Joe Doaks Backtests Unlikely Strategies

In future kindly chart something other than ES. All ES traders are in thrall to Jack Hershey and believe in the self-fulfilling prophecy that price trends and channels. I am from the old school that says the estimator IS the trend line, MA's being the poor man's estimator. For lack of higher mathemagical skills.
 
Quote from Joe Doaks:

Eddie, the speed ratio is the ratio of the settings of the two EneMAs, par exemple, 100:25, which specific rat-io will do you no good at all intraday. But I am not joking. EMAs work because The Street's algorithmicists are too dumb to handle anything more complicated. For years I have tried to popularize the adaptive Kalman filter, to no avail, because they can't understand it. It's engineering, as opposed to pure math, haha! What do we sparkies know?
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Yes, thanks for the crumbs once again Riddler, but i think i see what you are saying,, And yes, I know to each there own, the research must be done by myself, but thanks for tip and for the follow through answer,,

And I will look up the Kalman filter..

E.F.
 
Leaqualizer, if you know how to design multi-state adaptive Kalman filters, you can estimate the evolution of any physical process you have the insight to model. Understanding the differences between market prices and physical processes, which using a Kalman to model a market surely will teach you, is a priceless experience.
 
Quote from Joe Doaks:

In future kindly chart something other than ES. All ES traders are in thrall to Jack Hershey and believe in the self-fulfilling prophecy that price trends and channels. I am from the old school that says the estimator IS the trend line, MA's being the poor man's estimator. For lack of higher mathemagical skills.
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Quote from Trader666:
Here are links to a few of my backtests of Jackass Hershey's "methods."

Every once in a while, Hershey would screw up and describe something in enough detail to backtest it. But when someone posts results, his apologists and bootlickers come out of the woodwork with new rules that were not part of the original method that they claim should have been a part of the test.
Bottom line: study these posts carefully and you'll see Hershey and his cult are drinking kool-aid.

Beware: ET mods are also brainwashed and Baron doesn't yet know how bad the problem is becoming!!

"Rocket" testing methodology:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1078242#post1078242
"Rocket" equity curve:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1112121
Buying the 0 to 7 turn of the "P,V Boolean relation" methodology:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...278985&highlight=bu ying+boolean#post1278985
"P,V Boolean relation" equity curve:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1278986
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Thanks for Hershey backtest info!
Be careful and avoid the Cult Kool-Aid!
<img src="http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/4073/koolaidnf5.gif">
 
Given, backtesting is the effective equivelant of burying treasure, so as to feign surprise when you get there and find some scoundrel made off with the goods in the meantime,
do you have any plans to forward test likely strategies?

I realise its highly counterintuitive, but i like to try and think outside the box.
 
Quote from Joe Doaks:

Leaqualizer, if you know how to design multi-state adaptive Kalman filters, you can estimate the evolution of any physical process you have the insight to model. Understanding the differences between market prices and physical processes, which using a Kalman to model a market surely will teach you, is a priceless experience.
More...
Hypo puffer, a priceless experience it shall be.

Phil T. R. Kalman
 
Quantsteve, laugh it up. After several years of trying I finally achieved a reliable mathematical representation of rockets and am able to distinguish a dud from one that will make orbit.
 
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