just doubled-down on my NG position

Quote from billpritjr:

thats some pretty good SPIN on your long which should be a short.

When the trend goes up, you gonna close out and then go short?


:confused:
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nope - every short i've ever opened has gone bad - i do better long.

i am by no means a permabull but i would rather use leverage to my advantage.
 
I hope your right about your direction. I will average down in specific circumstances but always have an answer to the question - when will you know you're wrong?

I got my copy of tradestation cheap from someone who averaged down into corn I think as it achieved lower and lower lows. When his account was used up he didn't think he needed Tradestation any more. As a now Sierra Chart user I think he was right to abandon TS :)
 
Nat Gas is going to 3.50. Write it down. Record high inventories and everyone is on the wrong side. Not a good position to be in. Also, Citadel and JP Morgan bought the book at a substantial discount, they have more then likely offset the entire book at a decent profit. They are more then likely flat now. You have no one on your side. Record lows in the Nov and Dec contracts right around the corner. Good luck.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

when i say i double-down, im really fibbing. my trades progressively increase in size, moving my basis lower and lower with each entry. the key is to make sure you space out the trades enough to take advantage of the trend.
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It never occurred to you to sell out your position to buy back lower? Or to just trade short-term against your position as support after support got blown out?

Why the need to pretend to be a strong-hands player? Are you taking delivery and selling retail? Trade with weak-hands, and be proud of it.
 
Quote from illiquid:

It never occurred to you to sell out your position to buy back lower? Or to just trade short-term against your position as support after support got blown out?

Why the need to pretend to be a strong-hands player? Are you taking delivery and selling retail? Trade with weak-hands, and be proud of it.
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oh i make no pretense - i am trading weak hands, no question. this is just the style that works for me.
 
Actually, hasn't PTJ been quoted as saying he likes to pick tops and bottoms?


Quote from billpritjr:

why fight the trend?

Jesse Livermore....

Tudor Jones....

Ed Seykota....

Richard Dennis....

repeat after me....why fight the trend?

:confused: :confused: :confused: :(
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Quote from krazykarl:

or slit my wrist....


this is a trade of conviction - i have enough capital to avg down 3 more times - i've done it 3 already.

i'm at the point now where i need the trade to prove to me i am right - show me strength - before i commit more capital. once i see strength, i will avg down on a retrace.

for the record i do not use stops when i have conviction on a trade - this is the only position in my IB account.
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Karl, believe it or not I have been in your shoes. A few years back I took everything in my account I had made going long gold (from 302 to 370 ish) and shorted crude and continued to short crude from 24 to 31. This turned out realy ugly. I blew it up.

I say this not to imply this will happen to you and please ET members no flames. Just think about it. Project ahead and see if you can stand that drawdown. I could financially, but I had to take 2 years off from trading. I was devastated. It was alot of money to me. Alot of pyschological capital as well. I just don't want to see that happen to you. That's all. I hope it works out for you. :)
 
Some sage advice given to me I will pass on to you. When you find yourself in a hole and want to get out, the first thing to do is STOP DIGGING.
 
dude ... with so much money at stake the least you should do is buy the "logical trader" book and try to read a few choice nuggets of wisdom there
 
I hope it works out for you, kk.

But I got a baaad feeling about it...

Conviction like yours, with a big position, on a small account, with a new trader = t r o u b l e.

And, really, even if it works out NEVER DO IT AGAIN.

Buy a 5% of account position in a NG producer (with a dividend!) and hang on till it reaches a reasonable profit point. A trade like that, if given enough time, would have a VERY high success rate - above 90% I'd wager. And you could give it enough time with such a small position.

Sounds better to me, than sweating bullets at every tick...

Good luck! :cool:
 
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