Quote from wartrace:
Putz Master,
Are you concerned about a broad market decline in the next few months. I would be nervous selling put spreads in this market personally. I am just a newbie so what do I know?
Just curious about your outlook on the general market?
I'm generally cautious between mid Sept and late Oct. But overall, I invest with the same attitude year round. That being, I like my stocks to have reasonable and tested L-T downside tech support per the 1 - 2 year chart, near the strikes I select.
I like to have a reasonable otm safety cushion, in case the market gaps down suddenly.
That otm cushion buys me time to close a trade down, before it does ITM.
I also prefer narrow strike gaps of 1 - 2 points vs 5 points, as the more narrow strike gaps result in my credits holding their value better during volatile times. The more narrow gap helps to minimize the negative affects of a rise in VIX and IV during market/stock drops.
As for being nervous selling put spreads in this market,..... it pays to be cautious in any market.
I wish I had been even more cautious during the 50% market crash of 2007 - 2008.
OUCH!
But generally speaking, I find stocks with the best prices and trades with a high probability of success,... by investing during times of uncertainty.
To quote Buffet and others,.... "Be cautious when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are cautious."
I'm fairly confident of my trades, and so I'm willing to share and discuss them with others in "real time", vs merely in hindsight. There may be some losses going foward, as none of us are perfect investors. But I don't fear an uncertain market.
I fear over valued stocks. I fear over concentration in one stock or industry. I fear over concentrating my cash over just 1 - 2 months. I fear companies with excessive debt. I fear stocks trending down with no pretested tech support near my strikes. I fear no otm safety cushion and no tech support, as now there's no time to react to a sudden drop. I fear investors feeling bullish.
The one thing I don't fear, is investors being nervous and cautious. That just tells me they have already sold. And that tells me prices are now more reasonable, better values, and safer than they used to be.
I'd much rather be investing when prices are lower than when they are higher and everyones optimistic.
The issue is not my strategy. The issue is my stock and strike selection, and how disciplined I am when it comes time to manage the risk.
As a general rule, by managing the risk via the criteria I use, to set up the trade, I have less to manage after it become active.
Finally note.... I rarely invest on up market days. Most of my trades take place when the market is dropping.
I'm more interested in price values than fluctuating trends on this or that day.
Putz Master