just doubled-down on my NG position

Quote from illiquid:

note: with NG at steep contango, don't longs that keep rolling foward lose more than what's on the surface? If we stay at the same price for the next 4 months, you will still be losing the "premium" (forgive my ignorance of the proper term) on each rollover, no?)
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It would be impossible for NG to stay at the same price for the next 4 months, or even that close to the same price, because supply and demand tend to be more volatile in winter than right now. And supply and demand are ultimately what dictate the price of natural gas, or any commodity.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

It would be impossible for NG to stay at the same price for the next 4 months, or even that close to the same price, because supply and demand tend to be more volatile in winter than right now. And supply and demand are ultimately what dictate the price of natural gas, or any commodity.
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my thoughts exactly.


add the fact that NG tracks oil's trend, toss in a dash of Iranian extremists and trigger-happy north korea and you have a great environment for volatility.
 
Oct Nat Gas 4.48 and dropping. There could be a real selloff going into oct expiration this week. These 3 final days are going to be wild. Is 3.50 the next and final stop? :eek:
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Oct Nat Gas 4.48 and dropping. There could be a real selloff going into oct expiration this week. These 3 final days are going to be wild. Is 3.50 the next and final stop? :eek:
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i'm not going to call a bottom - one of my rules is that calling tops/bottoms is a suckers game.

hopefully we do go down and i can avg down into a cheaper basis.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

i'm not going to call a bottom - one of my rules is that calling tops/bottoms is a suckers game.

hopefully we do go down and i can avg down into a cheaper basis.
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What month are you long? Oct expires in 4 days!
 
Quote from krazykarl:

nothing to see here - move along.... :):)
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It's your money boss. Or should I say it was your money. Hope that works out for you. Certainly not a strategy I'd use. You said you're not trying to pick or call a bottom, but in essence that is what you're guessing at. Why average down? Why not just wait for a turn? So you miss the first part of the bounce. Commodities generally trend for awhile. Look at the sell off. Good luck on your trade. :)
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Oct Nat Gas 4.48 and dropping. There could be a real selloff going into oct expiration this week. These 3 final days are going to be wild. Is 3.50 the next and final stop? :eek:
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At this point, a dollar is actually not that much of a drop for ng. Those who are leveraged to the gills might not agree. But those with such disdain for leverage do not belong trading ng in the first place.

Fundamentally, ng is dirt cheap. Compared to crude (competes with ng to fuel power plants), natural gas has never been cheaper since futures trading began in the early 1990's.

Technically, ng looks awful, but that is always the case when something is fundamentally cheap.

I am long ng, but just a little, considering the size of the account.
 
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