JS Global Macro Notes

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Spain pays 2nd highest yield on short-term debt since the birth of the euro:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/24/us-spain-debt-idUSBRE86N0B520120724

Greece now in "great depression:"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/22/us-greece-clinton-depression-idUSBRE86L07L20120722

China PMI 5-month high, but still contracting

http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/500e0f1769bedde547000014-587-605/china-july-flash-pmi.jpg

Apple growth seen pausing as iPhone buyers await model

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-23/apple-growth-seen-pausing-as-iphone-buyers-await-model.html

Of all the above factors, I think the potential for an AAPL miss (post Tues close) poses the greatest downside risk.

Europe is slowly but steadily being more priced in as EURUSD drops. China PMI is a blip, realistically not something worthy of cheering. AAPL, on the other hand, carries meaningful expectations of another blowout earnings report. When expectations get too one-sided, the reward/risk profile becomes asymmetric (skewed toward risk, at least in the short-term). AAPL meeting expectations could conceivably result in a pop-and-fade; whereas a whiff could touch off CMG-style carnage.
 
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Richmond Fed no bueno... ascending channel levels breaking now, in some instruments like Trannies and Russell they are long gone.

It may be not even the mighty AAPL can save this market now.
 
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Radar Logic: "Housing Still a Short"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/0...ampaign=Feed:+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture)

I'm agnostic on housing, but definitely feel skeptical as hell, re, all these Wall Street shops beating the same drum saying single family income rentals represent the greatest opportunity EVER.

The average joe can't afford a mortgage b/c his credit is shit and his job is shaky if he still has one. All these investment guys buying single family homes by the truckload (w/ the plan of renting them out and waiting for property appreciation) surely have to be lifting things a bit.

Not saying housing HASN'T bottomed, but feels too easy to say that it has for certain. Too much potential for this to be a finance-driven hope jag that ends in more tears if the U.S. falls back into recession.

p.s. Wall Street's hottest investment idea - your house:

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/24/wall-street-foreclosures/
 
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Whiff!

Apple reports EPS of $9.32 vs $10.36 Est; Revenues $35B vs $37.18B

Down 6% early reaction... raise a glass to the bears.

Gonna be a good day tomorrow (if you're short)

p.s. Also getting beaten like a red-headed stepchild after hours: TRIP, BWLD, NFLX
 
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