Journal XburbX - My Plan

XB


Hope you’ll permit me a little leeway to stretch the ole brain

I have a few thoughts – once again; they’re separate and apart – but also connected




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Today, I was done relatively early

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I’ve often touted – we must remain opinion-less…. and; Trade what we see

Yet; I’ve also said

A set up is a condition where I think price will do one thing over another

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Aside; I wonder why someone hasn’t taken issue with me about the above two statement being counter

Isn’t thinking something will do one thing over another – having an opinion – I think so….

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Anyway
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Here is an unbiased recount of what price did today in the one I’m trading

Gapped open
Made a mad dash to my target – where I exited
Pulled back a little
Exceed my target by a nickel or two
Pulled back to my target
Ranges there a bit
Proceed to sell off and retract past where it opened
It is currently sitting (closed) at the lower channel line on my higher TF

Essentially the same condition as yesterday evening – heading into today
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Based on yesterday’s PA / close – I thought going into today – price would shoot off long

Then range, for most of the day, in the upper part of the move

So I had a bias – based on yesterday’s PA – but a bias nonetheless


At the open; Price confirmed, even reinforced – my bias – by doing exactly what I thought – at least initially

When it hit my target – I exited

And because I was aware of by bias – took the rest of the day off

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Think what could have happen – if I was not able to overcome my bias – and as price sold off – I bought every dip – thinking price would return to the high

How many losers – how much lost

On the other hand I could say, oh no – I would have recognized the sell off and shorted it

Truthfully I can’t say that – because I don’t know for sure

What I do know is I had a bias this morning…, price confirmed my bias – deeper setting it in – then price did what it did – sold off

Yes I missed doubling my money

But I also missed all that risk

And I missed the emotional and psychological capital – losing costs

For that matter – I could have easily lost more than I won – by simply holding my bias – and waiting on price to once again confirm it – which never happened today

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My point(s)

- When the mkt gives you exactly what you’re expecting – take it and don’t look back


- The mkt (price) sends off signals which in turn gives us a bias – when we act upon those signals – and price then moves in our direction.., that bias has been confirmed… even reinforced


- Then there are other times, price will reverse and punish us – for the very bias it just provided and reinforced within us…. And will punish us especially harshly if we hold onto that bias


- Recognize this…, recognize when its happening – come up with a plan to counter it



- Every trade we enter, exposes us to risk, exposes us to potentially losing – when you’ve made your daily pay roll – take the rest of the day off and enjoy life – the money you save is yours to keep

- Some would say I missed doubling my money today – by getting out early…

Well…, as I only trade one stock repeatedly… I miss every other stock, future, commodity, bond, forex move – every day – big friggin deal...

- Tomorrow I will begin the day with – no stress – no regrets – no bias – and profitable from today…

- Protect your emotional/ psychological capital – as you would your trading capital - both are precious

- Acknowledge - price does give us a bias... and at times punish us if we don't relinquish that bias quickly


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Not sure this makes as much sense written out…, as it does in my head…

If it helps give you pause to think – mission accomplished

If on the other hand – it is of no value – my apologies for wasting your time

RN
 
Feel free to stretch the ol brain. Not an issue at all.

This is crystal clear and in my own way it is exactly what I think when entering a trade in general. We see price differently but it is the same kind of thought process. I see something happening because of how price is forming and then place my "bet" based on it not saying otherwise yet. If I am wrong, so be it. If I am right, I try to manage the trade as best I can according to price. The way I capture price is almost always based on where price is and then seeing if it will act within a channel the way I expect. If it doesnt, I don't care or hold a trade ever. It has never been an issue with me in taking stops. I understand that well.

I am not sure how you are able to take a bet at price moving hard and then slowing. Whatever price told you going into the day, I am not sure what you are looking at. I would love to study something that would indicate the possibility of a day that will move instead of sit around or when it should move. Are you primarily looking at the prior days activity to gauge this sentiment on the intraday movement? I am aware of times of day when price moves, but not to the level you trade at all.

Btw - The trophy didnt come home with me tonight, but next time I get it, I will post a picture of it and all its glory.
 
XB,

Because

I have filtered out all the extraneous crap, and focused solely on the players and their actions

I understand who the players are, and their motivations

I can read their actions – via price and volume – most of the time

May sound hard, it is exactly the opposite


Helps reduce the learning curve if you trade the same thing over and over

But once learnt - applies to any stock (at least all that I have traded)

eta - it also helps to have context price acknowledges - then leverage the crap out of it - till it stops working (again simply another form of reading the players)


RN
 
RN,

Excellent point. It's damn hard not to look for a pullback (on a day like yesterday), not to look for anything.

To illustrate to myself how little the lines matter compared to a TM I combined all TF trend lines into one ugly chart.

I can see why a line is more than just a line, it's many. And I can also see why it (they) offers more S/R than it appears.

I think it may help, when I do my homework, to identify "areas of interest" as opposed to getting caught up with one specific one here or there.
 

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