JS Global Macro Notes

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Pissed off cabbies shut down central London

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ol...rs-create-gridlock-in-Games-Lane-protest.html
 
Potential "lost generation" of home buyers as 20-somethings shun real estate -- either burned by the housing crisis or no jobs / money / credit. Shiller thinks it's possible suburban home values won't recover in a lifetime.

Seems crazy for most 20-somethings to be home buyers anyway -- too mobility restrictive.

This whole housing recovery feels iffy to me, too driven by hedgies and PE guys with dollar signs in their eyes snapping up single family homes by the neighborhood-load as a rental income play. But what happens when interest rates rise? Top tier doing fine but everybody else sinking into the muck...

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-16/lost-generation-of-homeowners-may-just-be-on-hold
 
Quote from darkhorse:

Potential "lost generation" of home buyers as 20-somethings shun real estate -- either burned by the housing crisis or no jobs / money / credit. Shiller thinks it's possible suburban home values won't recover in a lifetime.

Seems crazy for most 20-somethings to be home buyers anyway -- too mobility restrictive.

This whole housing recovery feels iffy to me, too driven by hedgies and PE guys with dollar signs in their eyes snapping up single family homes by the neighborhood-load as a rental income play. But what happens when interest rates rise? Top tier doing fine but everybody else sinking into the muck...

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-16/lost-generation-of-homeowners-may-just-be-on-hold
More...

yepp thats wht ive been sayin
 
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How long is near-profitless AMZN going to float along on the Bezos premium?

I know the guy's a genius, but at 178x earnings AMZN could be cut in half and still be a nosebleed growth stock.

AMZN is going to take over retail and eat the lunch of all big boxes, yes, the story is saturated... next they are going to get into home delivery and start building warehouses inside city limits so the stuff you order can show up at your door in an hour... fine... but what about the fact that

1) brick and mortar retailers are going to fight like hell if they see mortality staring them in the face, and

2) building logistical centers INSIDE city limits is going to be hella expensive and could possibly be a debacle

3) Put Bezos on a Fortune cover and he is Reed Hastings on a larger scale pre-NFLX implosion circa mid-2011

4) At some point AMZN has to be valued on cash flow / profit potential and not eternal blue sky of all the lunches they are going to eat

5) 178x earnings for a company with a $97B market cap!

Valuations don't matter as long as blue sky true believers are driving the bus, AMZN could go to 350x earnings and they would come up with some shit about the opportunities to sell books on the moon, but nonetheless when this thing breaks technically it could be a hell of a short opp. Maybe soon. Looking for spots where price action confirms.
 
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