This could be true, but high volatility does not last, from my observations. This is why the VIX never stays above 20 for long.
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- Thread starter hilmy83
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This could be true, but high volatility does not last, from my observations. This is why the VIX never stays above 20 for long.
Completely agree which is why I stated earlier in the thread about the mean reversion of the volatility (I can't remember if I used the word VIX) and one particular stats about it...it has never been high one trading day and low the next trading day.
In contrast, it gradually declines (reverts) back to its mean or the prior range that it broke out.
Yet, that mean reversion process is gradual and still dangeous trading conditions. For example, if the VIX is 40 on Monday, 35 on Tuesday, 30 on Wednesday, 25 on Thursday and Friday...
Its still high volatility trading conditions when its mean is sitting around 14 and the culprits that cause the high volatility is still active in the markets...it can easily pop back up to 40 or higher in a few days.
hilmy83 three largest losing trading days have occurred on trading days of volatility far above its mean whereas his profits are consistent when the VIX is near its mean. In fact, I asked a specific question that went unanswer in which I wanted to know if that particular trading day he mention he lost 1/2 of his trading capital in one trading day back in December 2018...I wanted to know which day in December 2018 did it occur so that I can review on my own chart of Emini NQ considering he didn't do a live stream of that particular trading day of losing 1/2 his trading capital.
I did not get an answer but I did mention that October - November was the breakout of volatility to the upside above its range and then spiking higher in December. Volatility peaked the last week of December...most likely this is when he suffer losing 50% of his trading capital in one trading day.
wrbtrader
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Yes. And we are still not out of the danger zone on volatility. I learned some hard lessons after coming out of the salad days of 2017, when I thought I knew how to maintain a consistent profit. The market conditions have fluctuated so much in the intervening 18 months, I have had nary a time to catch my breath.
Again, apologies on the VIX thing. I mean to say VX future, on CME (And now we are on September it seems). It has been at around 19-20 these past couple of days. I do not know what the actual VIX number is.
The problem with trading US session is that price tends to move very fast before parameters from any strategy kick in. Such moves turn out to be a fake one half of the time which often trap in many day traders (including myself) due to fear of missing out a good move.
I were making consistent small profits daily in last few months in my real money account until volatility taking place last few weeks. Should I choose not to chase some of these big moves I'd not end up to spend more than two weeks to recover 90% of losses from those undisciplined trades.
Anyway my point is that there isn't anything wrong with using the same strategies to trade both Asian and US sessions, even in volatile environments because I've seen my strategies work hundreds of times in different market conditions and different time zones. It's us who make the mistake without applying our strategies properly during volatile period. What I've done much better than OP last two weeks is that instead of overleveraging, I scale back to trade during such volatile period to control my emotion and so, I find myself making much better decision following my strategies. For me, I've the skills (trading edges) and risk managements to make consistent profits. My problem is to deal with discipline which I'm still finding my ways to improve.
I were making consistent small profits daily in last few months in my real money account until volatility taking place last few weeks. Should I choose not to chase some of these big moves I'd not end up to spend more than two weeks to recover 90% of losses from those undisciplined trades.
Anyway my point is that there isn't anything wrong with using the same strategies to trade both Asian and US sessions, even in volatile environments because I've seen my strategies work hundreds of times in different market conditions and different time zones. It's us who make the mistake without applying our strategies properly during volatile period. What I've done much better than OP last two weeks is that instead of overleveraging, I scale back to trade during such volatile period to control my emotion and so, I find myself making much better decision following my strategies. For me, I've the skills (trading edges) and risk managements to make consistent profits. My problem is to deal with discipline which I'm still finding my ways to improve.
I guess if you break it all down, the guy can trade. He turned an amount next to nothing, into quite an amount over a short period of time. He has done this repeatedly.
You have to say he has an edge.
But...they guy has some issues.
He's falling apart when market conditions change and he fails to manage his risk correctly.
If he's wired in to the market, then he should know right now that we have plenty on to drive volatility.
If you couldn't be bothered following and sourcing volatility drivers, then you need to at least monitor volatility through indicators.
I'm really not sure whether Hilmy is following vol. drivers right now, or ever has.
If he doesn't sort this out, then he will never be able to put to work the edge he has. It's worth nothing.
I'll say one thing, the guy has some really good qualities...resilience in the face of deep losses, steely resolve, he backs himself and his ability, and he puts himself out there.
If he can sort out his risk management and put some work in on what is driving changes in market conditions, then the guy can do well. I'm almost sure of it.
You have to say he has an edge.
But...they guy has some issues.
He's falling apart when market conditions change and he fails to manage his risk correctly.
If he's wired in to the market, then he should know right now that we have plenty on to drive volatility.
If you couldn't be bothered following and sourcing volatility drivers, then you need to at least monitor volatility through indicators.
I'm really not sure whether Hilmy is following vol. drivers right now, or ever has.
If he doesn't sort this out, then he will never be able to put to work the edge he has. It's worth nothing.
I'll say one thing, the guy has some really good qualities...resilience in the face of deep losses, steely resolve, he backs himself and his ability, and he puts himself out there.
If he can sort out his risk management and put some work in on what is driving changes in market conditions, then the guy can do well. I'm almost sure of it.
Completely agree. Hopefully by now he sees the connection between the changed market conditions to his profit/loss column and then use that new experience to dig himself out of this hole even if its slowly.
The good thing that he has is that he has stability via his job. That alone helps a trader that's struggling to re-energize.
wrbtader
C'mon alfa, that is a big fat cliché! You must have really broken a sweat posting that!
I'm not sure what's worse, throwing around clichés or over analysing lol
Hilmy has a bank account for preserving capital.
C'mon alfa, that is a big fat cliché! You must have really broken a sweat posting that!
I'm not sure what's worse, throwing around clichés or over analysing lol
Hilmy has a bank account for preserving capital.
Out of curiosity, hilmy83 stated he was not going to put more capital to refund his account...
Does that imply he's finish with trading if his account gets low where he's unable to trade or does that imply he'll go back to Forex ?
wrbtrader
I think he feels that if he cannot make it work up until this point, then he'd be wasting his time continuing.
This is another thing with Hilmy, he just says it like it is. I mean to me this is smart, if you have spent a huge amount of time and energy trying and still cannot get anywhere, then better to spend your time on something else.
If he pulls the pin, then he will be doing what a lot of guys cannot do, on their own steam.
For most to quit, they either blow all the money they have or their wife/girlfriend put a gun to their head and tell them politely to stop.
I guess we'll see soon enough, wrb.