Just as I said. China is going to win the trade war

dozu888 · Nov 7, 2019

S2007S said:
By the way if it were not for this trade war fed rates would be 3/4 higher. Now with the trade war fix on the way and the global economy less fearful of a recession shouldn't the fed jump the rates back to where they were...fat chance. Never ..fed should be jacking up rates after the announcement that tariffs were going away but that's not the case as you cannot upset wallstreet!

I don't think the 2 things are that related.... the GDP drag from the trade war is minimal for the US... the rate cut is really to match the rates around the world so at least we are somewhat competitive.... now was the fed influenced by Trump's pressure? perhaps.... but from Trump's perspective of course lower the better..

KINGOFSHORTS · Nov 7, 2019

We are seeing the final century of the American empire. The US will never recover and what you see has lots of, parallels to the last century of the Ottoman Empire.

Banjo · Nov 7, 2019

nooby_mcnoob said:
Until it gets worse. If you take away their jobs and they have no money to survive, you can expect problems. I know better off people like to think of poor people as lesser than them, but having been brought up in housing projects, there are so many brilliant people who just have no chance to get anywhere. It is these people who will create a wave of violent domestic discord. I know I would.

Edit: Dave Chappelle has a bit on this regarding meth heads btw.

There's no greater waste than the waste of human capital. One has to have spent time in the dregs of the human soup to truly comprehend the heinous impact on the species.

Overnight · Nov 7, 2019

KINGOFSHORTS said:
...The US will never recover and what you see has lots of, parallels to the last century of the Ottoman Empire.

They had a Pokémon Go craze that lasted for a month?

nooby_mcnoob · Nov 7, 2019

Banjo said:
There's no greater waste than the waste of human capital. One has to have spent time in the dregs of the human soup to truly comprehend the heinous impact on the species.

I get the sentiment but I would rephrase that as "there is no greater waste than a human who is not pursuing their own purpose"

Cuddles · Nov 7, 2019

dozu888 said:
I don't think the official version is released yet... but even the leftist NYT is giving some credit..

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/15/business/economy/china-trade-deal.html

but regardless what eventually is there, the point stays the same... when he started it 1.5 years ago we had none of these benefits... nada, zip.. so any benefit is a win... matter of fact, the opening of the financial services market is already a fact... this is law now in China.

now of course his political enemies want to spin it - ha he asked for a mile, but only got half a mile.... ignoring the fact that a complex negotiation like this is always give and take... and if your goal is 800 yards you NEVER start by asking for 800 yards.

Ok, let's concede that there's a "win" there, will it offset the GDP , wages, and economic loss for these last two years due to the trade war?

dozu888 · Nov 7, 2019

Here4money said:
Ok, let's concede that there's a "win" there, will it offset the GDP , wages, and economic loss for these last two years due to the trade war?

by far!

the market is saying 'loss what loss'... new high after new high even during the past 1.5 years.... GDP and wages have all been growing under Trump... average household income increased by $5000+, far greater than under Bush or Obama.

we are not an export economy, the drag on us is far lighter than on China, exactly why the pressure on China is higher.

thinking long term... how much do we lose on IP every year... can't even put a price tag on that... and what about world dominance, reserve currency status, one belt one road, Made in China 2025... these strategic long term considerations will have impacts for decades to come, far greater than the minimal drag for the past 1.5 years.

destriero · Nov 7, 2019

US loses MASSIVELY. It's not open to debate. It's just partisan talking points until Trump is indicted on 1/20/2021.

tsznecki · Nov 7, 2019

nooby_mcnoob said:
As for debt, most of the debt is owed locally, the USG could just decide to default on local debt.

Yes I'm sure that worked real well for Russia and Argentina in the past.

smallfil · Nov 7, 2019

dozu888 said:
by far!

the market is saying 'loss what loss'... new high after new high even during the past 1.5 years.... GDP and wages have all been growing under Trump... average household income increased by $5000+, far greater than under Bush or Obama.

we are not an export economy, the drag on us is far lighter than on China, exactly why the pressure on China is higher.

thinking long term... how much do we lose on IP every year... can't even put a price tag on that... and what about world dominance, reserve currency status, one belt one road, Made in China 2025... these strategic long term considerations will have impacts for decades to come, far greater than the minimal drag for the past 1.5 years.

A Chinese on a documentary I saw on YouTube was interviewed after the plant he was working on closed. He said he was happy with the $3 a day he got paid. All he wanted was food to eat and a little extra for his other needs. Now, he is being exploited by his communist masters big time and in turn, US companies like Nike sell $200 sneakers because of his efforts. Do not know how much the Chinese suppliers charge Nike for the sneakers but, probably, dirt cheap. Maybe, $10 a pair? Even at that, they are making a killing. China's economy will implode sooner than later. Those empty apartment buildings the Chinese bought as an investment are now cratering in value. Just like the 2008 real estate bubble in the US. This one is probably, 20 times as large and no signs of abating!