Just a flu bro...literally

[Bugenhagen]

You are literally demonstrating you complete and total ignorance. How much did he make in the past 12 months? I have no idea. He is the CIO of TPT. TPT is currently engaged by clients with a combined AUM in excess of $1 trillion.

Great, so you as a retail level dev guy, on your lonesome are looking at these lads and still can't explain what that ranking actually is?

Jesús wept. Jog on sunshine.

You have a lot to learn about human intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses.

 

[WeToddDid2]

I own an apartment near Prado Station on the metro here.. Have not started fixing it up yet...

I'm beginning to think you don't know what E# but you said that thing about Einstein.

OK, why are there traders who are I guess freaking amazing who bother with leader boards? If I had a reason to see them as more than odd fellows I'd look at Prado. How much money has he made in the past 12 months?

I know that GWB is a smart enough man. If he says prado said 60 days..

Here is an article you may be able to find some historical return info:

https://www.toledoblade.com/busines...bots-aqr-boss-wall-street/stories/20191013143

The master of robots left AQR. Now he's coming for Wall Street

 

[Bugenhagen]

Now excuse me, I need to catch up on some threads.

 

[jem]

I just read the paper....

1. I think the abstract is correct...
2. (His conclusions are virtually identically to what some of us have been saying here for weeks.)
The data sucked
we have to consider the costs of the lockdown
it may have been ok to briefly shutdown while collecting data
we should be customizing the response to different areas.

3. If you review his tables - Low Risk groups need to get back to work right now because we really will not be saving a significant amount of lives.... per his models....

4. --- note... his data suffers from the same issues that all the data we have seen suffers....
we really don't know how many people have been exposed... The more people we see who have antibodies the sooner the low risk groups should have returned to work.

"
Main Conclusions (1/2)

• Governments need protocols for “nowcasting” the mortality and transmissibility of the pandemic
–
For example, a random sample of 1,000 individuals would have quickly dispelled WHO’s assertion
that COVID 19 had a fatality rate of 3.4%
• Government statistics show that lockdowns have been successful at
–
slowing down the spread of COVID 19
–
reducing the number of deaths directly caused by this disease
• However, government statistics do not account for the loss of lives and livelihoods
derived from universal lockdowns
–
The objective of lockdowns should be to minimize the total loss of life, not only deaths directly
caused by the pandemic
–
In particular, large scale unemployment is a leading cause of drug abuse. Over the next months and
years, we will likely observe a spike in drug abuse related deaths , crime, and mental health issues


Main Conclusions (2/2)
• The K SEIR model shows that targeted lockdowns (on high risk populations) are
more likely to achieve the triple goal of
–
minimizing loss of lives
–
minimizing loss of livelihood
–
avoiding a depletion of medical resources
• A brief universal lockdown is warranted while we collect data regarding
mortality and transmissibility, followed by targeted lockdowns of the high risk
population
–
Low risk population should continue to practice sensible personal protection measures
•
Governments must learn from the mistakes of COVID 19’s crisis management,
and design targeted lockdowns in anticipation of COVID 20
–
There is not one size that fits all, and national governments must device tailored targeted
lockdowns based on their particular circumstances

 

[gwb-trading]

I just read the paper....

1. I think the abstract is correct...
2. (His conclusions are virtually identically to what some of us have been saying here for weeks.)
The data sucked
we have to consider the costs of the lockdown
it may have ok to briefly shutdown while collecting data
we should be customizing the response to different areas.

3. If you review his tables Low Risk groups need to get back to work right now because we really will not be saving a significant amount of lives.... per his models....

4. --- note... his data suffers from the same issues that all the data we have seen suffers....
we really don't know how many people have been exposed... The more people we see who have antibodies the sooner the low risk groups should return to work.

"
Main Conclusions (1/2)

•
Governments need protocols for “nowcasting” the mortality and transmissibility
of the pandemic
–
For example, a random sample of 1,000 individuals would have quickly dispelled WHO’s assertion
that COVID 19 had a fatality rate of 3.4%
•
Government statistics show that lockdowns have been successful at
–
slowing down the spread of COVID 19
–
reducing the number of deaths directly caused by this disease
•
However, government statistics do not account for the loss of lives and livelihoods
derived from universal lockdowns
–
The objective of lockdowns should be to minimize the total loss of life, not only deaths directly
caused by the pandemic
–
In particular, large scale unemployment is a leading cause of drug abuse. Over the next months and
years, we will likely observe a spike in drug abuse related deaths , crime, and mental health issues


Main Conclusions (2/2)
39
•
The K SEIR model shows that targeted lockdowns (on high risk populations) are
more likely to achieve the triple goal of
–
minimizing loss of lives
–
minimizing loss of livelihood
–
avoiding a depletion of medical resources
•
A brief universal lockdown is warranted while we collect data regarding
mortality and transmissibility, followed by targeted lockdowns of the high risk
population
–
Low risk population should continue to practice sensible personal protection measures
•
Governments must learn from the mistakes of COVID 19’s crisis management,
and design targeted lockdowns in anticipation of COVID 20
–
There is not one size that fits all, and national governments must device tailored targeted
lockdowns based on their particular circumstances

So what do you have to say about slides 25 to 30 and 31 to 34 showing that Strategy 2c with a Lockdown for 60 days is the best strategy and is adopted as the baseline strategy.

It should be noted that Prado states that it is 60 days from when the first case is reported. Waiting days/weeks after the first reported case to lockdown extends the required lockdown time.

=========from earlier =========

So basically what Lipton and Prado are stating in this paper is that a 60 day quarantine at home works best as the solution. This is supported by slides 25 through 30 (Strategies for Lifting Lockdowns) which uses the Strategy 2c (60 day lockdown) as the base case. Slides 31 to 34 show the effectiveness of alternatives.

