Johnny Rock's comeback

[johnnyrock]

I have heard of the 12 steps programs. Mostly for alcoholism. I did not know it existed for gambling addiction.
As you mention this program, did you check with them to find out that you did not tick gambling addiction caracteristics?

No. I gambled in pool for years and did not show the same characteristics as exhibited with my trading. Why? I knew my limitations and played those who did not. If I lost three games in a row I would stop. I would watch someone's stroke, and their personality, to identify targets. Sometimes I would even push their buttons to make them go on tilt. Not one time did I ever go on tilt. I obeyed my own rules to keep me from being hustled, or have a blow up. To be perfectly honest, that was much easier.

I have played roulette once, one hand of blackjack, and the lotto three times over my lifetime. Pool was a source of income in high school, and somewhat, in my 20s.

I look to the market for a similar income source, but for some reason, did not have rules in place to safeguard my sanity or account - even though many people advised me. Pride goes before the fall and I simply could not differentiate between skill and luck. Knowledge is the key.

 

[smallStops]

No. ...

...Pool was a source of income in high school, and somewhat, in my 20s...

... for some reason, did not have rules in place to safeguard my sanity or account - even though many people advised me.

....

...Why you did not?

... Why did you stop Pool as you could win well at it?

... what were the reasons?

 

[johnnyrock]

...Why you did not?

... Why did you stop Pool as you could win well at it?

... what were the reasons?

Playing drunks in bars is not the same. Nice money for a high school kid, and some extra cash when it presented itself, but I had a golden opportunity to spend time with legitimate hustlers at Bakers. I not only was not in that class, but I played for hours everyday to see if I had a shot at getting to that level. I did not. I accepted reality and got a job.

I may have to accept the same reality with trading, but this journal will provide me with cold, hard facts to see if I go to the next step, a live account.

 

[smallStops]

Sorry, I should have precised, that - in my views - anyone can make it at trading, as long as the person is able and willing to face their weaknesses as they are ( we all have one), and deal with them. Kind of a mindset of being clear about whatever problem/barrier are there, and just working at removing these so as to clear the way to whatever goal one has. So do understand that my questions are not about discouraging, just understanding where the issues really are. I am a great optimist. .

so what were the reasons?

 

[johnnyrock]

Sorry, I should have precised, that - in my views - anyone can make it at trading, as long as the person is able and willing to face their weaknesses as they are ( we all have one), and deal with them. Kind of a mindset of being clear about whatever problem/barrier are there, and just working at removing these so as to clear the way to whatever goal one has. So do understand that my questions are not about discouraging, just understanding where the issues really are. I am a great optimist. .

so what were the reasons?

That is what I am trying to figure out. In stocks I followed a simple system that someone gave out for free on the web. That was not a system I developed, but I was not content. The system was a trending system that worked great in a trending market.

Some guy by the alias of Cal Trader used his student loan money and opened a futures account . He made some serious cash and I switched to futures because of the leverage and ability to scale up.

So, over confidence - unwarranted, because I did not develop the stock system - and completely disregarding risk were two problems. My next problem was never finding a consistent edge and trading with real money during the discovery stage. Experience has taught me that you can have winning streaks even though you don't know what you are doing. I am only speaking of myself here.

Mean reversion trades, specifically trading around key levels on stop runs, gave me hope; in the end I would give back weeks worth of gains in one fell swoop because I didn't realize it was a trend day. So that way of trading that could never bring me long term success.

I thought that identifying trend days would be the solution, but have yet to be able to do that. What is worse is that I identify eight out of two trend days. Another form of over trading - simply put, not really being able to do it.

Those are the problems I have identified, for now. Keeping this journal may reveal the obstacles I have yet to confront.

 

[beerntrading]

I've noticed is off-the-shelf strategies are not something that works well in all executions. It's why so many live callers can be profitable while their followers lose.

Another one I see is that time frame is absolutely vital. Two people can see the same signal, take opposite interpretations of it and both be right (or both wrong) just based on what their time frame is.

That's why I've worked slowly to develop my own strategies that works for me...and slowly evolve it when I look back at:
-Why did I lose that much money and how do I prevent it in the future?
-Why did I pass up one signal for others when the first was the best return? How can I get in the right ones in the future?
-Why did I miss the reversal from my initial entry? Could I have foreseen that?

One big corner I turned was being able to look back at a loser and call it a good trade, or a winner and call it bad...the acceptance that luck will forever play a role, and I can't control it and must accept it.

 

[johnnyrock]

I've noticed is off-the-shelf strategies are not something that works well in all executions. It's why so many live callers can be profitable while their followers lose.

Another one I see is that time frame is absolutely vital. Two people can see the same signal, take opposite interpretations of it and both be right (or both wrong) just based on what their time frame is.

That's why I've worked slowly to develop my own strategies that works for me...and slowly evolve it when I look back at:
-Why did I lose that much money and how do I prevent it in the future?
-Why did I pass up one signal for others when the first was the best return? How can I get in the right ones in the future?
-Why did I miss the reversal from my initial entry? Could I have foreseen that?

One big corner I turned was being able to look back at a loser and call it a good trade, or a winner and call it bad...the acceptance that luck will forever play a role, and I can't control it and must accept it.

Good post!

 

[johnnyrock]

Look at the similarity between the 240 and the daily!

If/when this larger pattern breaks down, I will day trade it. One of two things happen: (1) the market reverses and I get stopped out, or (2) trend day potential. If I had the equity I would hold this for a swing trade.

I read in another thread where the OP was going to sell PUTS on the SPY as if this was a risk free strategy. He was adopting this plan for a guaranteed income, so his funds would make $$$ in between trades. A significant drop could take months to work through before reaching these levels again. This plan would insure he buys at a premium.

I am not calling a top, but I am betting on a correction. Why? To me this is a sign that a lot of people are discounting risk.

Trade me or fade me?

 

[johnnyrock]

Recipe:

Coffee
2 chocolate chunk cookies
2 dollops of peanut butter
Sugar, lots of sugar
4 shots of vodka

Your welcome.

 

[johnnyrock]

If funds were avaiable, I would be short right here, at this price, sleeping like a baby.

Fade me or Trade me?