JS Global Macro Notes
- Thread starter darkhorse
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Global Macro Notes: Whither Commodities?
The market giveth, and the market taketh away.
In the final weeks of trading for 2010, gold and silver registered powerful "risk on" breakouts. Gold moved definitively to the upside from a short-term triangle pattern, and silver pushed above $30 per ounce.
Soon after, however, both of those moves were swiftly negated. Rather than displaying follow through, the yellow metal dropped sharply, leaving gold bugs to again ponder the possibility of a triple top. Silver, meanwhile, collected two black marks against it -- a break of a long-term trendline and a failure to hold the psychological benchmark of $30 per ounce.
The Mercenary portfolios are now clear of precious metals related positions. Like the old E.F. Hutton commercials: When the market speaks, we listen...
Read full notes here
The market giveth, and the market taketh away.
In the final weeks of trading for 2010, gold and silver registered powerful "risk on" breakouts. Gold moved definitively to the upside from a short-term triangle pattern, and silver pushed above $30 per ounce.
Soon after, however, both of those moves were swiftly negated. Rather than displaying follow through, the yellow metal dropped sharply, leaving gold bugs to again ponder the possibility of a triple top. Silver, meanwhile, collected two black marks against it -- a break of a long-term trendline and a failure to hold the psychological benchmark of $30 per ounce.
The Mercenary portfolios are now clear of precious metals related positions. Like the old E.F. Hutton commercials: When the market speaks, we listen...
Read full notes here
Jack wishing great success in 2011.
If you can, could you share with us your trading results for 2010? Do you run one fund or two? What is the minimum investment?
Thanks.
If you can, could you share with us your trading results for 2010? Do you run one fund or two? What is the minimum investment?
Thanks.
Thanks Optionspro,
My partner and I began our program midway through 2010 and do not have full year results as of yet. When we begin presentation (which hasn't happened yet) we'll be restricted to accredited investors for legal reasons. We have some structures and private arrangements in place, but not yet an official fund.
As for my personal trading (which did span the full year), to be honest 2010 was something of a letdown. I finished up approximately 5%, but it should have been well over 20%.
The first half of the year was excellent, but leverage levels were deliberately cut back due to distractions in other areas.
In the second half, the mortal sin was missing the major shift towards risk assets that occurred in early September. Not being as attentive as I should have been (and could have been), I fought that shift a little too long and hopped on a little too late.
On the bright side, P&L went black very early and stayed black the entire year, suggesting returns could easily have been higher had I not been so conservative. 2011 will (hopefully) be a year of minimal distractions and full throttle.
Weekend comment: Did China just ring a bell?
As the old saying goes, they donââ¬â¢t ring a bell when a market tops.
But sometimes it sure feels like it.
Two quick examples: The first from my days as a wet-behind-the-ears commodity broker in 1998.
I had come into the biz near the tail end of one of the most vicious commodity bear markets of all time. The president of the firm, a diehard grain bull, was convinced everything was about to turn around. Many of our big clients were farmers and he couldn't bring himself to go bearish, repeating the mantra to "never short anything below the cost of production."
A big crop report was coming out, and the whole office was bullish on soybeans. "Beans in the teens!" was the rallying cry, though soybeans were only pushing $6.00 per bushel at the time...
Read full comment here
As the old saying goes, they donââ¬â¢t ring a bell when a market tops.
But sometimes it sure feels like it.
Two quick examples: The first from my days as a wet-behind-the-ears commodity broker in 1998.
I had come into the biz near the tail end of one of the most vicious commodity bear markets of all time. The president of the firm, a diehard grain bull, was convinced everything was about to turn around. Many of our big clients were farmers and he couldn't bring himself to go bearish, repeating the mantra to "never short anything below the cost of production."
A big crop report was coming out, and the whole office was bullish on soybeans. "Beans in the teens!" was the rallying cry, though soybeans were only pushing $6.00 per bushel at the time...
Read full comment here
Global Macro Notes: Reversal of Fortune
The Japanese have a proverb: "the reverse side also has a reverse side." That saying comes to mind reviewing recent action in the $USD.
As we noted last week, the dollar had registered an upside breakout from a multi-month channel, threatening to set the tone for the year with an early climb.
But then the breakout quickly reversed itself, as the situation in Europe -- for the umpteenth time -- morphed in investor's minds from "code red" to "crisis averted, everything's super"...
Read full notes here
The Japanese have a proverb: "the reverse side also has a reverse side." That saying comes to mind reviewing recent action in the $USD.
As we noted last week, the dollar had registered an upside breakout from a multi-month channel, threatening to set the tone for the year with an early climb.
But then the breakout quickly reversed itself, as the situation in Europe -- for the umpteenth time -- morphed in investor's minds from "code red" to "crisis averted, everything's super"...
Read full notes here
Weekend Comment: The Age of Cyberwar is Here
"There's a war out there, old friend. A world war. And it's not about whose got the most bullets. It's about who controls the information. What we see and hear, how we work, what we think... it's all about the information!"
~ Sneakers
One of the most fascinating (and perhaps most overlooked) stories of 2010 was that of Stuxnet, the mysterious computer virus that jammed up Iran's nuclear enrichment program.
This was no ordinary virus, as The Economist describes:
Welcome to 21st century warfare...
Read full comment here
"There's a war out there, old friend. A world war. And it's not about whose got the most bullets. It's about who controls the information. What we see and hear, how we work, what we think... it's all about the information!"
~ Sneakers
One of the most fascinating (and perhaps most overlooked) stories of 2010 was that of Stuxnet, the mysterious computer virus that jammed up Iran's nuclear enrichment program.
This was no ordinary virus, as The Economist describes:
Disrupting key processes... creating false readings... covering its own tracks... this thing is like a trojan horse mayhem capsule filled with nanobot super-hackers.
Welcome to 21st century warfare...
Read full comment here