Just a little advice (worthwhile?) from an old timer about trying something new.

[jnbadger]

Stocks have always been so much easier. But it still takes a bit of insanity to stick with it long enough. I think futures takes a bit of sanity I do not have.

And I'm only partially kidding about the sanity part. People see my setup, which isn't any bigger that anyone else's who has been at this a long time, and they think it's just too much. I just tell them to not be too impressed. I mainly focus on a portion of the center screen, but I need the peripheral information that I can glance at a couple of times per minute.

It's hard to explain.

 

[rb7]

Stocks have always been so much easier. But it still takes a bit of insanity to stick with it long enough. I think futures takes a bit of sanity I do not have.

And I'm only partially kidding about the sanity part. People see my setup, which isn't any bigger that anyone else's who has been at this a long time, and they think it's just too much. I just tell them to not be too impressed. I mainly focus on a portion of the center screen, but I need the peripheral information that I can glance at a couple of times per minute.

It's hard to explain.

A picture is worth a thousand words!!!

Don't be afraid, show us some goodies....

 

[jnbadger]

A picture is worth a thousand words!!!

Don't be afraid, show us some goodies....

Oh I could show you some good crappy trades I took today in a choppy session. But what's the point? I'm good at stocks. I suck at futures.

 

[traider]

Perhaps read the entire post before posting your next question.

So I've noticed. I don't know how you guys do it. I'll do 50+ trades per day in stocks after getting 1000 alerts. I guess I'm just so used to refining my entries while being so busy that it is impossible for me to just sit and watch one market and wait.

Tom Baldwin is still my favorite interview in MW. He would just stand there and wait. Even at 57, I guess I need to be more active. I guess I found my niche a long time ago. Maybe I need to leave the indexes to the pros.

Why not fully automate?

 

[jnbadger]

Why not fully automate?

I was. And it was amazing. And then things got different. It's like the really good algos caught up to us or something. He were just a bunch a good ol boys doing no harm when it just didn't work. Many of us saw too much risk so we dropped out. A few months later our main programmer/creator got caught in a buy out while being short. He only lost about 40K. Minimal compared to what he had made with his program.

I might go automated with what I'm doing. But I like the good old life here in Wisconsin where I'll just still always think of the 'ol expectancy formula in my dreams. It's really all ya really need in trading, and in life.

Cheers.

JNB

 

[ktm]

It's funny you've found your success in equities and futures remain elusive. For me it's been the opposite for the last few decades. I feel like the behavior and patterns are pretty different because an equity is one thing and the index is 500 things. You've found your comfort zone and I think all of us that have done the same like to explore the edges to see what else may be out there. Over the years it changes as technology evolves. Many years ago it was just human fear and greed pushing everything around, now it's algo's and models driving the car.

 

[Sergio123]

If you are a mean reversion trader and wanted to try trading an index then why would you pick QQQ instead IWM? That makes no sense to me.

I am not sure what you are using but just a casual glance at the price charts should be enough to tell you which one to trade. It doesn't even need any complex tools.

 

[jnbadger]

If you are a mean reversion trader and wanted to try trading an index then why would you pick QQQ instead IWM? That makes no sense to me.

I am not sure what you are using but just a casual glance at the price charts should be enough to tell you which one to trade. It doesn't even need any complex tools.

I may not have worded my original post as effectively as I intended. I only use MR in stocks. I don't (and won't trade it anymore) use it for QQQ. I was just looking for technical patterns in QQQ, which completely contradicts a thread I started years ago stating that I would never use a technical pattern again. I guess I was right.

 

[ironchef]

This old dog, after failed day trading a decade ago and failed a few half hearted attempts in between, finally decided to give it another serious go this year.

The jury is still out but is this time different? Perhaps.

 

[jnbadger]

It's funny you've found your success in equities and futures remain elusive. For me it's been the opposite for the last few decades. I feel like the behavior and patterns are pretty different because an equity is one thing and the index is 500 things. You've found your comfort zone and I think all of us that have done the same like to explore the edges to see what else may be out there. Over the years it changes as technology evolves. Many years ago it was just human fear and greed pushing everything around, now it's algo's and models driving the car.

Excellent comment. Thank you.

I live on the edge as a human, and since the number of trades ( and profitability) of my mean reversion trades has decreased, I obviously explored new avenues. Even at 56, I get bored very easily. Although I am extremely disciplined and very profitable with my MR trades, I am always reaching for a creative outlet in the market. Come to think of it, I recently saw a presentation where the presenter offhandedly said most of us are seeking to solve the puzzle rather than to profit from it.

I really think that's why I tried it. I wanted to solve a new puzzle. Maybe my subconscious said "Hey you know you're an idiot for doing it, but get it out of your system."

I know many, many successful stock traders. Mainly because of what I do. They simply look at the relative strength or weakness of a stock compared to the overall market and trade it accordingly. And when it hit my scanner and starts going back up (or down) I'm in. It's that fucking simple.

I personally only know one futures trader, and he's in prison for faking his numbers for his clients. But I don't get out much.

As Mark Brown has clearly stated, it takes a whole new level of dedication to trade any index. I'll keep watching the NQ's. I thought I was going to start exclusively trading the QQQ, but this experience has reminded me that it's OK to be really good at something and suck at something else in the same field, and to just put 95% of my effort toward what I'm good at, and maybe dabble in the other 5.

After all, doesn't life and trading come down to the expectancy formula?