Just a little advice (worthwhile?) from an old timer about trying something new.

J

jnbadger

So as some of you know, I primarily focus on mean reversion in stocks. I've done very well (in part because of some of the P/L thread crew helping me out back in the early 2000's. Automation helped as well. 100% manual now).

But I got the itch to try trading QQQ after seeing so many obvious setups in the futures so many times over the years.

The point of this thread? I got addicted. Bad. But thank God I kept up the mean reversion at full size while only doing 100 shares in QQQ while making money every day in it this week, and then giving it all back today.

I thought I might be one of the cool kids who trade the indexes rather than the kid in the corner who just finds inefficiencies in stocks. (Turns out it ain't so bad in the profitable corner. Just find what works.)

I should've seen this coming after all of my experience. Nope. But here's the deal...

Before today, I always had a few screen shots of chart setups I'm looking for in the QQQ. Basically patterns I've seen again and again and again in the futures over the 27 years I've been doing this shit. Those have always been feeding from and old toshiba laptop, and are off to the side on a 27" next to charts of the futures.

Well, that old laptop somehow decided to not display those screenshots today. So I just say I'll wing it. I know what I'm doing.

Nope. I learned that I always need a guideline when I trade. I need an anchor when I trade. I need to know I'm not winging it. I need to know that those screen shots on my left screen are from trades I actually took, win or lose, and I constantly need to refer to that.

This might belong in the psychology section. Mainly because I have fallen into so many psychological traps over the years that I had forgotten about how far down a rabbit hole you can go before you realize "I shouldn't have done that". Which raises another good point.

Other than my QQQ trades lately, I never take a trade unless I know I'll be able to say "That was a good trade" if it's a loss.

Just venting I guess. But it felt good. And I hope it helps someone.

Thanks for listening.

JNB
 
What was the "mean" you thought it would revert to? I see a recent high in QQQ of $380,is that where you thought it was headed?
 
So you placed a long bet early on QQQ and was too stubborn to stop out when it started tanking,eventually giving away a week's profit?
 
No. I just unsuccessfully scalped all day. Finally realized I wasn't waiting for the best setups and did a little better than break even the rest of the afternoon.
 
Perhaps read the entire post before posting your next question.
MarkBrown said:
futures are high profile, high performance and serious commitment to "best of everything" type markets...
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So I've noticed. I don't know how you guys do it. I'll do 50+ trades per day in stocks after getting 1000 alerts. I guess I'm just so used to refining my entries while being so busy that it is impossible for me to just sit and watch one market and wait.

Tom Baldwin is still my favorite interview in MW. He would just stand there and wait. Even at 57, I guess I need to be more active. I guess I found my niche a long time ago. Maybe I need to leave the indexes to the pros.
 
jnbadger said:
Maybe I need to leave the indexes to the pros.
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I know a lot of traders get chewed up especially in the index futures. It's like walking a dog it wanders from side to side sniffing everything ( chop) and then when it sees a squirrel it off to the races (trend) . You are just a passenger hanging on to the other end of the leash, trying to react.

Indexes require knowing you have a consistent (pre-edge) a edge is not good enough you have to have an anticipation edge and throw reasoning out the window, it doesn't apply.

Stocks are much more sensible and weighted heavily to retail traders who are totally oblivious of selling short or hedging portfolios of managed money using futures for that. I'm 67 so anyone can do it but it is not just hard work it has to be an obsession of the mind.
 
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