Just Buy The Dip

theapprentice said:
you'll do well.
No matter what, the markets are literally designed to go up over time. You're on the right side of the market when you only trade long. Buy dips and breakouts on the ES etc and i'll see you in a few years as 4k ES or so.
More...

I'm 58 years old now and do scalping of CL and ES to keep interested and make some money.

When I was younger and would recommend this for younger members I would identify 20 companies that I thought were great, safe dividend payers. Divide my money into 20 portions. I would then split that in half-so 40 portions.

When an identified stock fell 20% off a high water mark, buy it with 1 of the 40 portions. If it dropped another 20% buy with the other portion. If it didn't drop the 40% total, buy it again on some future 20% dip. Collect the dividends and NEVER sell.

Slow and steady wins the race and builds real wealth.


Good luck to all.
 
Looks like a double top on the NAZ at 7500. Went short via QID 1261 shares @ 37.14. I don’t want a total repeat of February, so I will keep QID as hedge, and reduce position sizing on new longs. Predicting a retest of 7000 come August 23 when the next round of tariffs on China go into effect. My reasoning is that markets don’t like uncertaintly.
 
DTB2 said:
I'm 58 years old now and do scalping of CL and ES to keep interested and make some money.

When I was younger and would recommend this for younger members I would identify 20 companies that I thought were great, safe dividend payers. Divide my money into 20 portions. I would then split that in half-so 40 portions.

When an identified stock fell 20% off a high water mark, buy it with 1 of the 40 portions. If it dropped another 20% buy with the other portion. If it didn't drop the 40% total, buy it again on some future 20% dip. Collect the dividends and NEVER sell.

Slow and steady wins the race and builds real wealth.


Good luck to all.
More...


I like this. Too many people today think a long-term investment means 3 years, plus they completely ignore dividend income.

But I would go further and recommend that parents include transfer of shares to their children on death and stress to those children that they should hold those shares for their life-time also and then pass them on to their children. And so on. Now that is long-term.
 
rolan said:
Looks like a double top on the NAZ at 7500. Went short via QID 1261 shares @ 37.14. I don’t want a total repeat of February, so I will keep QID as hedge, and reduce position sizing on new longs. Predicting a retest of 7000 come August 23 when the next round of tariffs on China go into effect. My reasoning is that markets don’t like uncertaintly.
More...


Its a worry that the Nasdaq has failed to breach its July high when the Dow and S&P have so this could be a fine trade. I won't be looking to short any of these unless we breach the subsequent swing lows. I hate shorting US indices, especially when they're a mile higher than their 200EMA's.
 
Stopped out of QID with a small gain of $300. I gave back quite a bit in profits, but Turkey didn’t rattle the markets too bad and they held up when Qatar said it would invest in Turkey, I think. I’ll still most likely reenter short next week as the new China tariffs get closer.

The major indices seem to have entered a range bound area lately, which is OK with my strategy, as it can navigate the chop. I do best with discretionary shorting against my long strategy, as I don’t mind if the short goes against me if size is not too large. Though I won’t include any ETF trades outside the backtesting portfolio.

8-17-2018 3-15-54 PM.png
 
tomorton said:
I like this. Too many people today think a long-term investment means 3 years, plus they completely ignore dividend income.

But I would go further and recommend that parents include transfer of shares to their children on death and stress to those children that they should hold those shares for their life-time also and then pass them on to their children. And so on. Now that is long-term.[/QUOTE

That's how you get to be in the uber rich club!
More...
 
rolan said:
Hi All,

I am starting a journal to document how well I can compare going forward to a system I developed. I am starting with $100K. I kept a journal here several years ago trading mostly stocks. I just recently got back into trading as I have been focusing on my career.

This time around, I will be trading just a few broad leveraged index ETFs. I am keeping it to a few so that I can take every trade given by the system. My goal is to match the monthly percentages of the strategy. This way, I will know I am on track to meet the goal of nearly 30% average annual returns. Profits will be reinvested, so position size will grow as equity increases.

Since 2009, the system has had a 40% draw down. So, I know I am putting myself out there to be ridiculed. To achieve above average returns, I feel you need to accept draw down. At least I have not discovered a way to avoid it. Besides, the system appears able to claw back in a relatively short amount of time.

When I came back to ET, it was good to see some people still actively posting such as d08 and Scataphagos, who had posted in my prior journal. Feel free to follow along, chime in, and ask questions.

View attachment 180928
More...

Yes, buying the dips is the way to make money, but how are we going to show what great traders we are by doing the easy thing?(!)

Interestingly, the long term sum of intraday trends is down in most common stocks. If you subtract the daily opening price from the daily closing price and sum all the results in a bull year, you will usually have a substantial negative number. A few years ago I did a study on AAPL. Although The stock about doubled in one calendar year, the results of the sum of the intraday open to close prices would have showed a loss totalling about 50% of original starting price.

Only If one has true intraday trading skills, as shown not just by consistent and market beating returns, but also by paying themselves appropiate compensation from excess returns, over buy and hold, for the time spent for intraday trading does it make sense from a financial standpoint.

The time spent attempting to learn intraday trading is certainly a speculative endeavor and as they say, time is money.
 
Just completed a study on AAPL for the time period from 1-2-17 to 8-17-18. AAPL gained $101.43. Open to close results showed a total gain of $48.16 and Close to next day open showed a gain of $46.01 for the 410 day study. Note: The sum of Open to close and Close to open do not add up to the overal gain of $101.43 perhaps to dividends or other adjustments. Data obtained from finance.yahoo.com. This is a change from historical patterns. In the past, when most common stocks were in a uptrend on the daily charts, intraday open to close would be negative, and vice versa. When I have more time, I will see if pattern changes in open to close performance has some predictive value.

I have created several indicators, conditions, and correlations for this spreadsheet. I should do a study based on various condition to see if there is a set of circumstances that has an edge. For example, when a stock gaps, is it with the stock's underlying trend as measured by a moving average? How far is the current price from its moving average converted to a percentage for a momentum measure. How much is the gap a percentage of stock price? Is there a substantial change in meaningful fundamentals associated with this move? By using these and some other variables and conditions, one may be able to price or value the current move and have a heads up whether to trade with the gap or fade it, depending on early, potentially confirmatory technical action.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top