Joining the CME gang

[hilmy83]

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Worst trading since journal started happened on Tuesday. The day after i managed to walk away from a $1000 loss on Monday with minimal contracts.

I started out Tuesday with like $100 profit in asia, then decided to trade the EU session (thinking i can recover some loss). That's when it started to fall apart for me. Wasn't expecting a continuation up trend (was stubborn and ego took over), and definitely wasn't expecting almost equal range day that day (+1000 ticks). so losses i took in EU session was affecting me mentally. The need to recoup back losses crept into my mind and i kept going and going.

So the bad trading extended into US session. I finally decided to cut it after few hours but at a huuuuuuge loss. My account was sitting at about $4k end of tuesday. Looking at the back to back 1000 tick days, i decided to put back the $2500 withdrawal i took last month in order to ensure i can still manage to trade the next day with breathing room.

Wed-Fri, i traded smaller, and the range was still large that i was able to recover some losses. You can see the significant difference in commission size on the 3 days. Being able to make that much shows that the range is that great.

The main trigger for me was not adjusting size when the range was hitting 800 ticks plus. My loss of +100 ticks per trade really screwed me over mentally due to the size i traded. It was hard to see the losses removing significant profits you made So the LESSON i took from this is that i came up with a size calculator based on the current range into the session.

I dont' think i would've tilted with smaller size . The bigger losses triggered my fear to recover and I
traded more and more instead of just stopping like monday. technically down 6k for the month.

I think the main issues i have is just purely mental. Knowing how to stop trading when you're down at some point is the skill/awareness I need to develop. Strategy wise, i think it's pretty solid.

the sheer range of this monster is making me rethink of becoming a member now. You really don't need more than few contracts to make a killing with NQ when it starts to expand (usually beginning and end of the year).

PS in my 2 years of trading NQ, i don't ever remember seeing back to back 1000 tick days..it was really making me mentally puke haha

ummm.......yeaaaaaa

see, what had happened was.....................ah fuck it.

I'm just another statistic of the 95% (or was it 98%?) of retail traders over long span of time. You either admit it or live in the delusion that you might have a chance. Yea sure, could've traded smaller and survive longer or trade like me and die quicker lol. Either way, we'll end up at the same spot in the future anyway statistically speaking.

Like i said in the beginning, I'm not going to put anymore money into this like i did in forex. 10 years of deposit/withdraw cycle netted me just 50k at the end; but that really translated to jut few $/hour over 10 years. ANYTHING would've been more profitable besides trading.

I don't think trading in private would've made a difference. That's like saying people who don't post are successful? or trading smaller size? really? that gives you an edge or illusion of an edge cause you're going down slower? most traders lose..that's what it is. those that claim otherwise are probably in the same boat i was back in june. Recency bias is a bitch.

Anyway, will continue trading this meager account and see what happens. as long as this account is tradeable, i'll update it. if it blows (<$500) then that is it folks.

 

[Overnight]

...

Anyway, will continue trading this meager account and see what happens. as long as this account is tradeable, i'll update it. if it blows (<$500) then that is it folks.

And here we are, exactly one month later.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/joining-the-cme-gang.334231/page-2#post-4892915

I knew something looked familiar in those patterns.

Get to the micros ASAP.

I will grant you this...this is the volatility we saw 18 months ago, and it has been a brutal ride. Keep it simple, keep it small.

Your honesty here has been very very refreshing, it is a rare thing. Kudos on that, for what it is worth.

 

[destriero]

I don't think trading in private would've made a difference. That's like saying people who don't post are successful? or trading smaller size? really? that gives you an edge or illusion of an edge cause you're going down slower? most traders lose..that's what it is. those that claim otherwise are probably in the same boat i was back in june. Recency bias is a bitch.

C'mon, you were massively over-leveraged. Your risk of ruin was 100%. So basically we were railbirds watching a guaranteed blowup. But of course you're correct... as everyone who trades risks their entire account or they have no edge.

Cognitive dissonance.

 

[destriero]

And here we are, exactly one month later.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/joining-the-cme-gang.334231/page-2#post-4892915

I knew something looked familiar in those patterns.

Get to the micros ASAP.

I will grant you this...this is the volatility we saw 18 months ago, and it has been a brutal ride. Keep it simple, keep it small.

Your honesty here has been very very refreshing, it is a rare thing. Kudos on that, for what it is worth.

