SPEAK ON, BROTHER!!
Johnny Rotten's method
- Thread starter Eldredge
- Start date
Hi Eldredge,
You can ask whatever you like - note from the original thread that any genuine poster was always answered. It was only the spoilers who got me sidetracked! As far as time of day goes, I think flexibility could be order. What I do in the DAX is to take the first 2 or 2.5 hours (that's 03:00 - 05:00/05:30 EST) as my main trade time. It's a great time period because most of you yankee traders aren't there to mess things up! If I've made one or two good trades then I'll just stop. But suppose I've made nothing and the DAX has congested this whole time ...then I might stick around one more hour to see if the move happens then. Same logic for the ES. If nothing has happened 09:30 - 11:30 EST then give it another hour rather than blindly shutting down. My second targeted time period in the DAX is 08:30 - 11:30 EST (i.e. as US Bonds open). Another good time period.
As far as filters go, I can't remember if I put this on the original thread but when looking for a pivot high, try to use ones where the upper Bollinger line was also moving upwards at the time the price spiked, and vice versa. If you think about the logic of it ...you'd be aiming for a 'spike' which represented price expansion rather than price contraction. After all, the idea of these breakouts is to FIRST have momentum, then a brief pullback before going back in the original direction. If we don't have the momentum then what good is the pullback? I don't apply this as a blanket rule but it's often a good pointer.
The trouble with the ES is that one gets a move, then it starts pulling back and keeps pulling back. Driving John mad! There is no question as the other poster noted that the huge institutional involvement in the ES makes it nuts. It constantly 'backs and fills'. One has to be extremely patient to sit through a lot of noise to hold for a decent size winner. The DAX on the other hand with it's lower volume ...when it wants to run, it will RUN. No messing around. When I hit a breakout in the DAX, if it's not profitable after just 3 minutes I am gone. Because I know what "should" happen when I'm right. But you can't play the ES that way.
Romeo: as far as DB goes ...he's OK with me. Doesn't matter that he backtracked a few times. He posts in a lucid manner and doesn't appear to differentiate between a new poster and an elite one. He can also be funny. I suspect he probably just 'debates' more than he trades but hell, if that were a crime, this board wouldn't exist. And you have one major problem: Gordon Gecko agrees with you!!!!
Because it's actually a much bigger problem that Gordon Gecko has arrived on this thread. I can't imagine a kiss of death worse than that. Next thing I know, he'll have 5000 posters on here all "helping" him with their pearls of wisdom about what job he should do while he builds up another trading stake. Read any of Gordon's "woe is me / I'm so pathetic / but I'll also be the greatest trader ever later on" stuff and it's enough to make you reach for the bucket. Actually, it's the thousands of 'helpful' replies he gets from elite members that are truly insufferable!!!!
The guy I miss most around town is Bubba Jack Hershey whom I see also got banned. He was such a babbling incomprehensible fool that I miss our encounters. He was actually a really funny bloke the way he would waffle on! But I digress, and hope I answered your Q's ....
I have a very simple and totally logical way of defining whether a market is shitty. Whether or not I am able to make good money in it! Because if I can't then it MUST be shitty. As every good trader will tell you, it's never them. It's always "the market"!!!! Right now, the DAX works better for me so I focus on it, that's all. I'm sure that better traders than me can make good money in the ES.
Attached an example of this Bollinger line direction as being a filter for which spikes to pay most attention to. It's a one minute chart so target for me would likely be 5 points with BE after 2.5 points. Both trades fell short of target and broke even, but thought the charts would be interesting to visually see this filter in action.
These two DID hit their target. The thing to remember is that this isn't a mechanical method. It takes adaptation and good interpretation to pick the right spikes to key off. What is worth noting is that in the DAX ...by risking 3pts (75 Euro) you can very often make 5 points (125 Euro) within a matter of minutes, with BE trigger at 2.5 points ensuring minimal risk.
Add these two trades together and you were in the market for less than six minutes and made 250 Euros (about $270). Compare that to trying to make 5 pts in the ES. You'd have to willing to stay with the ES up to an hour, maybe two. I have a hard drive with that - my shortcomings as a trader maybe?! I simply prefer 'hit and run'.
In short, Johnny Rotten BBBO is alive and well but as with everything else ...it requires adaptation when markets change. There is no such thing as a formulaic approach to trading success.
Add these two trades together and you were in the market for less than six minutes and made 250 Euros (about $270). Compare that to trying to make 5 pts in the ES. You'd have to willing to stay with the ES up to an hour, maybe two. I have a hard drive with that - my shortcomings as a trader maybe?! I simply prefer 'hit and run'.
In short, Johnny Rotten BBBO is alive and well but as with everything else ...it requires adaptation when markets change. There is no such thing as a formulaic approach to trading success.
Something to chew around so to speak ....
If it is ...
Anyway, who says there are wackos on this site?! Didn't they ban Jack Hershey? He was my all time favourite and I genuinely miss him. What about a bring back Jack poll? We're all wackos in one way or another and I think banning anyone is crazy. My feeling is that the BBBO method may be old hat at this point. They're probably just aren't enough folk interested in trading non-US symbols. Those that are can always PM me, cos I'm always up for anyone's else twists and perceptions/improvements on this type of trading. But I've no great desire to re-create another JR thread. Not with Jack not around to put me straight anymore
