I would have been happy to wait and get it at $5!
JMBA undervalued
- Thread starter tradestrong
- Start date
I would have been happy to wait and get it at $5!
Steady on! - like I said, we're all different people trading different strategies - a different opinion is not necessarily a wrong one. Just because I'm not currently trading in JMBA, doesn't mean it's not the right trade for someone else.....as a professional, I know and accept that.
There's no need for a post like that damnit - we're all here to contribute our opinions in an open discussion, whether you agree with those opinions or not.
Thanks
Damian
Professional U.S. Share Trader
Sounds like you fell in love with the stock and company. I have made that mistake too most notably JSDA. Got to trade these stocks like the whores they are and don't get attached to them.
Sure, the picture looks great, the product is good but then you rely on hope and follow it into a sinkhole.
Sure it may bounce back, may be a HANS, etc...but the odds are stacked against you. Stocks like these are momentum plays and thats all. You can catch 10-15% dead cat bounces after precipitous declines but thats all they are good for and then you bail.
Sure, the picture looks great, the product is good but then you rely on hope and follow it into a sinkhole.
Sure it may bounce back, may be a HANS, etc...but the odds are stacked against you. Stocks like these are momentum plays and thats all. You can catch 10-15% dead cat bounces after precipitous declines but thats all they are good for and then you bail.
I don't mean to rub salt into your wound, p-n-d, but JSDA doesn't have near the valuation as JMBA. And, Jones Soda is trying to find a niche spot is a crowded and competitive industry. Jamba is an industry leader.
I am not in love with the stock. The stock is just a small part of my investment strategy. But like all of my investments, I followed Jamba for some time, researched them, and talked to management. This is not a pump and dump stock. You play momentum on stocks that don't have solid fundamentals behind them. For a company like Jamba, the stock will make a steady climb once the fear in the market settles.
This is not an attempt to get anyone to invest. I only started on this thread because the original poster was met with nothing but negativity from posters who had obviously not had Jamba, specifically, on their radar. I have been watching it for some time, so I thought I'd lend my perspective.
General theories don't work with every situation. Jamba happens to be a rare situation.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/11/23/wednesdays-worst-stocks-in-the-world.aspx
" Worser
Next up is smoothie sultan Jamba, which, these days at least, is wearing a dull crown. Bearish CAPS investor stocksracer put it starkly in late October:
Costs are killing this wonderful drink brand company. I personally love Jamba Juices. They are healthy and [boost] my spirits. However, the current management is not getting it done for the stockholders. The stock will dip further this season.
Oh how right he was. Third-quarter earnings were awful.
I know, it doesn't look like it at first glance. Revenue rose 24%. Comps were up 3.3% systemwide. And Jamba opened 24 new company-owned stores during the quarter. (New stores tend to do very well for Jamba.)
Here's the problem: Where Jamba is supposed to be strongest, in its home state of California, comps rose just 1.2%. That at least suggests the juicer isn't able to command the same brand power as Starbucks and Chipotle.
Of course, as the owner of more than a handful of shares of Jamba, I'd love to be wrong about that. "
Let's watch this one....
" Worser
Next up is smoothie sultan Jamba, which, these days at least, is wearing a dull crown. Bearish CAPS investor stocksracer put it starkly in late October:
Costs are killing this wonderful drink brand company. I personally love Jamba Juices. They are healthy and [boost] my spirits. However, the current management is not getting it done for the stockholders. The stock will dip further this season.
Oh how right he was. Third-quarter earnings were awful.
I know, it doesn't look like it at first glance. Revenue rose 24%. Comps were up 3.3% systemwide. And Jamba opened 24 new company-owned stores during the quarter. (New stores tend to do very well for Jamba.)
Here's the problem: Where Jamba is supposed to be strongest, in its home state of California, comps rose just 1.2%. That at least suggests the juicer isn't able to command the same brand power as Starbucks and Chipotle.
Of course, as the owner of more than a handful of shares of Jamba, I'd love to be wrong about that. "
Let's watch this one....
Most people who have been following Jamba have probably read that article by now. There's nothing threatening in it. In fact, if you'll notice, the guy said that he owns "more than a handful" of the stock. The guys at Motley Fool do their research, even if they're not always right. He bought a significant share of Jamba for some reason, and likely for much more sound reasons than the reasons for which people are selling it.
As for his analysis of Jamba's 3Q, I'd have to disagree. He notes that the growth in California is lower than that of other Jamba stores. Well, one of the big reasons for the markets recent woes is the housing crisis. It hit harder in California than in most places. Any rise in California at all is an accomplishment. Many companies are getting falls in sales in the state.
Also, the fact that the sales have done so well outside of California is the biggest story. The concerns of many were about whether Jamba could have success outside of it's home state. It has proven that it can.
The decline in stock price will have people coming out of the woodwork with reasons. These analysts make their living from it. Still, fundamentally there is nothing to point to. The decline was an over-sell in a fear driven market.
Now, the same fundamentals that enticed the author of that article to buy the stock are still strong, and the price is significantly lower. If anything he probably just wishes that he waited to buy. Many do.
How about 50% in 5 trading days?
This stock has gone from a low of 2.99 to a high of 4.50 in that time.
Why??...because of strong fundamentals and a good cash flow with a brand name that helped them secure a new line of business:
"Shares of Jamba Inc. soared Tuesday after the company announced a worldwide licensing agreement with Nestle SA to develop a line of healthy ready-to-drink products under the Jamba brand name.
Set to launch in the second quarter of 2008, the line will include two product categories: smoothies and juices. Both will contain real fruit, low-fat or skim milk and Jamba's vitamin and mineral boosts. "
That's great. Hope you loaded the boat at the low.
Plenty of fish in the sea.
Another Quiet run. I have no play but been watching it.
FWIW, one of their stores went up in a mall near me in NY.
Good luck holding out. Back to where it was pre-dump off on earnings almost at 4.48.
FWIW, one of their stores went up in a mall near me in NY.
Good luck holding out. Back to where it was pre-dump off on earnings almost at 4.48.