Joining the CME gang

[Overnight]

I think he feels that if he cannot make it work up until this point, then he'd be wasting his time continuing...

He posted his stuff, and said that his stuff was all great on Asia. But he kept losing his mind and account monies on the US session.

We told him multiple times to stop trading the US session, because that was killing his profits. He chose to do it anyway. Reduce size, go to micros, switch instruments, or STOP TRADING.

Am I only one that recognizes that volatility has increased, and what worked a couple years ago is now all gone, zero, shit, worthless? And it all started on Jerome Powell's first day as Fed Chairman. Does nobody remember this day?

Powell made history by simply assuming his new job.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/05/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones/index.html

 

[kellys]

He posted his stuff, and said that his stuff was all great on Asia. But he kept losing his mind and account monies on the US session.

We told him multiple times to stop trading the US session, because that was killing his profits. He chose to do it anyway. Reduce size, go to micros, switch instruments, or STOP TRADING.

Am I only one that recognizes that volatility has increased, and what worked a couple years ago is now all gone, zero, shit, worthless? And it all started on Jerome Powell's first day as Fed Chairman. Does nobody remember this day?

Powell made history by simply assuming his new job.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/05/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones/index.html

You're likely not the only one Overnight, but most of the retail space have little idea about what is actually driving prices and volatility in the markets.

I like you, cannot wait for Trump to exit.
He makes it extremely difficult to trade.
We get random, tweet driven volatility.
Getting sick of it myself to be honest.

 

[themickey]

You're likely not the only one Overnight, but most of the retail space have little idea about what is actually driving prices and volatility in the markets.

I like you, cannot wait for Trump to exit.
He makes it extremely difficult to trade.
We get random, tweet driven volatility.
Getting sick of it myself to be honest.

Volatility is no more or less than any other time. No point blaming POTUS.
Little clue, volatility nearly always increases at tops and bottoms.
Another clue, Sept Oct usually the worst months for positive stock gains, so we are not through yet.

20 year chart

 

[kellys]

Volatility is no more or less than any other time. No point blaming POTUS.

Volatility comes from many sources.
I'm talking about 'random' volatility in combination with random bouts of directionality driven by POTUS!
It is a simple observation. Trump is creating chaos and it can be tough trying to trade/manage positions. It is a fact!
In terms of 'this' volatility, I'm blaming him because he is the source lol

The volatility at market tops and bottoms, well that is another source of volatility.
The volatility this year maybe be twice as much as next year or the year after.
As time progresses, volatility drivers change, and hence volatility changes.
Some volatility is constant, because the driver is constant ex. economic release (non-farm payrolls or key FOMC meet).

Volatility is a good thing, but if you combine that with random bouts of directionality, then that is a pain in the ass.

 

[wrbtrader]

...Am I only one that recognizes that volatility has increased, and what worked a couple years ago is now all gone, zero, shit, worthless? And it all started on Jerome Powell's first day as Fed Chairman. Does nobody remember this day?

Powell made history by simply assuming his new job.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/05/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones/index.html

Traders have been talking about volatility spiking, expanding or whatever for the past week or so here...many doing such without using the word "volatility" as if its Lord Voldemort (dare not speak his name).

I remember that day Monday Feb 5th 2018. It was a historical trading day via it being the largest point loss day for the Dow in history. Amazingly, not much discussion about it here at Elitetrader.com as if most had fallen asleep here or something. Too much calm here at ET and other social media locations.

In fact, I remember the prior trading day of Friday Feb 2nd 2018 when the VIX spiked up into the +15 price area...a breakout to the upside out of a range. The VIX moved 18% to the upside but more importantly...setting it up as a warning day prior to Monday Feb 5th 2018 largest point loss in history.

Friday Feb 2nd 2018 was a huge downtrend day for the Emini futures. The Yields went to "multi-year" highs and by the end of the regular trading session...people were yelling the sky had fallen.

The big boom came then on Monday Feb 5th 2018 when the VIX spiked again up into the +29 price area (100% spike) and the Emini NQ futures dropped -326.50 points. I saw one guy that does not use stops blow up the remainder of his 150k account on that trading day...he said he got a margin call...the broker closed the account (stopped the trading) when it went in the red.

His first big hit came on Friday Feb 2nd 2018...losing like 1/3 of his account in a single trading day. Losing most of the remainder on Monday Feb 5th 2018.

After that, he was no longer an advocate of trading without stops after losing his account in consecutive big losing trading days...an account he built up from 35k in a few years. Crazy...the Friday Feb 2nd big trade loss did not cause him to rethink his over leveraging and his trade management of not using stops. He was (is) a poker player...high stakes and had an unusual view about psychology in his trading.

Strange thing...there's a recent thread here at ET about correlation or lack of between trading & poker. Its something I've seen many times before in the past.

In contrast, I rarely see any discussions about correlation or lack of between trading & gaming. hilmy83 seems to be strongly influence by both gaming and poker.

These big losing days is a wealth of psychology and behavior finance info...the latter I have a strong interest.

wrbtrader

 

[alfa8]

C'mon alfa, that is a big fat cliché! You must have really broken a sweat posting that!
I'm not sure what's worse, throwing around clichés or over analysing lol

Hilmy has a bank account for preserving capital.

as easy as that cliche is; it is right to the point.

Hilmy's objective was to make lots of money using high leverage; where his objective should have been how to preserve his capital to trade another day.

That means he got more time and resources to give it another try!

