What’s even more important than a few percent in the black vote is the amount of hemorrhaging the Dems have done with the Hispanic vote. This could play a major role in AZ and NV as the trend appears to be continuing. It has already cost them FL. I think at the end of the day progressives would show up against Trump or DeSantis. DeSantis signed a 6-week abortion ban in FL and that would do a lot of damage to him in the General. Hard to walk that one back. At the end of the day the election will come down to NV, AZ, GA, NC, MI, WI, and PA. I don’t think Beshear could beat Trump in KY, but unlike Newsom, his brand could sell well in the Rustbelt, NC, and GA. Remember that it’s not like Trump has a high approval rating either. I’d argue that those who disapprove of both Trump and Biden are more likely to back Biden. Lots of people disapprove of Biden, think he’s too old and incompetent, but at the same time absolutely hate Trump and would vote for just about anybody over him, including a rotting corpse.
