Johnny Rock's $100,000 Challenge

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  • Bad news (inflation)
  • Good action (so far the market is going up)

  • If that continues, it just shows how strong this market still is.
 
  • Still in paper trade mode
  • Today didn't turn out like I expected
  • Small profit; basically a scratch on the day
  • A few years ago, I would have lost a ton of money on a day like today
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  • Bad news, good action
On these types of days, I expect to see some follow through, minimal pullback and off to the races. That didn't happen. Even more perplexing is the fact that we are at all time highs on the ES/SPY.

I pulled up a chart for wheat a few weeks ago. It was at the same time that I read an article about record stock participation. I also pulled up a chart of the DJIA. Both charts were from the 50s to present day. The charts were almost inverse mirror images of one another.

If we are in fact in a boom cycle for commodities, then the market should top out soon. However, gold and wheat are telling two different stories.

Shouldn't ALL hard assets - outside of energy - be in a strong bull phase if we are running out of steam?

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My method doesn't revolve around indicators. I use them as a guide to see momentum shifts on the 15' time frame.

  1. Bias
  2. Basis
  3. Inflection points: S/R, HOD, LOD, YH, YL, pullbacks, fades, etc.

The bias comes from news, how the market(s) are reacting, and finding an entry point where I expect to see momentum.

My exits rarely come from my stop being hit, or even the indicators giving an exit signal. I have been primarily looking at the pace of the bid/ask; is volume drying up at resistance/support, is it accelerating at the end of a run? I also use relative volume.

Anyways, this journal is just that. A journal. Thanks for stopping by. If you're reading this, read it for what it is.
 
Thoughts for the day:
  1. High probability of an inside, narrow range daily bar; low volatility day
  2. Unless a major crash (quick crash to yesterday's lows which catches a bid for a long/fade trade) or impulse above the highs happens (momentum/pullback), there isn't anything for me to do
  3. I don't scalp
  4. I'm looking for momentum that lasts several 15' bars
  5. My goal is to anticipate potential movement around inflection points
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When I look over my paper trading results, I can plainly see what type of days contribute the most to the bottom line. We will talk more about that later. A key factor in building my real account is just waiting for the right news setups. Gaps reversals and trend days make the biggest impact.

With that in mind, I added the NYMEX data package and will be watching the MCL too when it starts trading. One key factor is staying out of the fray on most days.

Once I get more capital, and become comfortable watching several markets, I may open this up to more than just the MCL and MES.

  • Results will still be updated monthly
  • Initial deposit is approximately $2100 only because of IBKR requiring $2000 minimum account balance to trade futures
  • Real trading begins next month
 
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