The Main Conclusions on slides 38 and 39 support the earlier information for a 60 day lockdown while bringing up concerns over the unemployment leading to drug related deaths, crime, and mental health issues.

Most states in the U.S. have not even been locked down for 30 days yet. The Prado paper indicates that 60 days should be used before easing the lockdown for the best results.

So basically most states in the U.S. should wait at least another 30 days before considering opening for business according to the Prado paper.

This is very much in-line with what I have been presenting and what most health professionals are stating in terms of timeline. With the understanding that proper testing and contact tracing must be in place before a state can "open up" for business with a phased re-opening.

This also shows why the situation in Georgia is about to go horribly wrong due to their governor.

 

[jem]

he best strategy is most likely to let the low risk group out at 30 days or earlier... because relatively few deaths are saved by the sixty day scenario and you have no idea how many thousands of lives will be saved by not being shutdown.

hence his conclusion.... is broken out for high risk vs low risk groups...



"The K SEIR model shows that targeted lockdowns (on high risk populations) are
more likely to achieve the triple goal of
–
minimizing loss of lives
–
minimizing loss of livelihood
–
avoiding a depletion of medical resources
•
A brief universal lockdown is warranted while we collect data regarding
mortality and transmissibility, followed by targeted lockdowns of the high risk
population
–
Low risk population should continue to practice sensible personal protection measures
•
Governments must learn from the mistakes of COVID 19’s crisis management,
and design targeted lockdowns in anticipation of COVID 20
–
There is not one size that fits all, and national governments must devi(s)e tailored targeted
lockdowns based on their particular circumstances

So what do you have to say about slides 25 to 30 and 31 to 34 showing that Strategy 2c with a Lockdown for 60 days is the best strategy and is adopted as the baseline strategy.

It should be noted that Prado states that it is 60 days from when the first case is reported. Waiting days/weeks after the first reported case to lockdown extends the required lockdown time.

=========from earlier =========

So basically what Lipton and Prado are stating in this paper is that a 60 day quarantine at home works best as the solution. This is supported by slides 25 through 30 (Strategies for Lifting Lockdowns) which uses the Strategy 2c (60 day lockdown) as the base case. Slides 31 to 34 show the effectiveness of alternatives.

The Main Conclusions on slides 38 and 39 support the earlier information for a 60 day lockdown while bringing up concerns over the unemployment leading to drug related deaths, crime, and mental health issues.

Most states in the U.S. have not even been locked down for 30 days yet. The Prado paper indicates that 60 days should be used before easing the lockdown for the best results.

So basically most states in the U.S. should wait at least another 30 days before considering opening for business according to the Prado paper.

This is very much in-line with what I have been presenting and what most health professionals are stating in terms of timeline. With the understanding that proper testing and contact tracing must be in place before a state can "open up" for business with a phased re-opening.

This also shows why the situation in Georgia is about to go horribly wrong due to their governor.

 

[gwb-trading]

the best strategy is most likely to let the low risk group out at 30 days or earlier... because relative few deaths are saved by the sixty day scenario and you have no idea how many thousands of lives will be saved by not being shutdown.

hence his conclusion.... is broken out for high risk vs low risk groups...



"The K SEIR model shows that targeted lockdowns (on high risk populations) are
more likely to achieve the triple goal of
–
minimizing loss of lives
–
minimizing loss of livelihood
–
avoiding a depletion of medical resources
•
A brief universal lockdown is warranted while we collect data regarding
mortality and transmissibility, followed by targeted lockdowns of the high risk
population
–
Low risk population should continue to practice sensible personal protection measures
•
Governments must learn from the mistakes of COVID 19’s crisis management,
and design targeted lockdowns in anticipation of COVID 20
–
There is not one size that fits all, and national governments must devi(s)e tailored targeted
lockdowns based on their particular circumstances

Good points

 

[Daxtrader]

It is a local paper reporting on the death of someone from COVID you fucktactular waste of sperm.

What is the point of you posting this article regarding death rates, whether we should shut down the country, etc ? Stop embarrassing yourself and post somewhere else fucking idiot.

 

[Hotcakes]

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/

Nobody knew the denominator. Many scientists were saying this since february, but the media is in the business of selling fear and panic, along with all the other doomer sheep.

Fake News.

Burn down the American Way of Life. Freedom of Travel. Freedom of Employment. Freedom of Movement. Recreation. Burn it all down. We should all board up our homes, doors and windows. Let the entire nation go bankrupt. We can just print money indefinitely and let the medical "officials" at the World Health Organization (some Ethiopian with no medical degree), rule over America. That's the way the Constitution was written. So let it be done.

 

[newwurldmn]

Fake News.

Burn down the American Way of Life. Freedom of Travel. Freedom of Employment. Freedom of Movement. Recreation. Burn it all down. We should all board up our homes, doors and windows. Let the entire nation go bankrupt. We can just print money indefinitely and let the medical "officials" at the World Health Organization (some Ethiopian with no medical degree), rule over America. That's the way the Constitution was written. So let it be done.

Typical conservative talking points with no thought or understanding behind your words.

What freedom of employment and travel has been denied? I'm planning flying to Chicago in the middle of May for a fancy dinner. Will the federal government (those departments run by President Trump) prevent me from doing so? Should I bring my friend's AR-15 to the airport to defend my Freedom of Travel and Recreation?

With respect to the leader of the WHO? Do you have a problem with his being Ethiopian or of his medical degree? Because he has a PhD in medical research.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tedros_Adhanom

Was Mike Pence (a science denying "evangelical" christian with no medical degree) be more qualified to run the US response? He's not from Ethiopia.