John Burbank - UC Berkeley Haas 14th April 2015
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I just wonder, so the next time there's a crisis, central banks future act of para-dropping money by direct financing of budget deficits would have any impact on inflation or inflation expectations despite aging demography, global workforce depressing wages, and deflationary impact of technology causing greater efficiencies?
And with him expecting strong dollar and better DM vs. EM investment cycle, then avoid commodities such as gold, especially with China infrastructure intensity of spending basically over, and gold being strongly correlated with the overall commodities cycle. Paul Tudor Jones is also bearish on commodities for at least the rest of this decade. http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-tudor-jones-and-druckenmiller-panel-2014-10
Then I suppose the scenario which he didn't talk about of the Chinese reminbi eventually displacing or sharing reserve currency status with the heavily debt ridden US Dollar is thus far away, which is why he still expects strong Dollar and weak commodities. Maybe this macro scenario is at least 10 or 15 years away. Burbank's focus is the next 5 years.
And with him expecting strong dollar and better DM vs. EM investment cycle, then avoid commodities such as gold, especially with China infrastructure intensity of spending basically over, and gold being strongly correlated with the overall commodities cycle. Paul Tudor Jones is also bearish on commodities for at least the rest of this decade. http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-tudor-jones-and-druckenmiller-panel-2014-10
Then I suppose the scenario which he didn't talk about of the Chinese reminbi eventually displacing or sharing reserve currency status with the heavily debt ridden US Dollar is thus far away, which is why he still expects strong Dollar and weak commodities. Maybe this macro scenario is at least 10 or 15 years away. Burbank's focus is the next 5 years.
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Thank's for the video, I enjoyed Mr. Burbank's expertise, views when Victor Neiderhoffer was ending his Hedge Fund Dr. Burbank was starting his. How has Mr. Burbank's Fund fared during the Oil and Emerging Market Crisis?
In the video he did say he is out of EM other than China. As per this link, he is short oil thus must have done well enough http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/03/john-burbank-2014-letter/
How bad I wonder does he feel the EMs are, do you find it strange how Markets change so quick as if the World Economy magically got better on October 1st from all the pain and terror of the last ten days of September?
Last September we had prices fall off a cliff on stocks I loved, I remember buying Blackstone Calls (March $30 2015) for $90 bucks and selling them at $7.00, Kroger, MO $40s, NKE $80s, PEP $90s, DPZ, ect. By December most of these stocks blow up on September like NKE and PEP were up massively. My NKE $85s were bought after NKE fell from $88 to $83 for no reason. NKE soon blows past $90, PEP fell to $88 only to hit $97 by December. Trying to remember the exact pricing on each stock without looking it up last year is hard, this time the selling felt more intense than last year. What do you think?
Last September we had prices fall off a cliff on stocks I loved, I remember buying Blackstone Calls (March $30 2015) for $90 bucks and selling them at $7.00, Kroger, MO $40s, NKE $80s, PEP $90s, DPZ, ect. By December most of these stocks blow up on September like NKE and PEP were up massively. My NKE $85s were bought after NKE fell from $88 to $83 for no reason. NKE soon blows past $90, PEP fell to $88 only to hit $97 by December. Trying to remember the exact pricing on each stock without looking it up last year is hard, this time the selling felt more intense than last year. What do you think?
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BX Calls hit $.90 once BX was $26.56 I kept buying because they paid a fat dividend, how could you resist these discounts. Look at this time period last Year, I don't think Price is done going down because Oil's implosion began here, what say you?
Oil Traders got warned in Early October something was wrong, I was trading all the MLPs and bought BBEP, LINE, UBS Etracs (LMLP I was the only buyer on those Etacs) were selling for nothing and returned up, LINE and BBEP were acting sick by December telling us we need to watch out.
