https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattry...of-handicapping-in-horse-racing/#79211a5c3fa1
2018 Kentucky Derby: How Analytics Are Transforming The Art Of Handicapping In Horse Racing
With isolated to scattered thunderstorms forecast and the threat of heavy rain on Saturday in Louisville, sharp bettors could be scrambling to make last-minute adjustments with their superfecta part-wheels as they pursue a hefty payout at the 144th Kentucky Derby.
Poor weather has hampered racing conditions in two of the previous five Derbies, contributing to a thick, muddy track at Churchill Downs in victories by Orb in 2013 and Always Dreaming last May. Whereas an approaching low-pressure system may have created panic for bettors in the past, racing enthusiasts are now relying on statistical tools that help them prepare for certain track changes and a litany of other factors that may impact the outcome of a race.
As analytics continue to alter the professional sports landscape, horse racing is the latest to use advanced statistical modeling to help guide a bettor's decision-making process. Two platforms in particular, OptixEQ and STATS Race Lens, may have the ability to modernize handicapping, a practice that predates the Derby itself.
Launched in August 2016, STATS Race Lens combines predictive modeling with other features such as conditional formatting and handicapping back-testing to assist bettors in sifting through a mountain of data before a race.
Take the weather forecasts for Saturday's Run For The Roses, for instance. STATS True Odds uses predictive algorithms developed by STATS LLC in an attempt to determine how a race will unfold. The tool gives handicappers the option of weighing a multitude of factors — speed, class, jockey, trainer, pace and track conditions, etc. — when trying to predict the race. A bettor who expects the weather to play a large role can assign a high probability factor to the conditions of the track while giving less weight to considerations such as a jockey's win percentage at Churchill Downs.
From there, the platform compares the live odds for each horse in the field with their adjusted true odds when the factors are taken into account. At the Derby, Enticed may go off at odds as high as 30-1 but could see his adjusted true odds drop to somewhere around 15-1 depending on the win probability factors selected by the user. If bettors can spot such overlays, their chances of hitting a live long shot could increase exponentially.
By the same token, if handicappers are worried by Justify's ability to handle a large field, they can reflect those concerns in the probability weighting. In that case, Justify may go off as the post-time favorite at 9-2 but could have adjusted true odds from the handicapper of 6-1.
The platform has done more than help bettors improve their overall win rates, said Craig Walker, a senior product development at TrackMaster, a subsidiary of Equibase. In many cases, the tool has enabled handicappers to reduce the number of hours spent on breaking down a card by as much as half, he explained. In February 2017, Equibase and Xpressbet announced a strategic initiative to offer STATS Race Lens on Xpressbet's wagering platform.
OptixEQ, meanwhile, attempts to strip out extraneous information that may trip up a handicapper in formulating a bet while placing a greater emphasis on factors that directly impact a horse, like pace setup and positioning at key points of a race.
In 2010, OptixEQ founder John Doyle left a position as an account executive at IBM to pursue a career in handicapping. Months later, Doyle rallied on the final day of the National Handicapping Contest to capture the tournament and a $500,000 grand prize.
"The whole thing that is going on in sports today is that the analytics guys are fighting the guys who have been scouting their whole life," Doyle said. "I think there is a combination; that's what we try to focus on."
The company's OptixPLOT analytics examines each horse in a given race, relative to the rest of the field. The horses are divided into four quadrants, representing their expected pace, running style and positioning for the race. Since the inception of OptixEQ, the winner of the Kentucky Derby has typically come out of Quadrant I, which contains forwardly placed speed horses. Nearly half the field in this year's Derby is located in Quadrant I, including Justify, Audible and Good Magic. Although it is less common to see an off-the-pace horse from Quadrant II and Quadrant IV prevail in the first leg of the Triple Crown, Doyle noted that horses like Commanding Curve and Lookin At Lee have rallied to place in recent years.
Before the digitalization of horse race betting, picking winners used to be considered an art form in which racing aficionados would specialize as either speed or class handicappers, said NTRA chief operating officer Keith Chamblin. On the contrary, the most successful handicappers today are more steeped in analytics and technological advances, he added.
"Many of them don't even look at the physical horse, just the output of their algorithm," Chamblin said.
Chamblin views the evolution of analytics in horse betting as one that the racing industry is trying to nurture properly.
"Racing produces more data than probably any other sport, and there is so much to dive into for those that are inclined," Chamblin said. "If it encourages more wagering and attracts new customers, then as long as it's being done fairly, we welcome this style of play."
Have you heard of Richard Eng? I think that's his name. He writes a tip sheet and several times a year, according to anonymous commenters thanking him, he has picked the pick 6. The sheet is $6 a day, though.
