just cover, market is oversold, fed will come to the rescue

Quote from Longhorns:

"In Nassim Nicholas Taleb's definition, a black swan is a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory


1) BSC lost 60% of it's market cap in the previous two weeks leading up to the close on friday.

2) BSC had MASSIVE out of the money put buying.

3) Rumors all over the street and news services that BSC had liquidity problems and would likely need a bailout.

By definition, how could anyone think the BSC news was a true "black swan"? (Disregard Daal...he also thinks that 1-4 risk/reward is good.)
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$2
 
Longhorns,

just name me ONE company with about 85 year track record being bid for 95% discount of its share price and having the management accept it in the last 100 years
 
Quote from Daal:

Longhorns,

just name me ONE company with about 85 year track record being bid for 95% discount of its share price and having the management accept it in the last 100 years
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BSC :D :D :D :D :D and next would be ABK
 
Quote from Daal:

Longhorns,

just name me ONE company with about 85 year track record being bid for 95% discount of its share price and having the management accept it in the last 100 years
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one more thing, the deal needs to be financed by a fed operation not used in decades. thanks
 
Quote from Daal:

it took a black swan to get the market down, if your idea of trading well is shorting oversold markets then hoping a 85 year old firm goes under then good luck to you, in the mean time the market could fly on your face. only on ET :D
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Not at all my definition of a Black Swan event.
 
Quote from Daal:

Longhorns,

just name me ONE company with about 85 year track record being bid for 95% discount of its share price and having the management accept it in the last 100 years
More...

Daal,

The main fact remains that BSC was known to be in dire straits. The street had hammered the stock, loaded up with puts, and emergency bailout rumors were everywhere.

By definition a black swan is "a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations."

1) BSC was hardly "a large impact". The DOW closed positive yesterday!!!

2) BSC was not "hard to predict" (as discussed above).

3) BSC was "a rare event"....I agree with you 100% on that one.

4) BSC was not "beyond the realm of normal expectations". Every news service reported they had "massive liquidity problems" and would need a bailout or be forced to declare bankruptcy.

BSC fails on 3 of the 4 "black swan" metrics.
 
Quote from Longhorns:

Daal,

The main fact remains that BSC was known to be in dire straits. The street had hammered the stock, loaded up with puts, and emergency bailout rumors were everywhere.

By definition a black swan is "a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations."

1) BSC was hardly "a large impact". The DOW closed positive yesterday!!!

2) BSC was not "hard to predict" (as discussed above).

3) BSC was "a rare event"....I agree with you 100% on that one.

4) BSC was not "beyond the realm of normal expectations". Every news service reported they had "massive liquidity problems" and would need a bailout.

BSC fails on 3 of the 4 "black swan" metrics.
More...

1. Dow may have been positive after massive Fed intervention but all other marekts around the globe were off anywhere between 2-5% on the news and intraday the US markets made news lows. That qualifies as a large impact in my book.

2. Yes trouble at BSC was predictable, what was not was a $2 valuation. That was several SD away from what the predicted range of BSCs valuation.

4. See 2.

A small BS event but a BS event in my book nonetheless. Each to his own, makes no real difference.
 
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