John's Intraday Market Analysis

I've done very little trading the last 2 weeks on futures because I've been watching new indicators to learn more about the events that occur near economic news, breakouts, tops, and bottoms. I've been watching block trades on the futures and their corresponding ETF's. I've been watching block trades on options for the ETF's as well and I'm still trying to come to a good theory on how I can use this information to my advantage.
If anyone uses option data intraday on heavy stocks or index ETF's as a tool to trade and has a tip for me, please respond.

Right now all I can see is support and resistance zones that are broke with volume are good times to enter quickly.
I'm also seeing that near bottoms and tops there will be 2 min of heavy volume and large prints, which may indicate a pause or reversal. I'm also seeing heavy put volume at LOD and heavy call voume at HOD. I'm also seeing option volume before economic news releases.
I'm also using NYSE/NQ/AMEX tick data, and amex tick data has been the easiest to see patterns in and to be able to gauge market strength when trading ER2 particulary.
Hopefully I'll learn something this next week.
 
Today looks bullish. If ES holds 1437.5 and we get a breakout above 1440, and breakout on ym above 12566. Sox looks ok, but TXN needs to breakout above 29.1 for a good rally. ER2, 793.3 new intraday support. Market looks like it's filling some gaps right now, and then we will see what happens next. Also looking to see what happens with oil and XLE in the next 30min which could be ignition for rally.
 
Well I saw a pattern in overnight futures trading on Dec 20 and 21, and I was re-thinking what the the failed support of the overnight move up meant.(what does the overnight failed gap mean) To some it up, short speculators with close stops are taken out overnight, but no new long positions are made, so we fade back to the previous days close with no new gap. Then we have speculators thinking that the day may be bullish from the overnight highs on globex (I was one of them), we make a move up in the moring and test the globex highs, but don't take out globex highs out, or at least we don't do it with strong volume, and guess what time it is after we make this failed breakout,,,,,10-10:30,,,reversal time. The big money moves in and takes the market in the real direction of the trend.

Here is a chart and analysis:

Overnight futures strategies
Dec 20th trade analysis:
Overnight the futures went up 25pts on YM. At the open, the futures were back to breakeven. What happened that day? YM tested the overnight high on globex with light volume right off the bat at the open, but it failed to even touch the globex high, and then it sat until 10am, where it then went to take out the LOD around noon EST, with a LOD around 1pm that was 60+pts lower than the opening price.
Before the day even started a good analysis is that the Globex highs were triggered by stops, with no new commitment of traders, because at the open we were back to the previous days’ closing price.(so we would be expecting a bearish day because the gap up was not supported all the way thru to market open) If we had not retraced to the previous days closing price before the market open, and we had seen volume and support of the morning gap, then my outlook would be bullish.
 

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the end?


i quit trading
1:11 PM Posted by HPT
Labels: HPT Trader
After 6 years of trading, I quit. I have several hundred comments waiting to be published, and I don't know when or if I will ever get to them. I'm quiting trading because I make the same disasterous mistakes over and over and I'm too stupid and stubburn to fix myself. I feel like a complete failure quiting trading at this point. I've spent thousands of hours in front of these computer screens trying to make a living, but it is all at a total loss because I can't manage risk well. Farewell traders!

http://highprobability.blogspot.com...ed&utm_campaign=Feed:+HighProbabilityTrading+(High+Probability+Trading)
 
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