JS Global Macro Notes

Quote from darkhorse:

In a way, this is what we are getting. As corporations reduce costs via more productivity from a smaller employee base, and better use of labor-saving technology, cost of goods goes down (apart from food and energy, a different story).

The problem with a potential deflationary cure is that mid-level wrench-turning type jobs are disappearing at a rapid rate - think assembly line workers replaced by robots - and the jobs materializing to take their place are typically at the lower end of the service industry and pay maybe half as much (or less). In spread terms, the bottom is falling out of the pay scale much faster than goods and services costs are falling. So the poverty / unaffordibility spread is widening.

A staggering percentage of Americans already rely on the state in some way shape or form. That percentage is likely to increase. The divide between haves and have nots is going to grow so wide in the coming years, even more redistribution from the state will be the only possible way to rectify it. I am not commenting on whether this is good or bad, moral or immoral, desirable or undesirable, only foreseeing an inevitable response to a growing problem.

I agree here, but I meant monetary deflation, reduced money supply/ higher interest rates = stronger dollar with which consume more at cheaper prices as far as imports.

Lower consumer prices, the robotic assembly lines and things like that increase profit margins because the savings are not passed down, which would be if anything more nominally inflationary, would it not?
 
Simple example, Ford has a 100 person factory, new technology allows them to replace 40 workers with machines and increase their profit margin 10%, as the savings aren't passed down to the consumer, they are kept as an increased margin, the raw material suppliers to Ford see this and raise their prices to Ford, who is then forced to raise consumer price to maintain the new margin. Ad infinitum.
 
Quote from kjones5159:

I agree here, but I meant monetary deflation, reduced money supply/ higher interest rates = stronger dollar with which consume more at cheaper prices as far as imports.

Lower consumer prices, the robotic assembly lines and things like that increase profit margins because the savings are not passed down, which would be if anything more nominally inflationary, would it not?


Too many complex relationships here to simplify into basic if / then statements.

The global economy is already on a deflationary trend. Europe is falling into recession, China likely as well, U.S. best of the bunch but barely head above water. The central banks are terrified that tight monetary policies could tip the whole thing into death spiral.

Friendly advice: If you are early in your market journey, don't overfocus on the complicated nuances of macro. This is like looking for muscle definition in the gym before the basic foundation of fitness and strength is built.

Focus on the basic movements, and trading opportunities born of flexibility and awareness, rather than trying to suss out the complicated stuff. If your goal is to be a trader and make money, that is.
 
Quote from kjones5159:

Simple example, Ford has a 100 person factory, new technology allows them to replace 40 workers with machines and increase their profit margin 10%, as the savings aren't passed down to the consumer, they are kept as an increased margin, the raw material suppliers to Ford see this and raise their prices to Ford, who is then forced to raise consumer price to maintain the new margin. Ad infinitum.

It is nowhere near this simple. See my prior post. Or better yet read Beinhocker, then come back.
 
Quote from kjones5159:

I've read 'How Change Happens' by Mauldin before, I didn't rememver who wrote the article though. Brilliant stuff.

That essay came in my Aug 17 email. Here is a public outlet:

http://www.businessinsider.com/mauldin-how-change-happens-2012-8

John Mauldin's essays are long, but well worth the time:

... easy to read, exceptionally meaningful, definitely educational and hugely constructive in gaining perspective and balance in your outlook on things. You can't come away without being proud of yourself for being so much more damn smarter.

You get to know HIM overtime, too. Personable, not some wonk in an ivory tower. A family man who clearly wants you to be in the know to become better informed, a better, more knowing citizen making better voting decisions and securing your family's future.

His website attracts varied investors, too.
 
Quote from deucy28:



I'm not trying to be flippant, kj. Your input is thoughtful and I think heartfelt.



Ya must have missed my comment, kjones. You were probably composing your "mock" comment while I was posting mine ! LOL !
 
Quote from darkhorse:

It is nowhere near this simple. See my prior post. Or better yet read Beinhocker, then come back.

Fair enough, I thought I'd give it my uneducated go.
 
Quote from kjones5159:

Fair enough, I thought I'd give it my uneducated go.


No worries. I want to encourage you, not discourage you. Your spirit and willingness to engage are assets. We are looking to hire future analysts and traders -- very selectively -- and it is hard to find up and comers with passion, drive and talent. These things are more important than knowledge, as knowledge can always be learned / taught.

Shuttleworth nails it: http://www.markshuttleworth.com/archives/28
 
I've been unintentionally taking it from a sort of outside-in (time wise) approach if this makes any sense, meaning initially I did probably what everyone does and say "How did Buffet get so rich?" (before learning that he all but inherited GEICO) so I learned about value investing. I read Buffetology, The Art of Stock Arbitrage, I then read The Intelligent Investor by Graham, I've read Ron Chernow's (not market related) biographies of John D. Rockefeller and the biography of the house of JP Morgan, I've read Jim Cramer's Real Money which seems more geared towards position and swing trading, next I guess is day trading.

I've been fascinated by business since I was a (younger) kid, granddad owned an HVAC company, dad owned a carpet sales/installation company from 1982-2009, uncle owns a drafting firm, aunt owns a landscaping company.

I grew up in it, I love every second of it, and I want to learn all I can.

That's my story. I'll be getting the Origin of Wealth pretty soon, we can talk about that after I read it.
 
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