JPMorgan predicts $380 oil on worst-case Russian output cuts

[vanzandt]

It is impossible for WTI to reach that price.

Well there ya go folks.
It's pretty much a given now.
$390 here we come.

 

[maxinger]

and down it goes from 111 to 106.

 

[maxinger]

JPMorgan predicts $380 oil on worst-case Russian output cuts

Global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 a barrel if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude output cuts, JPMorgan Chase analysts warned.

The Group of Seven leading industrial nations are working out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russian oil in an attempt to tighten the screws on President Vladimir Putin amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

But Moscow can afford to reduce daily crude production by 5 million barrels without excessively damaging the Russian economy, JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.

For much of the rest of the world, however, the results could be disastrous.

A 3 million barrel cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London crude prices that are now around $111 to $190, while the worst-case scenario of 5 million could mean “stratospheric” $380 crude, the analysts wrote.

“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the analysts wrote.

“It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”

this is quite a poorly written article.

Russia can simply supply oil to China & India.

China & India can simply reduce their supply from say Middle East.
etc etc etc

It is a matter of changing the suppliers.

 

[murray t turtle]

Inflation adjusted the price in 2008 was $200 in todays dollars.
..... Prices can spike to insane levels.
So prices could spike to over $300 but I doubt will stay up there for long.

%%
Bank forecasts[ not ''predictions''] , even a whole herd of banks tend not to be right. WSJ @ least\ may write an article with a herd of banks, not just one or 2.
REMEBER how LONG the bulls had it all figured out \ arrogantly , with supply+ demand . NO way oil could downtrend they boasted.
OOPs, then frackin proved them wrong, wrong wrong.
And after that down move look like it was over oil\ went negative\LOL

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

Wall Street's propaganda machine is in full swing to flame the "peak oil" speculation again (2008 and 2013 all over again). I'm sure some "smart" analyst from Goldman Sach would get on CNBC and blow his case why oil should be traded at $360/barrel
-Enron manipulated the price of electricity in the West Coast (made it to jump 300%)
-Amaranth Hedge Fund artificially inflated the natural gas price by 75%
how have wall street firms afforded to pay lot of bonuses to their traders years after years? the money must come from somewhere. I think regulation should be put in place to limit speculation on fear in the energy market + speculation in the currency markets too (some speculation was the deliberate attempt to destabilize an economy, then reaped the benefit on someone else suffering).

 

[murray t turtle]

Wall Street's propaganda machine is in full swing to flame the "peak oil" speculation again (2008 and 2013 all over again). I'm sure some "smart" analyst from Goldman Sach would get on CNBC and blow his case why oil should be traded at $360/barrel
-Enron manipulated the price of electricity in the West Coast (made it to jump 300%)
-Amaranth Hedge Fund artificially inflated the natural gas price by 75%
how have wall street firms afforded to pay lot of bonuses to their traders years after years? the money must come from somewhere. I think regulation should be put in place to limit speculation on fear in the energy market + speculation in the currency markets too (some speculation was the deliberate attempt to destabilize an economy, then reaped the benefit on someone else suffering).

%%
Interesting, this article was updated in 2022; treehugger.com Artic Oil Drilling. They noted several oil [Shell, COP...]companies that left the Artic, with low oil prices.
Strangely, i picked up a cool looking an older MAGAzine today , named ''Polar Bears on The Edge'' Even though they are pushing climate propaganda, cool title

 

[kashirin]

JPMorgan analysts are smoking crack laced with crude to even think that. It is impossible for WTI to reach that price.

US cannot function without money printing. If you somehow think inflation will ever get back to 2% and stay there you are smoking crack.

Governments around the world will compete for energy and by meaning compete they will print whatever money needed to buy som more oil.

 

[NoahA]

US cannot function without money printing. If you somehow think inflation will ever get back to 2% and stay there you are smoking crack.

Governments around the world will compete for energy and by meaning compete they will print whatever money needed to buy som more oil.

If the payment for the energy is coming from dollars that are just printed, will the producers not expect a better form of payment? Perhaps the prices of energy keep rising because they are already pricing in the "printer" surcharge.

 

[murray t turtle]

..... Perhaps the prices of energy keep rising because they are already pricing in the "printer" surcharge.

%%
ANYthing is possible;
but oil sold much cheaper before the specs buyers piled in. Even after a good downtrend XOM ceo said ''$20 unwanted spec premium in oil'' \actually it could easy be much more than that. Election years worry about an overinflated oil price + they also said on Bloomberg business most likely lower gas prices \ but may take 2 week .Good points thru Bloombeg Business.
Good thing for the bears; JPM price target of $360\LOL.....................................................
OF all the goofs [c] citigroup has made;
due to recession fears, C was noted on Bloomberg Business today suggesting $50 is a better target.Feel free to buy your stuff in metals in silver or gold..............................

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

whatever, I'm all for oil drilling & exploration, bring on the tar sands. it's a way for generating tax revenues and jobs. if I were president Biden, I'd go easy on the environment policies, and just raise taxes on the oil revenues, then use the money to invest in the areas of green energy. nuclear, hydrogen, science in fusion energy.