Jim Simons Trashes Trend Following

kut2k2 said:
do you know Fooled by Technical Analysis is a good book, surf? You've just expressed surprise at the bizarre manner by which it is being sold
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Probably Surf gleaned from the website that the author had reached the same conclusions as Surf's own quant team, so he knows the author is on the right path.
 
I think HFT has changed markets a lot more than people think - what kind of trend is there in 2 microseconds? I don't understand the emotions in some of the posts in this thread. Reality wins not appeals for and against deities (Simons?).

Simons is either correct or incorrect (trends no longer work). If Simons is wrong and you know it, then shouldn't you agree with him in your posting and make more money using a known sound method? If he is right, then shouldn't you pay attention and learn from it? What Simons does, has, or believes has zero effect on my own trading - NONE AT ALL! Does his interview present a threat somehow to those using trend-following?

My recent thinking is that methods that work in inflationary times and deflationary times are completely different. Simons may simply be saying that inflation is low. Does anyone have any information on trading methods that work?

PS: Surf - I like the monkey in the picture. How is the god of options trading "Karen" doing these days? Those threads were similar to this thread and for the same reason I think. I have probably read 300 plus books on trading through the decades and the only result of that is to learn how little I really KNOW about the subject!
 
marketsurfer said:
Good stuff. Sounds like someone smart is reading marketsurfer. fooled by TA-- good book

And thanks for pointing out the quantocracy site. Love the tag line-- anecdotal evidence is not welcomed here--- :)
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Yesterday I finished reading the book for a second time. It is a remarkable book. I do not even know where to start. I will simple say this one

stop trading and read this book before you start again...
 
marketsurfer said:
as I have been saying for years, trend following is an ancient tactic that has no relevance in today's markets. No matter what its high priests like Mike Covel say:

08 JS: In the old days -- this is kind of a graph from the old days, commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend. Not necessarily the very light trend you see here, but trending in periods. And if you decided, OK, I'm going to predict today, by the average move in the past 20 days -- maybe that would be a good prediction, and I'd make some money. And in fact, years ago, such a system would work -- not beautifully, but it would work. You'd make money, you'd lose money, you'd make money. But this is a year's worth of days, and you'd make a little money during that period. It's a very vestigial system.

10:55 CA: So you would test a bunch of lengths of trends in time and see whether, for example, a 10-day trend or a 15-day trend was predictive of what happened next.

11:05 JS: Sure, you would try all those things and see what worked best. Trend-following would have been great in the '60s, and it was sort of OK in the '70s. By the '80s, it wasn't.
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marketsurfer said:
The "cogent" answers are untestable platitudes, appeals to authority or personal anecdotes--- sorry those things don't work in my world.

surf
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Evidently appeals to authority don't work in surf's world, unless HE is the one appealing to an authority (Jim Simons). :D :D
 
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