JS Global Macro Notes

[darkhorse]

A Conspicuous Absence of Window Dressing

Being a Friday, we will also get to see how much conviction there is, re, taking longs home into the weekend... a slide into the close would be seriously no bueno (for bulls)...

Read more: http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012/09/a-conspicuous-absence-of-window-dressing/

 

[deucy28]

Came across this today from Reuters. Pretty good article that puts all the goods vs the bads of USA status quo. Almost bullet point in style, it is a quick read, current, and gets its arms around our condition and prognosis.

http://news.yahoo.com/why-us-economy-flashing-conflicting-signals-160631605--finance.html

 

[darkhorse]

China's Black Box, Plus Three Reasons Energy and Base Metals are Strong

With the global slowdown thesis growing stronger, not weaker, why are energy and base metals names showing such constructive price action? Here are three hypotheses...

Read more: http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012...easons-why-energy-and-base-metals-are-strong/

 

[Chuck E. Cheese]

Does you theory applicable to Rare Earth Metals? This is a very niche market and the supply/demand is not that transparent due to the Chinese supply uncertainty. I believe price is dropping and still have more room to go lower. Does RE producers like MCP are a good buy or I'm still too early?

Thanks.

 

[darkhorse]

Quote from Chuck E. Cheese:

Does you theory applicable to Rare Earth Metals? This is a very niche market and the supply/demand is not that transparent due to the Chinese supply uncertainty. I believe price is dropping and still have more room to go lower. Does RE producers like MCP are a good buy or I'm still too early?

Thanks.

Hard to say... observation is not that precise... but I certainly wouldn't be excited by MCP's chart. No real evidence of fresh accumulation or downtrend turnaround there.

 

[darkhorse]

Live by the Bellwether, Die by the Bellwether?

Monday's action was certainly a huge disappointment for bulls. After a major run-up on surprisingly positive ISM data, the majors mostly gave it all back. Tech and small caps even managed to close red (thanks to the aforementioned AAPL)...

Read more: http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012/10/live-by-the-bellwether-die-by-the-bellwether/

 

[darkhorse]

Hey Bill Gross, Why So Serious?

Rather than worry about what could happen "some day" with the U.S. -- sorta like the constant worry over what will happen "some day" with Japan -- it seems far more sensible to pay attention to here-and-now developments...

Read more: http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012/10/hey-bill-gross-why-so-serious/

 

[darkhorse]

The Line of Scrimmage

Bulls still have the ball, by dint of rising moving averages, the major indices within sprinting distance of new highs, and constructive patterns still intact on the weekly charts.

But the quarterback got sacked on Tuesday as the crude oil strong safety rushed in for a hit...

http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012/10/the-line-of-scrimmage/

 

[darkhorse]

Killing the Wrong Pig

The pig to be focused on at this point is protectionism risk, not excessive concern over safe-haven debt-to-GDP ratios...

Read more: http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012/10/killing-the-wrong-pig/

 

[ammo]

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2012/02/pdf/text.pdf read pages 4 and 5 of the imf meeting in tokyo