Just a flu bro...literally

[WeToddDid2]

First let me state that you provided no link or source for your information above; I do not find it in Marcos Lopez de Prado's publications, his twitter feed, on his website or anywhere else. I question the source and expect you to back it up with a url proving that the above is from Marcos Lopez de Prado.

Marcos Lopez de Prado's publications has been focused on lessons the market can learn from the COVID-19 crisis - for example his "Three Quant Lessons from COVID-19" from March 31. There is no study or slides on the Diamond Princess to be found.

Three Quant Lessons from COVID-19
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/deliver...0121108117084065031082108029017115068&EXT=pdf

Second - the study of one closed environment is meaningless unless you study all closed environments. There are plenty of closed environments to select for study - multiple nursing homes, aircraft carriers and cruise ships where everyone has been tested.

The nursing homes which do not allow anyone in or out, and the staff must stay on site are a good study. Most of nursing homes demonstrate a death rate of over 70%. The residents being frail and elderly tend to skew the results.

Trying to take the figures from one single "closed environment" and attempting to apply it to the entire population is absurd. Why not start with the local nursing home as an environment and then assume that 70% of mankind will be knocked-off.

Okay to the rest of your argument. I don't totally disagree. I just highly respect Prado. Big data, manipulating data, cleaning data, applying /pioneering statistical models to data, and applying/pioneering machine learning algos to the data is what Prado does. He is considered basically the best in the world. His books and papers are my bibles wrt to algo trading.

Prado has an E# of 2. Einstein's E# is 2. Prado isn't just some idiot.

Below is a partial list of quants to give you an idea where Prado ranks wrt E#:

Prado has a better E# than Jim Simmons.

 

[WeToddDid2]

.........Never mind this post. Not worth it.

 

[gwb-trading]

I posted the link in a subsequent post that is below.


Below is the link to the paper:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3579712

The Diamond Princess example is on page 14.

Here is the tweet that has the link:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1251616867086741506

Thanks for providing the link. I will read the paper.

 

[Bugenhagen]

Okay to the rest of your argument. I don't totally disagree. I just highly respect Prado. Big data, manipulating data, cleaning data, applying /pioneering statistical models to data, and applying/pioneering machine learning algos to the data is what Prado does. He is considered basically the best in the world. His books and papers are my bibles wrt to algo trading.

Prado has an E# of 2. Einstein's E# is 2. Prado isn't just some idiot.

Below is a partial list of quants to give you an idea where Prado ranks wrt E#:

Prado has a better E# than Jim Simmons.

What's an E# besides the same as an F natural?

 

[WeToddDid2]

What's an E# besides the same as an F natural?

Well, I am a musician. I can't say that I am the biggest fan of F.

 

[Bugenhagen]

Well, I am a musician. I can't say that I am the biggest fan of F.

I used to play, you would miss F it is was gone.

I still don't know what this actually means though "Prado has an E# of 2. Einstein's E# is 2."

 

[Tsing Tao]

https://www.businessinsider.com/cha...aths-compared-heart-disease-cancer-flu-2020-4

More people died of COVID in the us in the last few weeks than other common causes of death.

And the rate of that death rate is going up like a rocketship.

Yes, and if we keep everyone locked away in their house with no chance of escape we can lower death rates even further. Of course we'll all eventually starve, but don't pay any heed to that!

 

[El OchoCinco]

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

People keep asking why we treating this differently than the H1N1 that happened in 2009 under Obama...

well in a year we had just under 13,000 deaths, assume just under 20,000 at the high end.

How many COVID deaths in the U.S. right now? And we are not done...

It is not the same as the previous pandemic.

 

[Tsing Tao]

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

People keep asking why we treating this differently than the H1N1 that happened in 2009 under Obama...

well in a year we had just under 13,000 deaths, assume just under 20,000 at the high end.

How many COVID deaths in the U.S. right now? And we are not done...

It is not the same as the previous pandemic.

If only those COVID death statistics were trustworthy.

 

[El OchoCinco]

If only those COVID death statistics were trustworthy.

it is easy to deflect something and say you don't trust the numbers. death numbers are more reliable because when someone has died they most likely were in the hospital and being treated for COVID and confirmed positive. These numebrs are not being manufactured by a central place, hospitals are reporting them locally.

Also I am only referring to U.s. numbers not globally.