Huh? The guy is a fucking train wreck and you're applauding this?

TBH, I hope he does throw another $25K at it and I can watch The Final Chapter.

 

[themickey]

MarketAddict,

Do you think the "live stream" could be impacting his trade decisions or limiting his ability to recognize when he's trading against the trend (that may be his trading plan...he trades against the trend or could be a mean reversion trader) ???

I've seen traders do very well in private live documentations with just a few trading pals but when they document their trading more public in front of people that are more anonymous and more critical...the trader seems to have more pressure to prove they are right or take more risks.

• I may be wrong about the above opinion because he was not live streaming when his biggest losing trading days occur.

The one commonality I have notice with documentating the trading in front of an audience (chat room, live screen sharing, live stream, in person...ranked in order of popularity) is that there is an increase in the pressure & increase in the fear of trading...most can not manage it that well and they trade outside of their trading plan and they then panic after a few unusual huge trade day losses.

I see this in the reduction of the documentations. Thus, as each month passes...there's less documentation. Yet, I'm not sure if that's because the trader has more personal issues not related to trading, becoming more bored with the documentation, realizing its too much stress or the trader sense that this type of documentation is counter-productive to their trading although we as the viewer / reader enjoys it and should be very grateful that someone has the guts to put themself out there like this the way hilmy83 has done.

I've seen so many trade journals by people that post no verification beyond a text message (e.g. bought / sold) or a small snippet image of a profit / loss column that its comical. Yet, that type of documentation seems to be the norm and accepted.

Hats off to hilmy83 for stepping outside the box with his documentation but I do wish he had live streamed all of his trading days because recently he's been discussing a few trading days that were not live streamed and those trading days involve unusual market conditions.

Also, I've notice his live streams seems to be slowly decreasing since 10 months ago when he first begin to show it on Youtube. He's now doing only about 5 - 7 live streams per month.

wrbtrader

Agree, maintaining a journal is hard work and time consuming.
It starts off with the mentality "sharing some ideas" but often end up "defending your strategy & mentality" when the market applies the blowtorch to your ass.

I enjoy writing algos, been doing so for years and I recently created one which is totally contrary to all my previous trading beliefs, but decided not to journal it, creates too many issues imo.

 

[Overnight]

Huh? The guy is a fucking train wreck and you're applauding this?
...

I am not applauding the train wreck, I am applauding the honesty of his journal. As I have applauded yours. Certainly that has been lacking here on the forum, yes?

 

[destriero]

I am not applauding the train wreck, I am applauding the honesty of his journal. As I have applauded yours. Certainly that has been lacking here on the forum, yes?

He's a cautionary tale. So he's honest and B1S2 is a fraud. He's intellectually dishonest but didn't lie to us about his blowup. Great.

Nothing was gained if nothing was learned.

 

[wrbtrader]

C'mon, you were massively over-leveraged. Your risk of ruin was 100%. So basically we were railbirds watching a guaranteed blowup. But of course you're correct... as everyone who trades risks their entire account or they have no edge.

Cognitive dissonance.

Welcome back and I'm surprise about the psychology tone (cognitive dissonance)...I seduce a woman once with those words.

It was in grad school and she was working on her PhD in psychology.

wrbtrader

 

[Overnight]

He's a cautionary tale...

Nothing was gained if nothing was learned.

This is very true.

 

[wrbtrader]

And here we are, exactly one month later.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/joining-the-cme-gang.334231/page-2#post-4892915

I knew something looked familiar in those patterns.

Get to the micros ASAP.

I will grant you this...this is the volatility we saw 18 months ago, and it has been a brutal ride. Keep it simple, keep it small.

Your honesty here has been very very refreshing, it is a rare thing. Kudos on that, for what it is worth.

The volatility has been a painful lesson for many and I suspected it was going to be the joker card in the deck for any one that played with poor leverage or poor position size management.

I've seen others do much worst recently in the recent volatility movement.

Volatility is seductive...it grabs you and makes you do silly things. Many will try to trade it with hopes of a big pay day. Volatility reminds me of Salma Hayek in the movie Dusk til Dawn.

Not sure what adjustments he used and if he used those new adjustments for his most recent trading day after he stated he would try to right the ship.

P.S. Volatility (a.k.a. Salma) turns into a throat sucking vampire (not shown) at the end of the exotic dance.

wrbtrader