Joining the CME gang
- Thread starter hilmy83
- Start date
I believe you're trading in that overnight trading session or early morning trading session before regular stock market hours.
If so, volatility has been been mean reverting a lot lately...big reversion last night / early this morning. Usually results in trade problems. In fact, if that mean reversion continues into the regular trading hours...I typically drop down to small size only to reduce the increasing risk and minimizes the chance of a big hit when a losing trading day shows up.
Any more deep mean reversion in the volatility like that, I'll go on an extended vacation to avoid trading in crap.
Things will heat up soon again as the U.S. Presidential elections gets nearer especially after Biden selects his running mate.
wrbtrader
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Question for you Futures traders. I'm in the UK. Looking at trying micro's to transition from spread betting to Futures.
I have looked at TradeStation linked to trader view charts and AMP linked to trader view charts. For a person new to Futures looking for simple buy/sell platform and reasonable cost, which of the two brokers would you go for?
( I looked at IB -who have an office in the UK - but they seem to cater for the big guys with a lot of experience - not for small Micro Futures traders like me)
Thanks in advance.
I have looked at TradeStation linked to trader view charts and AMP linked to trader view charts. For a person new to Futures looking for simple buy/sell platform and reasonable cost, which of the two brokers would you go for?
( I looked at IB -who have an office in the UK - but they seem to cater for the big guys with a lot of experience - not for small Micro Futures traders like me)
Thanks in advance.
They have demo programs...tried them. Also, you can call their customer service and intentionally ask questions to see how they respond to you and such.
If you can, open an account with them at the same time...trade the minimum 1 contract to determine which is overall best for you. Yet, its always smart to have a primary broker and a backup broker just in case the primary broker goes down for a few hours,
Seriously, this is one of those questions that's easily answered by you because answers by someone else may not be suitable because they have different needs from a broker in comparison to your needs.
wrbtrader
Can you tell us how much he lost today within the nearest 1,000. Also, can you tell us what position size he was using ?
wrbtrader
Man, I don't even know what account size he had in the morning)
August = FUBAR
this month the market has fucked me in the ass few times. Normally it's just once a month lol
To be honest, i pretty much just followed my strategy. But I only account for 1 max loss per month that i can bounce from which what i have seen in the past, but this month, the volatility started to shrink big time in the ATH that i got knocked few times. It got so bad, that i had to turn to my dividend portfolio for margin infusion (found out that fidelity has T+3 settlement).
So gonna put the dividend portfolio on the backburner for now. i want to hit the 100k mark again and then reduce the risk a bit before i come back to this.
Trading this aggressive is like stress testing my system to see how it performs in different volatility conditions.it's good to know what max risk i can take to account for the conssecutive losses without completely being blown to shit. So it's all good information that I keep in my charts folder. The strategy is decent, if at a very low risk, it can easily handle a few drawdown sequences.
for the month , expecting down about -50k. That is if the rest of the month is not another shit show.
this month the market has fucked me in the ass few times. Normally it's just once a month lol
To be honest, i pretty much just followed my strategy. But I only account for 1 max loss per month that i can bounce from which what i have seen in the past, but this month, the volatility started to shrink big time in the ATH that i got knocked few times. It got so bad, that i had to turn to my dividend portfolio for margin infusion (found out that fidelity has T+3 settlement).
So gonna put the dividend portfolio on the backburner for now. i want to hit the 100k mark again and then reduce the risk a bit before i come back to this.
Trading this aggressive is like stress testing my system to see how it performs in different volatility conditions.it's good to know what max risk i can take to account for the conssecutive losses without completely being blown to shit. So it's all good information that I keep in my charts folder. The strategy is decent, if at a very low risk, it can easily handle a few drawdown sequences.
for the month , expecting down about -50k. That is if the rest of the month is not another shit show.
Volatility in the Emini Futures started mean reverting late March. Yet it was still high (way above its mean) going into June.
It then did its infamous little pop to the upside in which a lot of traders saw unreasonable gains in their trading. That then sets the stage for bad trading conditions in August as the volatility pops back down to continue mean reverting...resulting in very bad trading conditions (unusual losses / stress) so far here in August for those that are using a trade strategy sensitive to changes in volatility.
Simply, August is a month for less aggressive trading, less trades, less position size because the risk conditions are way too high. So much that the first week of August I started calling this month the "Blow Up Month" for those having problems with the mean reversion in the volatility.
Essentially, in hindsight, August was a month to go on vacation...stay away from the markets unless you have a good system for navigating the mean reverting volatility.
I'm expecting one more little pop in the volatility to trick many into maintaining that high risk trading style before the U.S. presidential elections...worst than the current August because its currently sitting near the top of a prior dangerous range of volatility from last year between May to this year of early February.
- If it drops below the old resistance area of the volatility and back into that prior dangerous area of volatility...I'm getting out my hiking / camping equipment and will spend more time away from the markets until the dust settles.
In my opinion, mean reversion in volatility causes the most blowups for traders because most don't recognize when its occurring until its too late.
hilmy83, your use of a dividend portfolio to offset any day trading damage is a great plan. I myself prefer real estate and art collections to minimize risk of ruin.
wrbtrader
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This is mistake. The reality has already gone beyond the risk profile you are presenting. Market risk is always broader than our understanding of it. If you put the risk 3x from your ideas, then it MAYBE, you will remain intact. And now you are simply burning resources. Now you are throwing firewood into the furnace of a ship with a hole.