Just a flu bro...literally

[Tsing Tao]

Reaching for what? Desperate for what? Where have i misspoken?

You are the desperate one. You believe the economy should re-open, but can’t admit to say “many will die” so you couch it in “rights” and then when I show you many examples of those “rights being violated” you counter with “that’s the law so it’s okay.” But this time isn’t okay because the Republican president wants the economy reopen.

I understand your MO now and this is a waste of time.

I do believe the economy should reopen, and would be happy to debate with you on whether it should, but you simply can't admit that government has shut down the economy and this has resulted in removing the ability for people to find a job. You're right, it is a waste of time. You've always shown yourself to be open to discussion and one of the few liberals on this site to accept differing viewpoints. Not sure why this has changed with this virus, but apparently it has.

You're right, its a waste of time to discuss if one isn't willing to be honest in their debate. MY MO, as you put it, is all about being honest and logical.

 

[jem]

and how many would die if its lifted in September vs how many will die and what damage will be done... keeping it shutdown.

If the article is not also discussing the damage being done and the risk of second wave damage...
its propaganda.

Several people have put forward the idea of only locking down the vulnerable people while allowing others to have no restrictions. This proposal will greatly increase the number of deaths.


Coronavirus: Over 100,000 could die in the U.K. if only vulnerable groups told to isolate, says professor

His team is working on a model for easing the lockdown and is due to release details in the coming days.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...roups-told-to-isolate-says-professor-11979126

More than 100,000 people could die this year if the coronavirus lockdown is lifted so only elderly and vulnerable people are shielded, an expert advising the government has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson said he was "very sceptical" that a scenario where the younger population resumed a normal life would be a "viable strategy".

He said it would require "a very high level" of effective protection for the vulnerable and elderly population, who are also the "least able to really be truly isolated".

Speaking to news outlet UnHerd, he said: "The most vulnerable people are also the people who most need care and have most interaction with the health system and are least able to really be truly isolated.

"And if you achieve just 80% shielding, 80% reduction in infection risk in those groups, we'd still project you get well over 100,000 deaths later this year through that sort of strategy."

Professor Ferguson, from Imperial College London, was the lead author of a report that said the pandemic could kill 250,000 people if the government did not enforce social distancing.

He said his team was now working on a model for easing the lockdown and would release details in the coming days.

He warned that life "cannot go completely back to normal" and that social distancing would need to remain until a vaccine is developed - something Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has said will not happen until at least next year.

"There will be a trade-off between the extent to which you relax measures and tolerate a level of transmission, and, therefore, mortality and health system demand, versus keeping case numbers as low as you can, which will probably require social distancing longer term," said Professor Ferguson.

He pointed towards the South Korean model of mass testing and contact tracing as "remarkably effective" for monitoring the virus infection rate.

South Korea has reported just 242 deaths to the disease, which is one of lowest rates in the world.

(More at above url)

 

[gwb-trading]

and how many would die if its lifted in September vs how many will die and what damage will be done... keeping it shutdown.

If the article is not also discussing the damage being done and the risk of second wave damage...
its propaganda.

Many people in this forum have pushed the approach of only locking down high risk people versus all people. The article addresses this specific question and shows that in the U.S. this would drive the number of deaths to 100K rather than the projected 25K level with the current lockdown strategy of all people with a progressive re-opening.

 

[LacesOut]

Ruling by decree? These people were voted into office, and now they're exercising their duties to the best of their abilities, and hopefully with the guidance of those who understand the subject matter.

You believe that...except when it comes to Trump...
hack..

 

[LacesOut]

If you die in a car accident with COVID - you die of COVID...you are counted as a COVID death..
If you had lung cancer, COPD, and were terminal...and you die in the hospital with COVID - COVID gotcha...

'Nuff said...

Absolute nonsense...

 

[Frederick Foresight]

If you die in a car accident with COVID - you die of COVID...you are counted as a COVID death..
If you had lung cancer, COPD, and were terminal...and you die in the hospital with COVID - COVID gotcha...

'Nuff said...

Absolute nonsense...

It's like you're trying to be stupid; going out of your way. No need. You're a natural.

 

[piezoe]

Just a couple points that may have some chance of being correct. I believe the Test the WHO is pushing is the same one the Germans use. In fact I believe the Germans provided it to the WHO. It must be, I would think, a reverse transcriptase PCR test for viral genetic material. It seems if the WHO is providing it, then we are not going to use it in the U.S. We seem to want to use the WHO to blame for our plight, so in that case we could hardly use their help. Actually I think we ourselves, and not the WHO, are responsible for having to totally shut down our country for such an extended period. It would seem we caused our own peculiar version of the Covid problem back in November of 2016.

I think that lady that is part of Mr. Jackass Trump's dog and pony show may be emphasizing antibody testing because there is a quick test for corona virus specific IgG or IgM , and it could be used for quick screening, Maybe!. Positives could be followed up with RT PCR. It seems that must be what she is driving at*, but I don't think that would be very satisfactory. The quick immunoglobulin tests are going to give lots of false negatives during the incubation phase, i.e., first few days after infection. I am almost certain of that. In fact I would think that these quick screening tests are only going to be somewhat reliable after at least 5-7 days minimum. That's not going to be nearly good enough if you want to nip the spread in the bud.

