JPMorgan Says Exit Five-Year Treasury Bets, Bank Angst Overdone

[Nighthawk]

Investors should take profit on five-year Treasuries after the notes surged this week amid regional banking concern and data signaling the potential for a soft payrolls report on Friday, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts.

The bank recently recommended buying five-year Treasuries after yields jumped in January to a one-month high. With JPMorgan forecasting an upside surprise for January payrolls data on Friday, that makes it a good time for investors to sell the bonds now, analysts including Jay Barry, the firm’s co-head of US rates strategy, wrote in a report Thursday.

“Combined with what we think is an overreaction to the regional bank developments as well as the risks around tomorrow’s employment report, these factors present upside risks to yields,” they wrote.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-five-year-treasury-bets-bank-angst-overdone

What did these ANAL-ysts know what we didn´t before release of NFP?

 

[Primal Trader]

Thanks for that post, which I had not seen anywhere else. That was indeed an unusually "prescient" call on their part! Maybe they are psychic! Nothing like connections ...

I wish I had seen it yesterday, the 5 year treasury futures are becoming a personal favorite of mine, but I have had my attention elsewhere recently. I like the fact that the lower options tick size is the same as the futures, $7.8125, and quite tight spreads. It often has the second highest volume after the ZN. I will be watching it more closely once again.

 

[trend2009]

Thanks for that post, which I had not seen anywhere else. That was indeed an unusually "prescient" call on their part! Maybe they are psychic! Nothing like connections ...

I wish I had seen it yesterday, the 5 year treasury futures are becoming a personal favorite of mine, but I have had my attention elsewhere recently. I like the fact that the lower options tick size is the same as the futures, $7.8125, and quite tight spreads. It often has the second highest volume after the ZN. I will be watching it more closely once again.

what is the symbol for 5 year treasury future?

“the fact that the lower options tick size is the same as the futures, $7.8125, and quite tight spreads.” Which option symbol are you talking about?

 

[Primal Trader]

On most platforms it is ZF. With Tastytrade, I just click on the bid or ask and the options chain pops up, same symbol. Trading options on futures can supply amazing capital efficiency. BTW, both ZT which is the 2 year note, and ZF, have about the lowest trade costs of all outright full-sized futures.