JS Global Macro Notes

darkhorse · Jul 19, 2012

Shale oil bonanza to cost refiners billions

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/19/us-oil-refineries-shale-idUSBRE86I0J220120719

darkhorse · Jul 19, 2012

darkhorse · Jul 19, 2012

Nasty timing: Oil hits 7-week high on Middle East tension (even as economic data comes in fugly today).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/19/us-markets-oil-idUSBRE83H17O20120719

You want a spike through the heart of the bulls? Let shit w/ Iran and Israel get real...

darkhorse · Jul 19, 2012

Spain's 5 and 10 year spreads to Germany hit record wides. No bueno

http://soberlook.com/2012/07/spanish-spreads-hit-record.html

darkhorse · Jul 19, 2012

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised retaliation.

"This is an Iranian terror attack that is spreading throughout the entire world," he said. "Israel will respond with force."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444464304577534922286189802.html#mod=most_viewed_day

darkhorse · Jul 19, 2012

darkhorse · Jul 19, 2012

darkhorse · Jul 20, 2012

The little growth engine that could is deflating, as the bullish hot air hisses out of this tape...

S&P down ~9 handles in early trade, gold, silver, oil all extremely weak.

Let the bear raid begin!

Can there be any doubt now that synchronized global slowdown fears -- and the specter of deflation -- are dominating this tape?

Bridgewater Q212 commentary excerpt sums up well:

Given the lack of private sector credit creation, the world's economies remain highly reliant on government support through monetary and fiscal stimulation. Now that the most recent round of global monetary stimulation has ended, world economic growth has slowed and central bankers are in the process of stimulating again. We estimate that in the past few months, global growth has slowed from about 3.3% to 1.9% and that 80% of the world's economies have slowed, including all of the largest. The breadth of this slowdown creates a dangerous dynamic because, given the inter-connectedness of economies and capital flows, one country's decline tends to reinforce another's, making a self-reinforcing global decline more likely and a reversal more difficult to produce.

darkhorse · Jul 20, 2012

On this day in 1969, three men landed on the moon... and the bears are about to land on this market.

darkhorse · Jul 20, 2012

A few good LIBOR adjustments
via Dan Davies

Deputy Governor, we live in a world that has interest rates. And those interest rates have to be set as the average of a panel of banks...

Who's gonna do it. You? You, Deputy Governor? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for the financial system and you curse the rates traders. You have that luxury.

You have the luxury of not knowing what I know - that distorting the LIBOR, while tragic, probably saved banks. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves banks.

You don't want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that LIBOR panel.

We use words like "bid", "offer", "quote". We use these words as the backbone to a life spent trading something. You use them as a punchline.

I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who sleeps under the blanket of the short term funding I provide - then questions the manner in which I provide it! I'd rather you just said thank you and went on your way.

Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a telephone and submit a quote. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!