John Henry--The Next Blow Up ??

NKNY · Aug 2, 2005

Number 1 in blowouts

apparently people still feel the need to help pay for this speculators education...

ktm · Aug 2, 2005

Vic doesn't list with IASG. His fund is called Matador and he's up about 20% for the year before July with over 160M under mgmt. He is not number one in any category that I am aware of...top ten maybe in a few limited categories, but not #1.

shortswing · Aug 2, 2005

Niederhoffer is a smart guy who has run money successfully and you've got to give him his due. He's also an insufferably pompous ass who blew out his entire fund in less than a week during the Asian Contagion panic.
I tried to get through his first book, but Nieder's arrogance and almost absurdly baroque writing style proved impossible to plow through.
In short, V. Niederhoffer the man is a horse's ass.

V. Niederhoffer the trader is an astute option writer. His trading style is subject to the same risk/reward profile as that of any option writer; i.e., he eats like a chicken and . . . (well, you know

) Caveat Emptor.

As far as how his fund is "ranked", I don't really even know what that means. His fund achieved the best risk-adjusted (s dev.) return of any large reporting hedge fund the year before he blew out. You might want to keep that in mind when considering the value of so called "rankings".

I believe IASG only has stats on CTA's, so his fund wouldn't be listed there. His brother Roy runs RG Niederhoffer which is a CTA.

Also, if JW Henry blows out, I'll eat my hat.

Steelhead · Aug 2, 2005

Quote from johngaltsaxe:

niederhoffer's fund is currently ranked( 2005) number 1 worldwide of all funds over 100 million by reputable ranking services.

any other questions?

john galt's axe

get lost marketspammer, dont you know the community of ET has had enuf of your B.S.? maybe we ought to send the message to the lame ducks who follow your site

jnhighland · Aug 2, 2005

Quote from GetWhatUDeserve:

It depends on the beliefs you have about the markets. If you believe market behavior is purely random, then my discussion below does not apply. If you believe that then you are not alone. For example I had a college professor who stood on a soapbox for the Random Walk Hypothesis regarding the markets. I noticed over the years that while I would listen and discuss it with him, as I traded, I became more wealthy while he did not. Just food for thought.

First, my definition of a system is "any trading methodology." In trading, while you can't predict the short term, as in the next number of trades, the long term is relatively predicable regarding the probabilities over the longer term. Especially as the number of trials or signals grows (the Law Of Large numbers).

Example: Las Vegas, or now any profitable casino. How can corporations justify spending billions on lavish hotels, amenities, shows that lose money, and other items year after year? The answer: these firms know that over many trials (bets/wagers) they will take in at least 4.5% of every dollar wagered. Thats 4.5cents per dollar. Not a lot right? Imaging how many dollars are wagered per day in your average casino. That adds up to millions and billions of dollars per year. Thats after everyone is paid out: the jackpot winners, the average winners, etc etc.

Second, while casinos don't know what will happen on the next roll of the dice or the next hand, they don't need to. Just like in trading, you DO NOT NEED TO KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT IN ORDER TO MAKE MONEY. All that casinos and any successful trader needs to know is the expectation of his system over time, over many trials. When you are a good trader, you behave like the Casino owners and you pick trading methodologies that put the odds in your favor.

Conversely, if you don't know the expecatation of your trading methodology, then you may not have the confidence to trade your system the same regardless of the outcome of any independent event. This is where so many traders blow up. They freak out after a series of losing trades and change their trading method. When in fact, if the system has been defined and tested, this could be part of a very profitable methodology. YOU TRADERS OUT THERE KNOW WHO YOU ARE. But overall, even the change in trading behavior is still part of that trader's "system", the system is just not a very profitable one.

While the future cannot be predicted in a case by case manner, in the long run statistical probabilities do work. Another example is in the insurance industry. Do you think the insurance companies could stay in business if their risk profiles of customers didn't pan out to be true in the long run? The answer is no. Its true that some do go out of business, but the best tend to stay in business cause they know the probabilities. And when the probabilities change, they change their systems. Again, we see the value of statistical tools in seemingly random(short term) events.

Why do I spend time posting consistently this information, when there are so many who love to refute it. I can tell you, its not not for you guys who want to argue against me. Thats a losing battle that I don't want to pour energy into. Its really for me and perhaps the few who will eventually get it. For me, its a constant reminder that I am playing against people who have either no idea or a vague idea about statistical reliability. I make more money when I get better at it as well. Those who argue against are the ones that I am preparing to take money from.

At the end of the day, I take money from those who don't understand and apply this principle.

One of the best posts I have ever found in this website!

jnhighland · Aug 2, 2005

Does anyone know names of trend following hedge funds that operate in the Connecticut area?

vulture · Aug 2, 2005

Quote from Steelhead:

get lost marketspammer, dont you know the community of ET has had enuf of your B.S.? maybe we ought to send the message to the lame ducks who follow your site

Right on Steelhead. Marketspammer has proven to be a master puppet of VN in his endless attempts to pass off VN's theories as his own.

OneHipCat · Aug 2, 2005

Looks like all of his funds were up strongly in May and June. 10.11% for his Strategic Allocation Fund and more for some others, June looks promising aswell. http://www.jwh.com/fund_details.asp?prg=1

How do they calculate monthly performance figures? Are they calculated from the same month a year ago? Or just the previous month?

Banjo · Aug 2, 2005

Quote from shortswing:

Niederhoffer is a smart guy who has run money successfully and you've got to give him his due. He's also an insufferably pompous ass who blew out his entire fund in less than a week during the Asian Contagion panic.
I tried to get through his first book, but Nieder's arrogance and almost absurdly baroque writing style proved impossible to plow through.
In short, V. Niederhoffer the man is a horse's ass.

V. Niederhoffer the trader is an astute option writer. His trading style is subject to the same risk/reward profile as that of any option writer; i.e., he eats like a chicken and . . . (well, you know ) Caveat Emptor.

As far as how his fund is "ranked", I don't really even know what that means. His fund achieved the best risk-adjusted (s dev.) return of any large reporting hedge fund the year before he blew out. You might want to keep that in mind when considering the value of so called "rankings".

I believe IASG only has stats on CTA's, so his fund wouldn't be listed there. His brother Roy runs RG Niederhoffer which is a CTA.

Also, if JW Henry blows out, I'll eat my hat.

Thank you on all counts.

aPismoClam · Aug 2, 2005

Quote from jay gould:

John HENRY, FAMED trend Trader and Guru to the trend cult is continuing his losing ways--down 11.28% in April and down 32.35% for the year. His fund is currently ranked the WORST performer in 2005 of public funds.

Is this the next disaster in the making??

Stay Tuned......

J. Gould, financier

trend following cult?