Just a flu bro...literally
- Thread starter Daxtrader
- Start date
Below is probably the best estimate for the actual fatality rate out there. Prado is estimating it to be approx. 0.42% with 95% confidence bands of 0.33% and 0.75%.
If this is correct, which is most likely is because Prado is a genius, the WHO is run by a bunch of complete fucking retards. The entire WHO should be marched into some of their communist gulags on live TV.
If this is correct, which is most likely is because Prado is a genius, the WHO is run by a bunch of complete fucking retards. The entire WHO should be marched into some of their communist gulags on live TV.
South Korea and Germany are the two countries that have responded best to COVID-19 around the globe. Both countries have implemented wide-scale testing and contact tracing. Germany even traced its first community case back to a salt shaker.
Even with the scale of testing with contact tracing in Germany and South Korea; the reported death rate in Germany is 3.11% and in South Korea is 2.18%.
Certainly improved testing will continue to properly define the exact number of infections in the U.S. and elsewhere. I expect improvements over the upcoming months which will help defined the exact death rate and R0 for COVID-19.
From a death rate perspective it becomes a question of which grows at a greater rate -- the numerator with previously uncounted deaths being added to the COVID-19 total, or the denominator with the total number of positive infection cases.
Even with the scale of testing with contact tracing in Germany and South Korea; the reported death rate in Germany is 3.11% and in South Korea is 2.18%.
Certainly improved testing will continue to properly define the exact number of infections in the U.S. and elsewhere. I expect improvements over the upcoming months which will help defined the exact death rate and R0 for COVID-19.
From a death rate perspective it becomes a question of which grows at a greater rate -- the numerator with previously uncounted deaths being added to the COVID-19 total, or the denominator with the total number of positive infection cases.
De Prado is saying the the 3.11% and 2.18% that you mentioned above are grossly overestimated because the number of confirmed infections are only a fraction of the actual infections. This has been the case historically as well with other diseases. He provides H1N1 as an example. The initial fatality rate was 5.1%. The real number is 0.02%.
In case you are not familiar with de Prado, below is his bio:
Prof. Marcos López de Prado is the CIO of True Positive Technologies (TPT), and Professor of Practice at Cornell University’s School of Engineering. He has over 20 years of experience developing investment strategies with the help of machine learning algorithms and supercomputers. Marcos launched TPT after he sold some of his patents to AQR Capital Management, where he was a principal and AQR’s first head of machine learning. TPT is currently engaged by clients with a combined AUM in excess of $1 trillion. Marcos also founded and led Guggenheim Partners’ Quantitative Investment Strategies business, where he managed up to $13 billion in assets, and delivered an audited risk-adjusted return (information ratio) of 2.3.
Concurrently with the management of investments, since 2011 Marcos has been a research fellow at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science). He has published dozens of scientific articles on machine learning and supercomputing in the leading academic journals, is a founding co-editor of The Journal of Financial Data Science, has testified before the U.S. Congress on AI policy, and SSRN ranks him as the most-read author in economics. Marcos is the author of several graduate textbooks, including Advances in Financial Machine Learning (Wiley, 2018), and Machine Learning for Asset Managers (Cambridge University Press, 2020).
Marcos earned a PhD in financial economics (2003), a second PhD in mathematical finance (2011) from Universidad Complutense de Madrid, and is a recipient of Spain's National Award for Academic Excellence (1999). He completed his post-doctoral research at Harvard University and Cornell University, where he is a faculty member. Marcos has an Erdős #2 according to the American Mathematical Society, and in 2019, he received the ‘Quant of the Year Award’ from The Journal of Portfolio Management.
Below is a link to the paper:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3579712
To me the issue is not about death rate. I don't care if it is .02 or 2%.
All I care about is what happens if you get re-infected or if our immune system really kills the virus or does it stay latent in the nervous system - herpes style.
That is what I want to know. Does anyone have data on this?
All I care about is what happens if you get re-infected or if our immune system really kills the virus or does it stay latent in the nervous system - herpes style.
That is what I want to know. Does anyone have data on this?
Last edited:
Seriously? How old are you, and when was the last time you had a cold sore on your mouth? And did you ever have Chicken Pox?
How old do I have to be?
One is a DNA virus, the other a RNA virus. Please do your research before attempting to answer questions you don't know anything about.
Wait for the peer review of Santa Clara results.
Its amazing how we are going from must be 0.06! to 0.33 to 0.75, (Germany has about 0.8 to 1.4 estimate right now) in a blink, by guys who are just, oh I got this, I got this ting and dis ting, bargaining like kids for a result they want.
Its amazing how we are going from must be 0.06! to 0.33 to 0.75, (Germany has about 0.8 to 1.4 estimate right now) in a blink, by guys who are just, oh I got this, I got this ting and dis ting, bargaining like kids for a result they want.
Did you answer the questions I have posed to you?
No. DOCTOR.
Herpes Simplex 1, a virus which everyone has latent in their body, and causes cold sores. That shit goes away in most people by the time they are in their late 20s. Chicken Pox. You get that thing when you are young, you can get Shingles when you get old.
If you never had Chicken Pox? Varicella or whatever? Then you cannot get Shingles. Stuff like that.