JT's ES Trades

Originally posted by torntech.com


High TA,

Thanks for your comments. Could you please elaborate on the reward:risk ration ("at least 2:1 preferably 3:1"). What does this mean, and how could it be applied in practice?

Thanks. /JT
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Before I take a trade I assess 2 things: the stop price and possible upside resistance. Obviously I don't know how high a stock will go but I do know where I will exit if it goes against me.

Let's say you're looking at a 5-minute chart (my favorite) and there's a pivot low at 22.00, with a previous pivot high/resistance at 22.50. The current price is 22.10. I take the trade because my stop would be approx 10 cents below entry price with a possible upside target of 22.50. In other words I'm risking a dime to make a possible 50 cents hence 5:1. That's a simplified example but it shows risk-to-reward as being positive.

Now let's assume I wait until the price climbs to 22.35 before entering the trade. A logical technical stop would still have to be at 22.00 but now I'm facing possible upside resistance at 22.50. Here's I'm risking 35 cents to make a possible 15. This is a reward:risk of less than one. I'm risking more on the trade than I'll probably make before the srock runs into resistance.

That's it in a nutshell
 
Originally posted by x-or
JT, keep up the good work.
I don't want to confuse your mind, but as you just added IB market depth to your toolbox I want to give you my opinion about it:

My trading improved when I removed it of my screen. For 2 reasons :
- The refresh time for the book was too slow (for ESTX50). My trading was based on some delayed informations. (I heard that is not the case for ES/NQ so may be I'm wrong on this one).
- Many times I fell into the trap : Buy when big BIDS come into the book and SELL when big ASK come in. I should have been careful with that. There are many fakes. And very often, big sellers get in when they feel a good move up (and buyers get in on a relative weakness).

With time I concluded that the only useful informations are :
- Bid/Ask/Last Price/Size and their action/behaviour.
- Charts (visual memory of past action).

The less information (indicators) I used the better was my trading.
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I agree with you that Market Depth on the emini's can be full of games, similar to L2 with Nasdaq stocks. However there are times where it can be of some use in exiting a position.

With the ES contract, I use it to try and save a few ticks on a stop. If my stop price is hit on a trade then I am out, no matter what. The question is though, do I get out at my stop price or do I look for a quick bounce to get out a few ticks better off. The market depth can help with this. For a long trade stop, if I see a decent size at my stop price (300+ contracts) then I will not take my stop immediately but will look at the depth on the offer. If the offers above stay in double digits or low 3 digits, then there is a good chance that there will be a temporary backfill that will provide a better exit. If I see that the 300+ contract bid is getting eaten into quickly then I will take my stop immediately. If you can save a point a day doing this then it can make a difference to bottom line at the end of the year. I've found that the trick to this is to make sure you are committed to exiting when the price level is hit and don't 'hope' that the trade will reverese completely and put you into a profit situation. It is a method for reducing losses only.

The flip side to this (as there always is a flip side) is that the big boys may use a large bid to sell some size into, so there is a chance that you will get caught as a couple of triple digit trades hit the bid and it drops quickly. Again, the market depth helps here as you can see that the next best bid has average size (150-200 contracts) so you can feel relatively safe that your maximum slippage will be 1/4 point.

It is also possible to use the same idea for entering a position. However, only using depth for a better entry, not as a reason for entering a trade.
 
JT

I put my very first trade in future market in 09/2000. After a ugly start, I spend the 2001 year to find the good market/product, broker, time frame, strategy.
During this period, I got the ugly “reject screen” 3 times. That saved me. When it happened I came back to paper trading and fix what went wrong.

I consider that I’ve been trading “seriously” from the beginning of the year.
After some poor results and a big disaster day in June, I decided to regroup & work on myself (real trading plan, discipline, patience).

Basically my strategy is like yours, with different criteria for exits and additive rules for daily money management. For some, it could seem very discretionary. But the intuitive part (mainly the enter) is based on good experience of price actions during the opening wich is my time of day. The other part (exits and mm), the more important IMHO, is bullet proof.

I’ve been profitable for 9 weeks. I have to admit that I’m little surprised about that but when I think of it, the real change came from writing down a plan and sticking to it.

