Job numbers hot, rates up, inflation up... markets up big-time?

[NoahA]

No.

Market had already broken to the downside and was in a downtrend.
The opening low offered support, and was accepted.

Many of you could solve an analysis problem if you just add a 0.1% fudge factor to your Hz lines. In this case it looks like ±4 handles worked fine. Particularly if you use the bar close.

Some people use a 5pt stop. So a 4pt dip can easily take someone out depending on where they entered.

You're welcome to show your trades if you're doing much better than the ideas I suggest.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Some people use a 5pt stop. So a 4pt dip can easily take someone out depending on where they entered.

You're welcome to show your trades if you're doing much better than the ideas I suggest.

That sounds like a personal preference for stop size, rather than what market is telling.

As for your suggestion(s), I have no idea what you are talking about. You posted a chart and a question. I offered you my analysis AND a suggestion!!
You didn't agree with it or just didn't like it. Clearly, MY trades would be of no value to you.

Do the work Noah.

 

[SunTrader]

Here is my take on Friday's NFP drop, and reversal (TD Setup and Sequential both directions):-

 

[NoahA]

Here is my take on Friday's NFP drop, and reversal (TD Setup and Sequential both directions):-
View attachment 324767

But your take, do you mean here is how you draw boxes after the fact??

 

[SunTrader]

But your take, do you mean here is how you draw boxes after the fact??

It is done by software (I bought from Tom DeMark's company years ago) live, to the tick.

 

[Sergio123]

I have a much simpler explanation....It's Friday and it needs it.

Next week is Friday the 13th. Then the following week is the anniversary of Black Monday. Then earnings season. And Last but not ...Halloween.

I just manage risk and trade the market in front of me.

Look at that....One week ago everyone was scratching their heads wondering why the markets shot up on hot job numbers.....One week later a nice pullback and a move up on the VIX on no new news events.

It was due, but was it merely a coincidence that it occurred on October Friday the 13th?
I think not.

 

[piezoe]

I averaged 41% compounded return for 18 years

??? Did you mean perhaps mean 41% 18-Year cumulative return. Not very good! If that's what you meant.

For comparison, Here is Citidel's Performance for 2020- 2023 for example: Citadel Advisors Performance History

Performance Metric 3-Year Annualized Return and 3-Year Cumulative Return

Top 20 Holdings Weighted
13.33%
45.56%

Top 20 Holdings Unweighted
10.61%
35.33%

Top 50 Holdings Weighted
13.41%
45.87%

Top 50 Holdings Unweighted
12.86%
43.75%