I think Deutschland has by now scaled up RT PCR to the point they could now test the entire country in less than a year. That's the kind of relative scale-up we need, and should have ready by now. But we don't of course... We have studiously avoided any sort of nationally coordinated effort to ramp up testing -- getting the "guberment" involved would really piss off the Tea Party and the Alt-Right, to say nothing of the NRA. On the other hand, we have been stellar at announcing testing. Just the other day I heard Jackass Trump announce that, "we are doing more testing than all other countries combined." Such fine announcing is quite an accomplishment to be proud of , wouldn't you say?

Just my pathetic, commie, lefty, Deep State, Fed and Soros loving opinion, jem.

________________________
*This is not to say that using serology to test everyone wouldn't be useful. It certainly would be useful from an epidemiology standpoint.

 

[jem]

interesting you called me out...
you soros loving, central bank loving...

you may wish to read this...
I am not saying you are wrong because maybe I did not fully understand what you were saying...

but it seems Germany is going to rely on apps and testing the sick and care givers.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview

Q: Should all countries be testing everybody?
A: I’m not sure. Even in Germany, with our huge testing capacity, and most of it directed to people reporting symptoms, we have not had a positivity rate above 8%. So I think targeted testing might be best, for people who are really vulnerable – staff in hospitals and care homes, for example. This is not fully in place even in Germany, though we’re moving towards it. The other target should be patients in the first week of symptoms, especially elderly patients who tend to come to hospital too late at the moment – when their lips are already blue and they need intubation. And we need some kind of sentinel surveillance system, to sample the population regularly and follow the development of the reproduction number.


much more at the link.

Just a couple points that may have some chance of being correct. I believe the Test the WHO is pushing is the same one the Germans use. In fact I believe the Germans provided it to the WHO. It must be, I would think, a reverse transcriptase PCR test for viral genetic material. It seems if the WHO is providing it, then we are not going to use it in the U.S. We seem to want to use the WHO to blame for our plight, so in that case we could hardly use their help. Actually I think we ourselves, and not the WHO, are responsible for having to totally shut down our country for such an extended period. It would seem we caused our own peculiar version of the Covid problem back in November of 2016.

I think that lady that is part of Mr. Jackass Trump's dog and pony show may be emphasizing antibody testing because there is a quick test for corona virus specific IgG or IgM , and it could be used for quick screening, Maybe!. Positives could be followed up with RT PCR. It seems that must be what she is driving at*, but I don't think that would be very satisfactory. The quick immunoglobulin tests are going to give lots of false negatives during the incubation phase, i.e., first few days after infection. I am almost certain of that. In fact I would think that these quick screening tests are only going to be somewhat reliable after at least 5-7 days minimum. That's not going to be nearly good enough if you want to nip the spread in the bud.

I think Deutschland has by now scaled up RT PCR to the point they could now test the entire country in less than a year. That's the kind of relative scale-up we need, and should have ready by now. But we don't of course... We have studiously avoided any sort of nationally coordinated effort to ramp up testing -- getting the "guberment" involved would really piss off the Tea Party and the Alt-Right, to say nothing of the NRA. On the other hand, we have been stellar at announcing testing. Just the other day I heard Jackass Trump announce that, "we are doing more testing than all other countries combined." Such fine announcing is quite an accomplishment to be proud of , wouldn't you say?

Just my pathetic, commie, lefty, Deep State, Fed and Soros loving opinion, jem.

________________________
*This is not to say that using serology to test everyone wouldn't be useful. It certainly would be useful from an epidemiology standpoint.

 

[piezoe]

interesting you called me out...
you soros loving, central bank loving...

you may wish to read this...
I am not saying you are wrong because maybe I did not fully understand what you were saying...

but it seems Germany is going rely on apps and testing the sick and care givers.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview

Q: Should all countries be testing everybody?
A: I’m not sure. Even in Germany, with our huge testing capacity, and most of it directed to people reporting symptoms, we have not had a positivity rate above 8%. So I think targeted testing might be best, for people who are really vulnerable – staff in hospitals and care homes, for example. This is not fully in place even in Germany, though we’re moving towards it. The other target should be patients in the first week of symptoms, especially elderly patients who tend to come to hospital too late at the moment – when their lips are already blue and they need intubation. And we need some kind of sentinel surveillance system, to sample the population regularly and follow the development of the reproduction number.

Totally agree. We should all be using the tracing app on our phones in conjunction with wide spread testing. Right now, we, in aggregate, are doing neither!. The testing should be done in priority order. The correct priority order is a matter of some disagreement.

 

[gwb-trading]

Totally agree. We should all be using the tracing app on our phones in conjunction with wide spread testing. Right now, we, in aggregate, are doing neither!. The testing should be done in priority order. The correct priority order is a matter of some disagreement.

The U.S. states need both widely available testing and contact tracing to successfully open up.

Germany and South Korea have both provided the best model for doing this.

Having an approach with full contact tracing reduces the number of tests that are necessary since you are testing a targeted population of people rather then randomly testing across the entire nation' population.