Once a trader starts to pop up his account with more capital, it is time to call the GF and ask her to excercise plan B! A la Chuck Roades style; or call an expert BDSM lady. Am sure Hilmy will like that

 

[kellys]

as easy as that cliche is; it is right to the point.

Hilmy's objective was to make lots of money using high leverage; where his objective should have been how to preserve his capital to trade another day.

That means he got more time and resources to give it another try!

Once a trader starts to pop up his account with more capital, it is time to call the GF and ask her to excercise plan B! A la Chuck Roades style; or call an expert BDSM lady. Am sure Hilmy will like that

Indeed! It is right to the point and completely useless!
How you do that, well that is useful!
How do you preserve your capital alfa? Maybe Hilmy could benefit from that?

Hilmy's objective was to 'Join the CME gang'. How he planned to get there nobody knows, but he lost his way.

As for Chuck Roades and BDSM ladies, sounds like were going from bad to worse there.

 

[alfa8]

Indeed! It is right to the point and completely useless!
How you do that, well that is useful!
How do you preserve your capital alfa? Maybe Hilmy could benefit from that?

Hilmy's objective was to 'Join the CME gang'. How he planned to get there nobody knows, but he lost his way.

As for Chuck Roades and BDSM ladies, sounds like were going from bad to worse there.

looks like even you are lost and in need of more help. perhaps start a new thread, and be very clear with the title, because nobody fuckung knows how useless you are, even yourself!

 

[wrbtrader]

...Hilmy's objective was to make lots of money using high leverage; where his objective should have been how to preserve his capital to trade another day.

That means he got more time and resources to give it another try!

Once a trader starts to pop up his account with more capital, it is time to call the GF and ask her to excercise plan B! A la Chuck Roades style; or call an expert BDSM lady. Am sure Hilmy will like that

That type of money management (high leverage) or over leverage can not occur in market conditions not suitable for such especially when the trade strategy itself is not suitable for the market conditions.

Simply, high leverage works well when the other ducks are lined up too and the other ducks are not following the mother duck sort'uv when those trading conditions returned like they were in October - December 2018 for hilmy83.

In fact, hilmy83 stated he lost 50% of his account value in one trading day in December 2018. My guess on a day of unusual volatility in the markets.

Regardless, a lot of people don't realize it...hilmy83 is trading via a small account based upon his first broker statement in this thread...he showed 7.6k balance on June 6th 2019...it then peaked at 21.9k on July 12th.

That's spectacular but not so unusual for a small account to 2 - 5x its value in a very short duration while using high leverage. He did it in less than 2 months but that dark side showed up soon after about one month later after the spectacular rise...he's back down to 1.7 on August 16th...a more spectacular decline considering it involved a few large losing trading days.

I've seen a few others here at ET do something similar on a small trading account and then have similar like blow ups too just as fast due to not adjusting to the volatility when it gets crazy.

• What will he do ?

He's use to the over leveraging. It probably causes no fear with him any more considering he's a believer in the concepts of poker & gaming. Therefore, he'll most likely continue via 2 - 3 contracts on a 1.7k account or he finally understand and will only trade 1 contract when in reality that only 1 contract is something he should have been trading back on June 6th at the balance of 7.6k account size.

He would not have had that spectacular rise in the capital but he'll not have had that pectacular decline in the capital...essentially his account balance would be greater today than the 7.6k account value.

Psychology - That's the psychology, as soon as a person experiences a spectacular rise in their trading accounts...we expect such to continue or we think we can turn any drawdown into another spectacular rise in the account value.

Also, we (owner of the account) trick ourself into viewing that new balance as extra money as if it was free money.

In contrast, we should view the growing account balance as sacred...something to protect...lower the risk as soon as the alarm bells are rung by others from the outside.

The danger is that there are others that want that thrill again of seeing another spectacular rise in the account balance. Its a gamers attitude that I've seen in my kids when they play their video games with friends. Ok for games but not ok for trading.

C'mon, you were massively over-leveraged. Your risk of ruin was 100%. So basically we were railbirds watching a guaranteed blowup...

Cognitive dissonance.

destriero is one of the few screaming about the over leverage issue and he understands the gamers attitude tagged with his background in options trading.

I truly hope hilmy83 can grow his account again but at a hare pace so that the value of proper money management can truly sink in.

wrbtrader

 

[destriero]

The guy blows-up and states that reducing size would have resulted in bleeding to death. Prudent allocation allows you to survive the variance within a profitable system.

I don't know if the guy had an edge (doubtful) but he will always blow-up. His psyche depends on it.

"You're a lemon. Like a bad car. There is something... there is something inherently defective in you, and you, and you, and me, and all of us. We're all lemons. We look like everyone else, but what makes us different is our defect. See, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win. When we go to gamble, we go to lose. Subconsciously. Me, I never feel better than when they're raking the chips away; not bringing them in. And everyone here knows what I'm talking about. Hell, even when we win it's just a matter of time before we give it all back. But when we lose, that's another story. When we lose, and I'm talking about the kind of loss that makes your asshole pucker to the size of a decimal point - you know what I mean - You've just recreated the worst possible nightmare this side of malignant cancer, for the twentieth goddamn time; and you're standing there and you suddenly realize, Hey, I'm still... here. I'm still breathing. I'm still alive. Us lemons, we f*** shit up all the time on purpose. Because we constantly need to remind ourselves we're alive. Gambling's not your problem. It's this f***ed up need to feel something. To convince yourself you exist. That's the problem."