JPY at end of trend?

Quote from Kassz007:

Coiling indeed. FWIW, I went long USD/JPY last night. Sat through some pain today but have since came back. Will be looking for clues in the Asian session tonight as to where we're headed in the short term.
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Still holding. PA this afternoon will dictate whether I hold this position through the weekend.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

What is your target?
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No set target, per se. Never set a hard target - too predictive. I simply let price action manage my trades for me. The trend is up on the daily, and I would like to ride it as far as it takes me, but as soon as I smell a pullback I will exit. Right now I am taking cues from the hourly as to whether I want to hold this over the weekend or take profits and reevaluate for next week's game plan.
 
Upward momentum seems to have stalled for now. I will take profits on this position in full, and come in fresh for next week. I would not be adverse to putting this position back on next week if we regain momentum, but for now I don't want to get greedy and give back these gains.
 
Monthly divergence looking sooooo cooooool now. A quad! With recent weeks of price consolidation I doubt there will be any major flush. My target remains 90.
 
FEBRUARY 18, 2011, 4:23 P.M. ET
UPDATE: Speculators Turned Short On Yen Last Week - CFTC


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Speculative investors switched their views on the yen last week, swinging toward a bet that the Japanese currency will decline, data released Friday showed. The market held net $2.8 billion worth of bets against the yen, or shorts, as of Tuesday.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110218-712508.html
 
COTs indicate that large traders have flipped dramatically from being Long Yen to being Short Yen. Nice one! Here is what I think is gonna happen. Euro will rise against USD, though USD will rise versus Swissie & Yen to balance USD's rate of descent.
 
USD/JPY will probably want to make a decent breakout below 80.00 and then it will attempt to make a bottom. But the 80.00 level is key support. If it gets broken it can lead to renewed selling, which could signal potential exhaustion of the downtrend.
 
Quote from futuresforex:

USD/JPY will probably want to make a decent breakout below 80.00 and then it will attempt to make a bottom. But the 80.00 level is key support. If it gets broken it can lead to renewed selling, which could signal potential exhaustion of the downtrend.
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Let's assume that both outcomes have equal odds, it's not what you may lose, but what you may gain. Most TA setups are indeed about 50/50 outcome ;)

Here is a weekly Yen COT chart, it's quite self explanatory. Yen tends to decline when Large Traders are net short Yen futures & the opposite applies ie Yen tends to rally when Large Traders are net buyers of Yen futures. Currently we can observe Large Traders have been net long Yen futures since the first half of 2010, now that price failed to take out reaction high on 3 occasions Large Traders have switched to being net short Yen futures, so the opposite expectation would apply. Yen to decline. Obviously that is just an expectation, anything may happen. Another major news shock may send Yen through ATH. There is no way to be certain of that.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3100665>
 

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Quote from blnbr:

U/J monthly and weekly looks lousy. New low seems likely to me :(
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Now U/J touched ALL Time LOW at around 79.80 this afternoon!

I won't be surprised even it continues to fall significantly lower :eek:
 
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