Jonnysharp's ES briefing

J

jonnysharp

I am starting this briefing section to help me and other ES participants have a clearer picture of whats going on and the day ahead. Im not selling anything, so please no bashing. Other ES participants feel free to add your comments. Im a daytrader and don't hold positions overnight. Hopefully it can be of good to everyone.


Comments re previous day:

Oil spiked above $70 causing some selling pressure, but late afternoon buying on good volume as oil fell back down. action was mostly within the day's before range.


New events for today:


8:30AMEST Gross Domestic Product consensus 3.5%
10:00AMEST NAPM - Chicago consensus 61.0
10:30AMEST EIA Petroleum status report


Earnings announcements today:


Freddie Mac(FRE)
Tiffany & Co(TIF)


Key levels for today:

Top of downward channel around 1212.
S/R line around 1210
baseline support around 1202
multi-day resistance at 1214
PDH: 1210.5
PDL: 1201.5
PDC: 1210


Trend:


Short term: DOWN
Medium term: UP


Volatility:

VIX yesterday: 13.65
short term cycle: range expansion still un-decisive though


Pre-market comments:

I think investors have some work to do today. combing over katrina, and who's feeling it the worst and how bad. GDP report, how are we growing? and where? too slow -> not enough profit potential or too fast -> inflation/rates. up side is that gov. is helping oil supply. pre-market volume is good and there is some early movements as we speak testing 1212 level, oil is holding under $70. i have no bias here today, just waiting on those news announcements and there implications, otherwise we could be in for some more range bound action.



j.
 
Quote from gatorplease:

Will you be posting trades?
More...


i want this journal to be more of a hang out spot for ES players. i dont want to show boat my trades, i think that would put pressure on me. I want this journal to be a place to discuss yesterdays action and the day ahead action, not specific methods for pulling money out of the market.
 
Wednesday, 31st August 8.15AMEST

comments re previous day:


well apparently the fed wont be so hawkish because of oil and katrina, bonds warmed up to that, oil sold of with the help of gov. some good upside levels were broken, eom window dressing, short term trend might have changed.


News today:


Jobless claims 8.30am
personal income 8.30am
construction spending 10am
ISM Mfg Index 10am


Earnings announcements today:


JDS Uniphase Corporation(JDSU)
Ciena Corporation(CIEN)
H&R Block, Inc.(HRB)


Key levels for today:


1226
1223
1214


Trend:


short term: possible downside reversal
medium term: up


Volatility:


short term cycle: expansion -> contraction expected


Pre-market comments:

pre-market volume is little weaker and in a narrow range. lots of news today could cause some range bound action. asian indices higher. oil hovering around $69 a barrell. also with oil, whats the bigger effect, the govt help or katrina.



j.
 
The Friday before Labor day is historically bullish.

But I think the markets could go down.

The dollar has gone down very hard the past couple days. Obviously the world banks think Katrina has hurt Americas economy.
 
Quote from reno4nook:

The Friday before Labor day is historically bullish.

But I think the markets could go down.

The dollar has gone down very hard the past couple days. Obviously the world banks think Katrina has hurt Americas economy.
More...


you would think so, given that the market is acting like nothing is wrong, when the direct and in-direct effects of katrina are gonna be deep and long lasting. but the market is a funny beast, todays action(thursday) was a large triangle, could be a big move friday.
 
Friday 2nd september

comments re previous day:


pause after up move on lighter volume. price action formed triangle. no heavy selling pressure. oil remained tame. continued buying in oil stocks.



News today:


Employment situation 8:30am.


Earnings announcements today:


No significant earnings for today.


Key levels:


1230
1225
1220
1215
1210


Volatility:


contracted - > could see directional expansion today.


Trend:

short term up
medium term up


Pre-market comments:


employment news just came out, bonds seeing selling pressure a little buying interest in stocks, oil down to 68.60. volume was weak now building nicely, moderate range. market is looking to the upside, but a afternoon reversal wouldnt surprise me.




j.
 
I'm predicting an up day on Tuesday.

Oil prices are heading lower.
Bonds and the Dollar have stablized.

S&P back above 50 ema

And on the day after Labor Day the Dow is up 8 of last 10
 
Quote from reno4nook:

I'm predicting an up day on Tuesday.

Oil prices are heading lower.
Bonds and the Dollar have stablized.

S&P back above 50 ema

And on the day after Labor Day the Dow is up 8 of last 10
More...


i agree. some have positioned themselves that way too, evident in the size that was hitting the offer in the last minutes of the session. evident buying on a hammer formation. still theres 3 days of news, i think investors will have a better idea of katrina come monday, and we could see some expanded direction.
 

Attachments

lmao we were up 1% last week when in reality we should have been down 10% on this disaster. just as last week suprised people thgis week will too as we head down. earnings will be terrible in the dec qtr and in 2006 as nobody expects that
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top