From what I see, you’re on the good way. Good luck.
 
Code: 
Day	Trade #	Type	B/S	Time	Price	B/S	Time	Price	Quant.	Gross	Net	Time held
												
12-Sep	1		SLD	13:39	925.50	BOT	13:42	926.00	1	-10.00	-14.80	0:03:23
	2		BOT	13:55	925.50	SLD	13:58	926.50	1	20.00	15.20	0:02:39
	3		SLD	14:03	927.00	BOT	14:06	926.50	1	10.00	5.20	0:03:09
	4		BOT	14:16	926.00	SLD	14:17	926.50	1	10.00	5.20	0:01:51
	5		SLD	14:29	922.50	BOT	14:37	921.50	1	20.00	15.20	0:08:09
	6		BOT	14:37	922.00	SLD	14:38	922.50	1	10.00	5.20	0:00:42
	7		SLD	14:38	923.00	BOT	14:42	921.00	1	40.00	35.20	0:03:56
	8		BOT	14:42	921.00	SLD	14:45	920.00	1	-20.00	-24.80	0:02:12
	9		SLD	14:46	920.50	BOT	14:47	920.00	1	10.00	5.20	0:01:03
	10		SLD	14:48	920.50	BOT	14:52	920.00	1	10.00	5.20	0:04:11
	11		SLD	14:55	918.50	BOT	14:55	917.50	1	20.00	15.20	0:00:28
	12		SLD	14:56	918.00	BOT	14:57	917.00	1	20.00	15.20	0:00:50
	13		BOT	14:57	916.50	SLD	14:58	917.00	1	10.00	5.20	0:00:41
	14		BOT	15:00	917.00	SLD	15:01	916.50	1	-10.00	-14.80	0:00:50
	15		BOT	15:03	916.50	SLD	15:06	918.50	1	40.00	35.20	0:03:08
	16		SLD	15:07	918.00	BOT	15:12	917.50	1	10.00	5.20	0:05:15
	17		SLD	15:14	917.50	BOT	15:16	917.00	1	10.00	5.20	0:02:02
	18		SLD	15:21	920.50	BOT	15:22	919.50	1	20.00	15.20	0:00:29
	19		SLD	15:24	919.50	BOT	15:25	918.50	1	20.00	15.20	0:00:57
	20		SLD	15:26	919.00	BOT	15:29	920.50	1	-30.00	-34.80	0:03:49
	21		BOT	15:29	920.50	SLD	15:31	919.50	1	-20.00	-24.80	0:02:01
												
	Total								21	190.00	89.20	0:02:28

Slow trading between 1-2.30PM. During the few days I've been trading the NQ, I haven't seen so little action. Very often the spread was 1 full point.

Managed to keep my losses to a reasonable level. Shouldn't have traded T20&21.

Intuitive trading all day long. Felt good. 16 wins - 5 losses.

/JT
 
You seem to be a pretty good intuitive trader. I think a lot of TA just bogs down your ability to act on your intuition.

Keep up the good work and watch out for over-trading -- unless you are a scalper. :)
 
Lobster .. come on.

torntech.com,

Make sure you are trading the December contracts, as they are now the front month "NQ Z2" ... NOT NQ U2

Is that what you were trading today?
 
Originally posted by aphexcoil
Lobster .. come on.

torntech.com,

Make sure you are trading the December contracts, as they are now the front month "NQ Z2" ... NOT NQ U2

Is that what you were trading today?
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Looking at the trade log, it seems that he was trading U2.
 
Originally posted by Lobster
Wait until you see the spread next week!
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oh wow......if this is true.....this is quite hilarious!! sorry to laugh at you JT..it happens to the best of us!
 
Lobster, aphie, Quah, Gordon Gekko Thanks guys. No you have embarrassed me. My face is red. Anyone else can tell I'm a real rookie?

Wednesday:
U2: 177K
Z2: 4K

Thursday:
U2: 27K
Z2: 162K
Taking this into consideration, I probably was doing OK (trading wise).

When are most of you switching contract month?

BTW: When does the future stop trading at LDT? Clearly I made my last trade at 3.31pm. I guess it must be 4.15pm ET????

Anyone care to send me a reminder in December????

Thanks again! /JT
 
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