You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
John Henry--The Next Blow Up ??
- Thread starter jay gould
- Start date
in just the first chapter of "education of a speculator" there is the account of VN short (or long?) the yen for millions, where he had to sit in front of the computer for days before being able to sell off at a loss
he also talks about making agreements with his wife about cutting him off from making decisions if things go unexpectedly
who am I to talk, but seems like a volatile way to trade
he also talks about making agreements with his wife about cutting him off from making decisions if things go unexpectedly
who am I to talk, but seems like a volatile way to trade
Quote from jay gould:
John HENRY, FAMED trend Trader and Guru to the trend cult is continuing his losing ways--down 11.28% in April and down 32.35% for the year. His fund is currently ranked the WORST performer in 2005 of public funds.
Is this the next disaster in the making??
Stay Tuned......
J. Gould, financier
i have just found the following quote on turtletrader.com
"Trend Following: Trend Following
Volatility is Life
Some trend following critics have expressed a familiar sentiment:
...the consistent volatility [and drawdown] of these systems makes it an untenable strategy, at least for me.
Trend Following Skeptic
It's true that trend following is untenable for those that cannot stand the feelings of being in a drawdown. For those that are ok with drawdowns, perhaps an untenable strategy is one that avoids volatility at all costs, thereby effectively avoiding large returns as well.
Dunn, Henry, and other great trend followers have seen drawdowns come and go. They also know the kind of returns that typically follow periods of drawdown. Maybe that helps them stay on their system. It constantly amazes me that during the good times everybody wonders how these folks make so much money, and during the drawdowns everyone wonders why those guys are so stupid as to keep trading those obviously "dead" strategies."
this answers your question.
sorry, it only confuses the issue.
The trend promoters always tell you-- "your position will come back, just hold it!" but at the same time, they say "cut your losses"--it will come back--just look at Dunn, Henry, et al---but then the difference between buy/sell and hold and trend following is cutting your loss. come on guys, this is a total contradiction.
MLZ
The trend promoters always tell you-- "your position will come back, just hold it!" but at the same time, they say "cut your losses"--it will come back--just look at Dunn, Henry, et al---but then the difference between buy/sell and hold and trend following is cutting your loss. come on guys, this is a total contradiction.
MLZ
Quote from martinlutherzen:
sorry, it only confuses the issue.
The trend promoters always tell you-- "your position will come back, just hold it!" but at the same time, they say "cut your losses"--it will come back--just look at Dunn, Henry, et al---but then the difference between buy/sell and hold and trend following is cutting your loss. come on guys, this is a total contradiction.
MLZ
I don't think it is.
Cutting your losses on any given trade is completely independent from cutting your losses trading a strategy.
You can adhere to "cut your losses on any given trade" and "stick to your guns on the strategy" simultaneously without any contradiction whatsoever.
Quote from flat5:
I don't think it is.
Cutting your losses on any given trade is completely independent from cutting your losses trading a strategy.
You can adhere to "cut your losses on any given trade" and "stick to your guns on the strategy" simultaneously without any contradiction whatsoever.
that makes some sense. however, think about this, how many individual losing trades in a diversified "trend following" portfolio would it take to equal 35% plus drawdowns in 5 months??
market luther
Quote from marketlutherzen:
that makes some sense. however, think about this, how many individual losing trades in a diversified "trend following" portfolio would it take to equal 35% plus drawdowns in 5 months??
market luther
Market Luther? LOL
You fancy yourself as the Martin Luther of ET? Here to warn the masses of the dangerous doctrine of trend following? Give us a break Jay Gould, you're digging yourself deeper into a hole of ridicule here. Actually, you know what, maybe we should have more Martin Luthers of trading around. To warn people of the dangers of ignorance when attempting trend following as well as contrarian methods. Ignorance reveals itself through the wipe outs of non capitalized traders trying to be John Henry and on the other hand through arrogant blown ups such as VN.
If you want to be a real Market Luther, you have to first get some intellectual honesty and quit criticising people with such track records as JHenry. Second, you've got to look into the philosophical naivete of pseudo quant doctrine that uses prehistoric tools such as correlation coefficients, regression, and whatever weak linear statistical tools that a freshman can pull out of his introductory course to statistics, to advocate the efficient market hypothesis or invalidate TA. Third, you have to do some soul searching and realize that trying to uncover market inefficiencies with such tools is like trying to find gold with a teaspoon in the middle of South Africa's bush land.
Once you've had the emotional courage to do that, come back and let the rest of ET know that you're da man, ready to educate us into what REALLY works in the markets.
:eek: