JS Global Macro Notes

[kjones5159]

That'd likely be into next week, I'm giving the headline euphoria until monday, IMO a good jobs report tomorrow will lower stocks as it puts QE3 a little "further out" I guess I could phrase it that way.

SPX holding around 1430.

Mr. Market's thoughts:

Yay Eurozone bonds won't run increasingly rampant, but what about everything else? Fundamentals? Oh shit, take profit.

Spain may not have to borrow at 6.5% anymore, but they're still broke. Draghi is kicking the can again.

And there's always Greece. The Greek police have gone on strike to protest the austerity that cuts heavily into their pensions, bond buying or not, that society won't hold up much longer, 24% unemployment and ever increasing pay/job/benefit slashing by the Greek govt. to meet austerity demands? Not promising.

Bonds or no bonds, shit is falling apart.

 

[pentothal]

of course shit is falling apart. And i also believe there is a non zero probability that we are going to see another 50-60% drop before this secular bear market is over. But I haven't seen a bar combination that signals a top. Of course it all depends on what your time frame is, mine is medium and long term (depending on the accounts) so i am waiting for a confirmation...

Do you trade only the S&P?

 

[darkhorse]

Quote from pentothal:


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that is not a given. Europe lived trough the same (worst?) economical turmoil in the '70s and did not move towards an authoritarian model even if politicians tried again and again. The reason in my opinion is that the people were raised by the generation that lived trough that so it was difficult for the elites to move into that direction no matter how hard they tried.

For the West, the 70s weren't even all that bad from an economic perspective. There is a difference between GD-like conditions, or the aftermath of upheaval and war (where one is loser rather than victor), vs unpleasant but democratically stable economic hardship.

Re, firebombs, teargas etc, "plenty of times" in the US? Again, no, not really. There have been isolated incidents like Kent State and Vietnam protest, and lone nutjobs like the Unabomber and Timothy McVeigh, but not mass participation protests in which all ages and generations participate violently, as pensioners commit public suicide in protest, against a backdrop of nazis getting elected to parliament, more than half a year's worth of GDP in investment capital fleeing the banks on a rolling 3-month basis (Spain), and a youth unemployment rate of +50%.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree... I'm not saying it *can't* happen in the United States, but again, creeping corporatism within a stable societal structure and the kind of breakdown we are talking about (and witnessing in Europe) just isn't the same thing.

 

[kjones5159]

No, I normally never trade indexes, I'm using volatility ETFs for this one, yeah I know, but it's what is available to me right now so that's what I'm using. My target is a 5% or so correction in the S&P unless sonething drastic happens.

 

[kjones5159]

Quote from pentothal:

of course shit is falling apart. And i also believe there is a non zero probability that we are going to see another 50-60% drop before this secular bear market is over. But I haven't seen a bar combination that signals a top. Of course it all depends on what your time frame is, mine is medium and long term (depending on the accounts) so i am waiting for a confirmation...

Do you trade only the S&P?

Bars? Candles are way better IMO, more human element gets incorporated in the chart, plus the means in the candles are huge vs. only high and low range in bars, much more information presented in the same space.

 

[pentothal]

I used bars as a generic term, I use candles in my charts.
volatility ETFs, you mean the VXX and similar ? or the volatility/strategies like VOLT?

 

[pentothal]

Quote from darkhorse:I think we'll have to agree to disagree... I'm not saying it *can't* happen in the United States, but again, creeping corporatism within a stable societal structure and the kind of breakdown we are talking about (and witnessing in Europe) just isn't the same thing. [/B]

fair enough!
btw good job on your website, I really enjoyed the 2 interviews with Peter Brandt and the Lady Trader.

 

[kjones5159]

Quote from pentothal:

fair enough!
btw good job on your website, I really enjoyed the 2 interviews with Peter Brandt and the Lady Trader.

I second this, I enjoyed the Brandt interview but I haven't come across the Lady Trader one.

I check your new articles regularly on mercenarytrader, good stuff.

@pentothal: VXX, XIV (inverse) and UVXY if I'm feeling frisky.

 

[darkhorse]

Quote from pentothal:

fair enough!
btw good job on your website, I really enjoyed the 2 interviews with Peter Brandt and the Lady Trader.

Thanks! Still have to put up the final installment on the Deep Alpha one, cheers for the reminder.

 

[pentothal]

Quote from kjones5159:

@pentothal: VXX, XIV (inverse) and UVXY if I'm feeling frisky. [/B]

I didn't know UVXY, it is insane!!