John's Intraday Market Analysis

Watching for this trend line to break.

I've noticed in the past when we get bad "news" (like the Korean Nuke news", the market goes up on the next trading day, and then the next day after that we see selling.

I was remembering back to when we had the news about the train bombings in India. I thought, "bad news", the market is surely to go down, and instead we went up on that trading day, and then the next day we sold off.
 

Attachments

No trading for me tommorow. I have to work on my trade setups. I plan on posting specific trade setups that I will only trade from now on with specific stops and targets. I've been scalping and missing the big moves. My #1 fault is getting stuck on the wrong side during breakout trades, so from now on, I will look to trade mainly breakout trade setups. I need to also analyze block trades during key levels and incorporate that into my intraday analysis. Also I need to do morning market stats and research the probabilities of reversals depending on the advance/declining issues and up/down volume and leading/lagging indices. I need to do daily time frame analysis as well and go into the day thinking of the possible scenarios.(like we just had 2 big up days, we will probably consolidate, so look to buy the morning lows and fade the afternoon highs, and look for a 38% retrace on the daily chart within 5 days after the big up move.)
My goal is to post 10 charts with intraday trade setups that I believe have a high probability of success. I'm not sure when I'll have this done, but I know I have 5 charts already. I plan on having these charts at my desk for reference when I think I see a trade setup forming.

I'll add another rule to my arsenal:
Never trade when your data feed is acting like crap.
Also, re-emphasis, never add to a loser.
 
Quote from john99:

No trading for me tomorrow. I have to work on my trade setups. I plan on posting specific trade setups that I will only trade from now on with specific stops and targets. I've been scalping and missing the big moves. My #1 fault is getting stuck on the wrong side during breakout trades, so from now on, I will look to trade mainly breakout trade setups. I need to also analyze block trades during key levels and incorporate that into my intraday analysis. Also I need to do morning market stats and research the probabilities of reversals depending on the advance/declining issues and up/down volume and leading/lagging indices. I need to do daily time frame analysis as well and go into the day thinking of the possible scenarios.(like we just had 2 big up days, we will probably consolidate, so look to buy the morning lows and fade the afternoon highs, and look for a 38% retrace on the daily chart within 5 days after the big up move.)
My goal is to post 10 charts with intraday trade setups that I believe have a high probability of success. I'm not sure when I'll have this done, but I know I have 5 charts already. I plan on having these charts at my desk for reference when I think I see a trade setup forming.

I'll add another rule to my arsenal:
Never trade when your data feed is acting like crap.
Also, re-emphasis, never add to a loser.
More...

John

I hope you stick to your stops. I dont know you you feel about yesterday, maybe very lucky, but you should feel worse than your -2k loss day, otherwise there is a problem that you seriously need to address. After that loss you should have not have let any trade go so far against you. Maybe that is still in the back of your mind and averaging in is a way of not admitting you were wrong.

I have tried to narrow and define more clearly the setups that I can average in to and the ones that require a tight stop. JMHO

Good trading to you.
 
Quote from BoyBrutus:

John

I hope you stick to your stops. I dont know you you feel about yesterday, maybe very lucky, but you should feel worse than your -2k loss day, otherwise there is a problem that you seriously need to address. After that loss you should have not have let any trade go so far against you. Maybe that is still in the back of your mind and averaging in is a way of not admitting you were wrong.

I have tried to narrow and define more clearly the setups that I can average in to and the ones that require a tight stop. JMHO

Good trading to you.
More...

Thanks BB, I hope everyone reading this journal may be learning something.

Stops will be 0.7pt on ER2 and 9pts on YM.

Market out look for today is bearish. market stats 3:1 bearosh.

Possible Trading setup, fade 2nd high tick between 6:50-7:15.

Target LOD is 740. 736 if 739 is broken.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top