JS Global Macro Notes
- Thread starter darkhorse
- Start date
Yeah - I didn't realize Abelson had been around forever too.
WE MET BARTON BIGGS, DECADES AGO, when we first came to Barron's and Barton was a fledgling securities analyst at E. F. Hutton. Barton still had visions of becoming one of those exalted beings -- an Author -- while we contented ourselves with modest dreams of producing the Great American Novel. Somehow we both got sidetracked, although Barton never really lost his yen or remarkable gift for writing, somehow adding literary luster and wit to subjects -- escription of markets, companies and the like -- traditionally devoid of either.
Barton served on the Barron's Roundtable early on and he was an absolute delight to listen to, with a marvelous if understated -- or maybe especially marvelous because it was understated -- ability to parry and thrust in those unscripted but always engaging exchanges that make the discussions so distinctive and enjoyable.
A natural storyteller, Barton loved stories and invariably when we broke bread over the years, he had somebody in tow who had a Wall Street story to tell just coincidentally about the next great stock, which the guy just happened to own and, out of the goodness of his heart thought Barton ought to own also. In response, Barton would smile that non-committal smile of his and dig into his salad, rarely evincing the skepticism he typically felt.
We found him unfailingly generous in sharing information and opinions, unperturbed in confessing mistakes and shy about proclaiming his successes. He was a great friend and simply a splendid person, a man of true quality. We'll miss him for sure, and Wall Street will be much the poorer for his absence.
EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY down substantially in early morning trading -- 50 bips, 70 bips and 64 bips respectively -- big moves for forex. S&P futures down 9 handles. Strong dollar likely to weigh heavily on risk assets. Gold in a wedge that could crack.
Asia weakness and more Spain troubles, coupled w/ horrible revenue numbers and earnings reports gone bad last week, setting U.S. markets up for downside continuation after Friday's stall at the top of the channel.
We flipped from net long Mon through Thurs (mostly ferts) to 45% net short on Fri morning and will look to ride existing positions.
Notable how many high-end consumer retail plays getting taken out and shot - CMG, WFM, UFPI, ISRG recent victims.
U.S. poverty on track to hit highest since 1960s:
http://news.yahoo.com/us-poverty-track-rise-highest-since-1960s-112946547--finance.html?_esi=1
Which fits w/ reports that 75% of Americans nearing retirement age have less than $30,000 in their retirement accounts:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/opinion/sunday/our-ridiculous-approach-to-retirement.html
This shit is alarming. Will write up more extended thoughts on it, probably for Wednesday.
Here we go again: Berlin, IMF Refuse Fresh Aid to Greece
http://www.spiegel.de/international...rther-financial-aid-reports-say-a-845860.html
Greece has fallen behind with its budget cuts and is asking lenders for more time to meet the conditions of the 130 billion euro aid package. But that would require fresh help of up to 50 billion euros, SPIEGEL has learned. Neither Berlin nor the IMF are prepared to make that money available.
SPAIN / ITALY BAN SHORT SELLING:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-follows-italy-banning-short-selling
This is basically an admission it's time to panic. Since they can't short locally, investors who need to hedge will be shorting the rest of Europe instead.
And anyone who is long, and who understands the tactical implications of what a short selling ban means, will have to seriously consider getting the fuck out while they can, in the small window of liquidity provided by a brief squeeze if such occurs.
