Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2006

[Ricter]

"Highlights
Improvement is convincing in jobless claims where lower levels spell lower levels for unemployment readings. Initial claims edged 1,000 lower to a lower-than-expected 287,000 in the October 4 week while the 4-week average fell a very sharp 7,250 in the week to 287,750. From a month ago, the average is down 7,500 which is a comparison that offers an early hint of strength for the October employment report. The average is also at a new recovery low, its lowest level since February 2006.

"Continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, tell the same story. Continuing claims in the September 27 week fell 21,000 to 2.381 million for a new recovery low while the 4-week average fell 28,000 to a new recovery low of 2.414 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged for a 4th straight week at a recovery low of 1.8 percent.

"Layoffs may be down but that doesn't always spell a corresponding increase in hiring which may still be lagging. Nevertheless, claims data are a certain positive for the labor market. There are no special factors in today's report."

 

[Tsing Tao]

Yep. There can't be firing when there's no hiring, after all.

 

[Ricter]

Yep. There can't be firing when there's no hiring, after all.

False.

 

[Tsing Tao]

False.

So you think that when employment has reached the minimum possible amount to operate, you'd expect turnover to be at it's highest? Or were you just responding to my question as if it were absolutely literal?

Please explain how, when companies reach the absolutely minimum employment base to keep producing that they can continue to lay off.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Just for added conversation, and to support my assertion...

US Hiring Plummets Most Since June 2010, Fewest Hires Since Polar Vortex Ground Economy To A Halt

On the surface, today's JOLTS report (which after we caught the BLS fabricating the data aggressively a year ago is triple-scrubbed by government bureaucrats) was great: with total job openings of 4,835K, this was supposedly the highest number of job openings since January 2001, and just shy of the record high 5,273 seen in January of the same year, just before the recession hit to be precise.

There was, however, a big problem. Because while according to the BLS survey employers have almost never had more open positions, they have also decided to put an abrupt stop to hiring, something which certainly points to a major disconnect in the US labor market. In fact, according to the JOLTS report, its far less tracked "Hirings" number plunged from 4,934K to just 4,640K. This was the lowest number of monthly hiring since January's "Polar Vortex" ground the economy to a halt. What's worse, the 294K plunge in monthly hiring was the biggest monthly drop since June 2010, and was the third biggest monthly plunge in hiring since Lehman!





And putting this number in context, because hiring is a leading indicator to key payroll inflection point, one wonders: with TTM job gains having plateaued at 2.6 millio and hires tumbling, is this about to ripple through the labor force and result in a major drop in the October payrolls?



For the answer: check back in just under a month.

Source: JOLTS, St Louis Fed

 

[Ricter]

"US Hiring Plummets Most Since..." Wow, look at those trends from 2008! Good job, Mr. President.

Consumer Comfort Index
"Highlights
"The weekly Bloomberg measure of consumer confidence is more positive than recent monthly measures by other surveys. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. increased last week by the most since mid-November as households grew more optimistic about the economy and buying climate.

"The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index climbed to 36.8 in the period ended October 5 from a four-month low of 34.8. A gauge of attitudes about the world's largest economy registered the biggest increase since 2007.

"According to Bloomberg, a pickup in hiring, more job openings and lower gasoline prices are combining to brighten Americans' spirits even as the stock market languishes. While today's figures showed confidence improved among the college educated, homeowners and almost all income groups, the weekly gain left sentiment close to its third-quarter average.

"The Bloomberg gauge of sentiment about the state of the economy, climbed to 25.6 last week, the highest since the end of August, from 22.4.

"The buying climate index, which asks whether this is a good time to make purchases, increased to 33.8, the highest since mid-July, from 31.9.

"Bloomberg stated that the gain probably reflected cheaper prices at the gas pump, which helps free up money to spend elsewhere. The average nationwide cost of a gallon dropped to an eight-month low of $3.27 on Oct. 7, according to data from AAA, the nation's largest motoring group.

"The Bloomberg measure of personal finances rose to 51 from 50.2, extending to 19 the number of weeks it's held above 50.

"Today's report showed confidence among homeowners rose to its highest level since December 2007. Sentiment also improved for renters, though the gap between the two groups was the second-largest in four years.

"Confidence among those earning more than $100,000 a year also advanced this week to 61.6, the highest level since the middle of April. Among those earning less than $50,000 confidence increased to 25.7, narrowing the gap between the two income groups after it reached its widest point since November. Sentiment rose in six of seven wage brackets."

 

[Tsing Tao]

So you think that when employment has reached the minimum possible amount to operate, you'd expect turnover to be at it's highest? Or were you just responding to my question as if it were absolutely literal?

Please explain how, when companies reach the absolutely minimum employment base to keep producing that they can continue to lay off.

So no answer, then.

 

[Tsing Tao]

"According to Bloomberg, a pickup in hiring, more job openings and lower gasoline prices are combining to brighten Americans' spirits even as the stock market languishes.

Stock market languishes? What year is this reporting from?

 

[Ricter]

So no answer, then.

Your question is nonsense, akin to, "do you drive to work or take your lunch?"

Those charts you posted have shot down your own argument, lol. And by the way, was that you arguing six months ago that the severe weather last winter had nothing to do with the Q1 economic slowdown? Because your post asserts the opposite. LOL.

 

[Ricter]

Stock market languishes? What year is this reporting from?

It's a weekly report, what has the stock market done this last week?