When you try to pick tops or bottoms, you'll likely be using the day's high or low as your stop, you and every other trader, which is probably responsible for more false breakouts/breakdowns than anything else. Real breakouts/breakdowns usually occur out of consolidation in the same direction as the trend started. False breakouts/breakdowns occur when everyone's stops are hit just above or below major S/R. Once the stops wash these folks out, you get the real reversal you've been looking for. This is why so many traders experience getting stopped out at the top or bottom only to see the trade move in their direction. So if you're inclined to try to pick a top or bottom at overbought/oversold, make sure it's been running hard to lows/highs and give it some room with a smaller position and wider stop.
The better, safer, and most successful way to pick reversals is to go long on the higher low, short on the lower high. You can either place your stop above/below the pivot bar, or above/below the day's high or low.
this is very good advice for u QT. i also recommend the following thread.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=148752&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
PLUS
first u have to get down the basics cause i think your problem lies here and not in TA.
1.
decide how much u want to make every month lets say 5k for example.
the next thing to do is visualize this.
every morning after u get up and nightly before u go to sleep. this will take less than 1 minute. this is how u do it:
THEORY:
close your eyes and imagine squeezing a lemon (or anything mouth watering pickles etc. over your tongue; u should feel your mouth watering just a little.
your juices are flowing from a fake lemon. this is very important because u have just deceived yourself and seen your body prepare to deal with the lemon. this is the key. getting a response from your mind/body to something imaginary.
PRACTICE:
now to visualize. u double your 5k/month to 10k so it becomes a little mouth watering. close your eyes and say in your mind 'i make 10k/month'
and then try to feel and notice some response from your body when u visualize this. (like mouthwatering was a response to a lemon).
imagine how will be your posture/demeanor/attitude if u were making 10k/month. how would u be feeling if it were true. feel this more and more and more. u may notice small changes in your body/mind; like u becoming more a little bit more attentive/taller/confident/easygoing/alert/better mood. these things u will feel in very small proportions. as long as u feel a little bit of any of these u have successfully deceived yourself again.
u will feel a little bit better after deceiving yourself. the more u deceive yourself this way the better u will feel and better u feel the better u will be in whatever u do including trading. u have just created and setup some software
according to which your body/mind will respond. (u decide what results u want from yourself then program them by visualizing.)
Conclusion:
the software u are running right now in your mind/body is not working for u. (THIS MEANS YOU ARE BEING TRUE TO YOURSELF; TRYING AS HARD AS U POSSIBLY CAN; HONESTLY PUTTING IN THE TIME AND ITS NOT WORKING; SO DECEPTION IS THE SOLUTION HERE) this presently running software has to be changed as described above.
this takes about 1 min in the morning when u wake and 1 min at night before dozing off. u can do it more than that too like during the day; anytime when u got a minute. its just a reminder that new software is ON.
Final thought:
after a few days of doing this lets about after a week add this feature. begin to feel that the software is so constantly on that the machine is running hot. running hot all the time so hot that its going to vaporize any moment. when u begin to see vapors u will notice that know all barriers have been broken. u have transcended your old self. u may even begin to feel as if u are possessed. lol. but many things would have changed by then.
