JPY at end of trend?

Weekly basis expectation based on current histogram patterns:

EUR/USD - DOWN
GBP/USD - DOWN
USD/JPY - UP
USD/CHF - UP
USD/CAD - UP
AUD/USD - DOWN
USD/SEK - UP


IMO technically USD Index ought to at least re-test 80, whether it will take out that pivotal area depends on future developments relating to weakness of either USD or Euro. USD's current QE has been priced in, but Euro's QE concerning possible future bailouts of the PIIGS hasn't.

Either way we have a MACD cross in all those pairs weekly basis.

Get your wallets out ;)




Here are next week's main events.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3016766>
 

Attachments

October Hi tagged


Quote from JSSPMK:

Some data:

October 50% (Hi-Lo range) - 82.15

Q3 Lo - 82.87

Year to date 50% (Hi-Lo range) - 82.64

2009 Lo - 84.8

October Hi - 83.98

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3006838>
More...
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Weekly basis expectation based on current histogram patterns:

EUR/USD - DOWN
GBP/USD - DOWN
USD/JPY - UP
USD/CHF - UP
USD/CAD - UP
AUD/USD - DOWN
USD/SEK - UP
More...

NFP next week.
 
"The graph below is a long term index of 12 emerging market currencies priced in Yen terms. Is it bottoming? Well, I would like to think so. I sincerely think that the Yen crosses are unlikely to go any lower and that the next big move will be to the upside. It is interesting to note that the Irish debt crisis, the antics of the trigger happy Koreans, and the "tightening" efforts by the Chinese have not managed to break the Yen crosses down. Maybe this is a sign that the crosses are at rock bottom because usually at the first sign of trouble the Yen crosses get crushed."

<img src=http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/11/27/420980-129085518344282-Daily-Trading_origin.png>


"Given that commodity prices and world equity markets have at least gotten back to where they were trading just prior to the collapse of Lehman, I see little reason as to why the Yen crosses cannot also get back to where they were trading in mid 2008. This suggests that the Yen crosses are at least 30% undervalued."
 
Quote from JSSPMK:


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Quote from JSSPMK:

Weekly basis expectation based on current histogram patterns:

EUR/USD - DOWN
GBP/USD - DOWN
USD/JPY - UP
USD/CHF - UP
USD/CAD - UP
AUD/USD - DOWN
USD/SEK - UP

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NFP next week.
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So, how do you trade the NFP this week? :)
 
Update on Monthly divergences in both MACD & RSI. Without having proper understanding of fundamental issues (currency analysts' opinions - I would say they all interpret them differently) I would have to go with Monthly correction rather than end of trend. Whether correction leads to a full reversal nobody knows at this stage, nobody. Correction's targets are:

T1 - 89+
T2 - 99+

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3023794>
 

Attachments

Quote from JSSPMK:

I don't trade specifically NFP. At the moment I am Long USDJPY & ES, Short EURAUD.
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I also long UJ and ES. But AUD long term chart looks a bit too high to me. And AUDUSD daily chart seems to be lagging behind SPX on up move lately. The daily GBPAUD long may be a better bet I think. But be cautious :)
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Test of this move.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3020461>
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Need to break this darn TL, perhaps NFP will help tomorrow. Easiest way to trash the Dollar would be to have a bad report tomorrow & Bob's your uncle, Dollar downtrend will resume taking index back towards 74 & possibly lower.
 
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