Joining the CME gang

[hilmy83]

yea still alive. made another deposit and started trading the asian session only and trying to make monthly withdrawals along the way. staying away from US session like the damn ebola plague. it took a hard hit for me to realize that the US session has no edge for me.

i thought about starting the journal back up with just asian session trading, but i just think it's non value added for me to do that. what's the point of pnl journal anyway? it's not like i'm clueless about trading. everything going forward is about execution and discipline and I can be disciplined off the radar; plus i don't think i want to pursue cme membership; which render this journal pretty much pointless

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I'm also not going to do anymore youtube. maybe will delete that channel. it's just a pointless silent livestreams

i'll probably do one last post for 2020 summary. After that, want to move on with forum posting (will still lurk around for new developments in the trading world, events. etc.).

Looks like it'll be another halt day, possibly during the euro session: but here's the update

i've been doing pretty consistently since i ditched trading in the US session. I did hit a snag sometime in Feb. Lost 50% of capital. All my trades up to that point had a worst case scenario stop loss put in (no reduction under any condition).

I decided to check to see if i can screen my trades a little better, so I found a filter that would've prevented me from taking that trade in the first place. and after doing some backtests, it turns out to be a pretty decent filter.

I also adjusted the risk profile a little bit after that incident to minimize that black swan event just in case (the filter should help minimize it further).

So i added 6k into my account after that day cause i didn't feel like waiting for it to grow from that low point (feel like the feds injecting liquidity into my account). i plan to withdraw it after next week and hope to God i don't get into cycle of deposit/withdrawal...the consistency of the method allowed me to still net + for the month.

so here are the screenshots. I think i'll take a break from posting now. I think these movements are going to be somewhat common, so I don't want to get into habit of posting too much (finding out i'm doing better behind the scenes). Next update, maybe mid year.. Keep grinding!

 

[hilmy83]

Learned something new today..

i can't put a TP beyond the halt price. I was like..why the fuck is it not taking my limit TP. !?!?!

unprecendented that halt is reached this quick. Good thing they let me liquidate at that level..man i would be pissed if it reverses and i figure it out later. duly fucking noted cme...

 

[chasinfla]

23 pages of this? wha?

did i miss the post where you say WHY you want to join an exchange -- esp if yer knocking it out of the park so much with out membership?

 

[comagnum]

Yea - fast halt - and wicked gap down - big holes in liquidity.

 

[hilmy83]

It's been a crazy week. Did pretty good with trading, but this post is about a different type of trading; long term equity investment.

I normally don't invest much in equity except for the traditional 401k which is pretty much 50% gone (started working in 2007).

So after seeing this unprecedented crash, I thought this is a great time to look into longer term independent investment. 2008 was my personal experience with a market crash; but back then I didn't have much money to invest. But now, I'M RICH BITCH...j/k

So I formed my investment method right off the bat. Defensive dividend yield theory method (DYT). Essentially using the dividend yield theory to value defensive stocks (dividend paying only). What are defensive stocks and why just defensive stocks?

Defensive stocks are your stocks that deal with the essentials; food and shelter for the most part. I also looked into utilities and other sector which I'll explain below why I put in money in those stocks.

I don't want to copy and paste shit, so if you want to learn about dividend yield theory I suggest you read


https://www.simplysafedividends.com/intelligent-income/posts/1104-dividend-yield-theory-explained

plus I also invest in things I know or use like what Peter Lynch talks about in his book which I read early on


I also use Morningstar to get some additional insights and alternate fair valuation. I liked their approach in evaluating stocks and it's easy to understand. So I'd take the DYT fair value and Morningstar fair value and just average it to get the stock's fair value. Then I'd decide at what discount I want to buy below that price to provide that margin of safety.

So what are the sectors I looked into?

Consumer staple (food/grocery/pharmacy): people will need to eat and get medicine regardless if they lose their jobs or there's a lockdown.

WBA-walgreens. I buy candy and water from there. Enough said haha
TSN foods- meat! i'm more of a chicken person
UVV-tobacco. I don't smoke, but i do know people will continue to smoke till the end of times
SYY-food distribution. Mostly to restaurants which is why i think it's getting beat a lot.
INGR-food chemicals

REITs (more specifically residential). I'm not really interested in any other kinds like office, medical, industrial reits etc.

CPT, AVB, ESS, FRT, INVH, and of course CUBE

These companies deal with apartment communities/rental homes mostly. and some are in the retail side. But why CUBE? with people losing their jobs and home soon, where they gonna store their crap? that's right..in those storage garages #thinkoutsidethebox


Utilities -electric/gas mostly. I mean you're not going to sit at home in the dark are you?

