Joyg

[arc316]

I wanted to know everyone’s opinion playing joyg off their earnings. I was thinking a June 55 straddle.

 

[GATrader]

B Jun 50 x 1
S Jun 55 X 2
S Jun 60 x 2
B 4 Jul 65 x 4

"hell freezes over" exposure -$92 Joyg to 92 + 564
2 sgima exposure -92 max peaking at 231 bet 52 to 62
That is dropping the vols across the board to 55IV

 

[segv]

Quote from arc316:

I wanted to know everyone’s opinion playing joyg off their earnings. I was thinking a June 55 straddle.

Forecast average SV with 23 days to expiration is at 45.3% and 44.9% for my two primary models, respectively. Current JOYG IV at 85.8% for a ~40% premium to SV forecast. When you said "June 55 straddle", I am assuming you mean shorting a June 55 straddle, right?

-segv

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from segv:

Forecast average SV with 23 days to expiration is at 45.3% and 44.9% for my two primary models, respectively. Current JOYG IV at 85.8% for a ~40% premium to SV forecast. When you said "June 55 straddle", I am assuming you mean shorting a June 55 straddle, right?

-segv

I closed my long JOYG straddle yesterday with a nice profit , I cannot belive its up another 1$ !!!

 

[segv]

Quote from IV_Trader:

I closed my long JOYG straddle yesterday with a nice profit , I cannot belive its up another 1$ !!!

Congratulations on a nice ramp in IV. When did you buy it? There was a nice discount to forecast in March and April at points, would have been a very nice long gamma ride. They announce tomorrow? Might not be a bad short towards the close.

-segv

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from segv:

Congratulations on a nice ramp in IV. When did you buy it? There was a nice discount to forecast in March and April at points, would have been a very nice long gamma ride. They announce tomorrow? Might not be a bad short towards the close.

-segv

a week or so ago , paid low 50th vols. My pre report expected vols were no higher than 60 , but with late VIX action I raised it a bit. Still totally shocked to see almost 90 now ( although JOYG moved 15% in the last 2 qtrs , but still...)

 

[segv]

Quote from IV_Trader:

a week or so ago , paid low 50th vols. My pre report expected vols were no higher than 60 , but with late VIX action I raised it a bit. Still totally shocked to see almost 90 now ( although JOYG moved 15% in the last 2 qtrs , but still...)

So uh, why aren't you short?

-segv

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from segv:

So uh, why aren't you short?

-segv

good question ! I do reverse position some times , but staying away this time . Good luck If you going short ; its a good r/r and you covered for first +/- 18 % of the move

 

[segv]

Quote from IV_Trader:

good question ! I do reverse position some times , but staying away this time . Good luck If you going short ; its a good r/r and you covered for first +/- 18 % of the move

I do not want the -gammas, but I might sick the bot on the short calendar.

-segv

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from segv:

I do not want the -gammas, but I might sick the bot on the short calendar.

-segv

I checked it before : both front and back month vols needed to collapse to high 30th to make it vega neutral