Right now I will keep it 100.
The American Way:
This journal is my tribute to Bob Lassiter, the Hippy You Love to Hate! At least the establishment.
Bob made millions of dollars, married younger and didn't have to fly commercial.
I fly coach.
It is also a challenge! The market is like the horse track albeit with worse odds. At least your local handicappers "play of the day," has a verifiable track record of when his horse comes in the top three spots. All the money goes into the same pot and you take from it based on your skill level and professionalism.
So, why all the gambling references?
Cramer used to recommend a book written by a horse handicapper. I knew one in high school; we played pool together on occassion. But, here was my obstacle. I did not understand the risk of ruin, so I never played, until Saturday. I have allotted a certain amount of money, based on the minimum $2 bet entirely according to a handicappers "play of the day." Funny thing. His track record is just that, you can track it. $1000 will slow me down, not ruin me. It either works ir it doesn't.
The horse I played Saturday was at 12-1 when I placed the bet, opened, and remained at 10:1. According to the book I bought some of the pros bet on one horse a day. It could take years to learn that with a 2% chance of success. But, it only takes a second to find one with a verifiable record. Follow him!
According to the probability table that is posted twice in this journal - to
@Simples posted a risk of ruin calculator in the mystery journal which is far better - it is almost certain the losing streak of 10 will happen within the next 50 trades.
But, you math guys can figure out the max losing streak, but I am looking at the reward. Over 500 races, my max loss is $1000. If the winning oercentage is accurate, well - you figure it out. Its a positive expectancy.
Now, this is what gave me the idea. For a minute, I subscribed to a trader chat podcast. Two academics, in separate funds, both credited their success to an early career handicapping horses based solely on algorithms and the laws of probability.
I am not endorsing the ponies, but, let's be honest, the odds are much better - the learning curve is nill. I have been on gambling runs when the dude goes on tilt. I don't play poker, but it is the same as revenge trading. Those were the nights you cleaned up, even from your friends. I never did that in pool, so over time I had a positive expectancy. The problem was my skill level. Ask old timers will tell you, Bakers in the old days, was a movie in the making. Bill Allison was on the same circuit as Minnesota fats, he woukd telp stories about the old days. He parlayed his gambling skills into business. I learned a lot there, but my aptitude for pool was limited, no matter how much effort. No matter how much money was on the line I never saw one of these dudes go on tilt. Not one of those dudes was younger than 50. They were professionals.
I played in bars and I would tweak certain people to throw them off there game.
I have got my ass kicked a few times. But, I was much angrier when I was younger. Besides, its America and we love to fight. We won't be pushed around. Young men are taught this. No judgement, really.
But when angry guys get older their fight gets bigger. Bob took on the system in local
@tampa radio.
Read those hall of fame threads. He took on the Holy Grail of nice guys giving away the Holy Grail. Bob even says in one of those threads that one of his motivations was to fight the man. Take miney from the 1%ers. It doesn't hurt them butvit feels good!
Bob read all the books, found something that worked for him, and played it. I believe that, but I also believe he was telling a real story to fight the wolves in the trading community.
My only fight is with a few rabid dogs on Elite Trader that tell people bullshit like stop trading, you suck as we all recognize Jesse as legendary. He would have laughed at Elder! Elder is a gambler who cannot control himself, so he came up with rules. Over time his body developed a knew neuropathway. He literally became a new creation based on science! It is the same as muscle memory.
Back to handicapping. Both of those people playing OPM played sparingly developed from their data.
The common thread in ET is don't play like a gambler. Before Cramer decided to be a TV star he never talked about diversification. He would be long a popular stock and juice the futures in the premarket to squeeze the shorts. That was the real deal. If he was long a stock, he would average down by buying 500,000 shares every point during the dotcom boom. He rode the energy stocks and paid for his Harvard education. He left picks on his answering machine.
All the things we cannot do. Except for the last one.
Oh, and one more thing, science confirms that if you teach others the very process that you are attempting to Master, that ingrains the concepts within you - whether those concepts work or not.
So, why would the successful guy throw shade at you? To tweak you!
Remember who is taking your money! The Man! Just like Bob, part of my mission is to stick it to the man by taking some of his money. First I have to get back some of my money. I plunge with whatever stake I have based upon my current knowledge. See the post where I lost 20 grand in minutes. Insert the Rocky theme here as I chase market chickens and do one handed push ups!
The only eay this works is if I produce a verifiable track record. $1,000 is a small price to pay. If it works I fund my account!
Then we are iff to the races. I believe I have found a repeatable pattern, that rarely happens in the market. At 50 I am patient enough to wait for it. The winning percentage seems very high. The risk is definable. The leverage is based upon a max loss per trade. High win percentage. The reward is less than 3:1 on those rare, beautiful days. Quite a few are around 1:1. I can see why you might want to keep secrets!
So, what happened with the NFL and NCAA picks. Turns out, the tout was not using his real name. Oh well. That was $50 bucks. Lesson learned.
Some people read journals to HELP, I used them looking for answers and further my progression, and some people love to tweak you, especially when the market has had its way with you. So, once again even Jesse killed himself. Stop being dicks to people who are on the same learning curve as Jesse. The end result may be the same. I am only here to tell you that science gives you hope. But, the logic guys will never have the guts to make the big bets - unless its OPM!
You can build new neuropathways.