EXC,D,BIP,OGE

Payment method- you gotta pay for the shit you need right? nobody's carrrying around gold and silver coins ok...Plus cash is getting a bad rep with people not washing their hands

MA, V - I use both..nothing else to say here

I didn't look at other sectors cause to be honest with you, I don't want to have so many stocks in the portfolio. This is the most basic I can get it down to..

So I plan to invest more in the summer/fall. I think the market will fall more, but that means the discount is even more attractive for higher capital gains and of course the yield.

 

[hilmy83]

so ends one of the most volatile, gut wrenching trading month in history!. if you traded the whole month and didn't blow up, consider yourself one of the best!

pat yourself on the back, stroke one off for that + pnl, or just lay back and take a hit...or just fucking get outside you sun deprived lazy fucks! hehe

 

[hilmy83]

So I wanted to post some updates regarding my dividend stock portfolio. As i read more information about this method , my strategy also evolves a little bit.

The portfolio is going to be a combination of "forever holds", swing holds, and direct consumer holds .

Forever holds are stocks in good companies that pay good dividends (min 3% annual). I would just buy at undervalue and hold until there is evidence of future bankruptcy or fraud. My top criteria is to hold stocks that have at least 3% 5yr historical average yields.

Swing holds are stocks of good companies that pay good yields >3% now (but have <3% 5yr yield) that are undervalued. I would hold these until it gets to fair value and sell.

Direct consumer holds are 1-5 stocks that I think are essential to my day to day personal life. Mostly stores like walmart/target, grocers, card processing like visa, utilities, internet/communications etc. Even if they pay lower than my 3% 5 yr average minimum yield, I hold them cause I use them.

I think in the end, I'd probably would own about 40-50 stocks. So I'm definitely in the market for more, but I'll wait till maybe summer to add more. The ultimate goal is to create an income portfolio where I can living income just off dividends. Yes, I know, it'll take a couple million dollar portfolio to do this.

How do I fund this goal? through my 9-5 job discretionary income and some futures trading profit. Hopefully I can get the deposit consistent throughout the year.

This is my portfolio now

The income and breakdown

I guess i'm in REITs and utilities mostly..

I did spun off some stocks I held earlier this year. Some of those were sold because of bad fundamentals in current market and others are due to being replaced by other opportunities. (and some are from stupid execution mistakes).

 

[hilmy83]

just created a simple site where i can load my stuff online and organize it easier
www.theportfolioincome.com

quick update :

stock portfolio.

I rebalanced my portfolio again last month. I basically got out of stocks with < 3% yield. I figured, i'm not in this for the capital gains, but for the cash flow. Anything less than 3% is not worth my time, even if the stocks are top notch

futures trading.

had a crappy month last month. the super high margin requirement, just made me abandon my strategy for few instances. Thank god AMP restored the margins back in the overnight so i can resume my proper strategy.

So trading is definitely not consistent, this is why i'm very focused on trying to grow my dividend portfolio side. I think it's gonna be a good compliment to my erratic trading income.

till next time

 

[wrbtrader]

just created a simple site where i can load my stuff online and organize it easier
www.theportfolioincome.com

quick update :

stock portfolio.

I rebalanced my portfolio again last month. I basically got out of stocks with < 3% yield. I figured, i'm not in this for the capital gains, but for the cash flow. Anything less than 3% is not worth my time, even if the stocks are top notch

futures trading.

had a crappy month last month. the super high margin requirement, just made me abandon my strategy for few instances. Thank god AMP restored the margins back in the overnight so i can resume my proper strategy.

So trading is definitely not consistent, this is why i'm very focused on trying to grow my dividend portfolio side. I think it's gonna be a good compliment to my erratic trading income.

till next time

I like your goal but for a different reason. I'm a strong believer in alternative income or income you can live off to protect yourself from the risk of ruin possibilities in trading.

I've met too many people completely dependent upon their trading as their primary / only source of income.

Know a few that live off their dividend portfolio (50k - 100k) per year. In fact, one begin doing such when she was young around 25 years old. At that time, I thought it was very strange but now almost 30 years later...she's still doing such.

wrbtrader

 

[hilmy83]

I like your goal but for a different reason. I'm a strong believer in alternative income or income you can live off to protect yourself from the risk of ruin possibilities in trading.

I've met too many people completely dependent upon their trading as their primary / only source of income.

Know a few that live off their dividend portfolio (50k - 100k) per year. In fact, one begin doing such when she was young around 25 years old. At that time, I thought it was very strange but now almost 30 years later...she's still doing such.

wrbtrader

Definitely believe in the multiple sources of income lifestyle. Right now I just have my 9 to 5 to pay the bills. for the longest time, i tried to make trading the 2nd source and still working at it. Last month when the crash started, i started watching youtubers who do dividend investing and i was super inspired.

I wish I had started the dividend investing a while back. but like they say "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.".